Israeli Exit Polls Show Deadlock and a Setback for Netanyahu in Wartime Election

Israel's first national election since the October 7, 2023 attacks ended Tuesday without a clear winner, if the exit polls hold. Three major Israeli networks updated their projections after voting closed and gave Gadi Eisenkot's bloc 52 seats to 50 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led camp. The remaining 18 seats of the 120-seat Knesset went to unaligned Arab parties. Neither side has a clear route to the 61 seats needed for a majority.

The turnout figure framed the night. The Central Elections Committee put participation at 77.7 percent, the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above the 2022 vote. Long lines formed outside polling stations. Voters were still dealing with the trauma of the day Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, and with the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed.

Not every outlet agreed. Some Israeli media, including the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14, projected a much stronger result for him, with his parties collectively winning 60 seats. Final results could take days. No single party has ever won 61 seats outright, so coalitions are the norm, and smaller parties may end up as kingmakers.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, called the exit polls a major defeat for Netanyahu's coalition, which they showed dropping from 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset to about 50. He did not call Eisenkot a clear winner, and cautioned that much could change as ballots are counted. If the final tally mirrors the polls, he said, Eisenkot could try to form a minority government that would remove Netanyahu, even if it lasted only until another election.

The deadlock could still favour Netanyahu, who could stay on in a caretaker capacity while parties negotiate. He is 77 and has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years. His opponents have dislodged him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years, and he was back eighteen months later. He entered this race facing long-running corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that let Hamas-led militants carry out their attack. He campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran, and argued that killing top Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian leaders made Israel and the world safer.

Eisenkot, 66, leads the Yashar party. A hawkish former military chief, he lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics four years ago, joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 attack, and quit eight months later, criticising the prime minister's leadership. He offers a break with Netanyahu and his far-right allies, but not with the hardline security approach: he opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas' military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He calls Israel's response a failure because Hamas remains in charge. Gaza health authorities say that war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians.

Eisenkot's problem is arithmetic. He has all but ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, which complicates his path even with the narrow lead. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said the Netanyahu bloc had suffered a crushing defeat and that the public had told it to go home. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, told supporters the nation had given them a duty to fortify democracy.

At the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth, an alliance of Arab parties, whistles and applause broke out when the exit polls were released, on a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Candidate Faten Gattas said they refuse occupation and racism and will remain. Candidates hoped strong Arab participation could help keep Netanyahu's coalition, the most far-right in Israel's history, from returning to power.

What to watch now is the official count over the coming days, and whether it confirms the networks' 52-50 split or the 60 seats Channel 14 projected for Netanyahu's camp.