On an evening when Israelis came out to vote in the highest turnout since 1999, the first exit polls offered a verdict that nobody could claim outright: neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's opposition reached the 61 seats that make a Knesset majority. The uncertainty reflects a nation still divided over security, accountability and the health of its democratic institutions, two decades after many of these arguments began. Whether the preliminary numbers hold will decide if the country moves toward a new government or remains locked in the kind of stalemate that has marked its
Israel Exit Polls Leave Netanyahu and Opposition Short of 61; Arab Parties Become Kingmakers
On an evening when Israelis came out to vote in the highest turnout since 1999, the first exit polls offered a verdict that nobody could claim outright: neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's opposition reached the 61 seats that make a Knesset majority. The uncertainty reflects a nation still divided over security, accountability and the health of its democratic institutions, two decades after many of these arguments began. Whether the preliminary numbers hold will decide if the country moves toward a new government or remains locked in the kind of stalemate that has marked its recent politics.
When polling stations closed at 10 pm on Tuesday, the first projections from three major Israeli channels told the same story: neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition had a clear path to the 61 seats needed in the 120-member Knesset. The vote was the first since the Hamas-led massacre of October 7, 2023, and it was taken amid deep disagreement over security, political accountability and the independence of the country's democratic institutions. Turnout reached 77.7 per cent by the close, the highest at that hour since 1999.
The numbers depended heavily on who was counting. One poll gave Netanyahu's bloc 55 seats, another 60, and a third left the two camps level at 51 each. Netanyahu first claimed a decisive majority and tied the vote to security, but as the split became clear his tone shifted to waiting for real results. Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, leading the Yashar party, said voters had chosen change and urged Netanyahu to accept the verdict and leave politics. His side, however, did not reach a majority either.
That gap has put the Arab parties in the spotlight. Mansour Abbas of Ra'am says he is hearing from both camps and is open to a government led by Eisenkot, but only if the arithmetic works. Even with Ra'am's seven seats, the opposition would fall two short. Some opposition groups have ruled out working with Arab parties at all, and smaller right-wing lists may not clear the electoral threshold, which could still reshape the outcome.
For now, these are only exit polls. The official count and the coalition talks that follow will show whether Eisenkot can assemble a workable majority, whether Netanyahu can hold his bloc together, or whether the deadlock deepens.
When polling stations in Israel closed at 10 pm on Tuesday, the first projections from Channels 11, 12 and 13 told the same basic story: neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition had a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.
The numbers diverged depending on who was counting. Direct Polls estimated 55 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 49 for the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, and 16 for the Arab parties. Kan 11's updated exit poll put the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps level at 51 seats each; its earlier projection had given them 50 and 52, as reported by The Times of Israel. Filber, in a survey presented by Channel 14, offered Netanyahu the brightest picture: 60 seats for his bloc, 43 for the opposition and 17 for the Arab parties.
The updated projections also moved individual parties. Netanyahu's Likud was shown rising from 25 to 27 seats. The left-wing Democrats alliance slipped from 10 to nine, and the far-right Otzma Yehudit dropped from seven to six.
The vote was the first since the Hamas-led massacre of October 7, 2023, and it was held amid sharp disagreement over national security, political accountability and the independence of Israel's democratic institutions. Turnout was high. By the 10 pm close, the Central Elections Committee put participation at 77.7 per cent, up from 70.6 per cent at the same hour in 2022 and the highest at that point since 1999.
Netanyahu, who has been at the centre of Israeli politics for 19 years, first claimed a "decisive majority" for his bloc and called for a strong right-wing national government. He tied the vote to security, saying, "Iran is weaker than ever, Israel is stronger than ever." As the close split became clear, his tone shifted. In an address to the public he said, "We are still waiting for real results," and described Likud as the largest party in Israel.
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who leads the Yashar party and had gained ground in several pre-election surveys, spoke at his headquarters after polls closed. He acknowledged the exit polls were preliminary but said voters had chosen change and rejected Netanyahu remaining as prime minister. He urged Netanyahu to accept the verdict and leave politics, and warned that another election would be a mistake given the turnout. The projections, however, did not give his side a majority either.
That is where the Arab parties come in. Mansour Abbas, chairman of Ra'am, said he was in contact with both camps. "Everyone is speaking with us, not just from the 'change bloc'," he told Channel 12. He signalled openness to joining a government led by Eisenkot, but said the arithmetic had to work, noting that "currently there aren't numbers for a government." Ra'am's projected seven seats would still leave the wider opposition two short of 61.
The main exit polls suggested the anti-Netanyahu factions could collectively reach around 70 seats, but that total depends on partners some are unwilling to take. The Times of Israel reported that several Zionist opposition groups have ruled out cooperating with Arab parties. The Joint List and Ra'am were together projected at 17 to 18 seats. The Jerusalem Post reported that some smaller right-wing parties might fall below the 3.25 per cent threshold for entering parliament, which could shift the final balance.
Exit polls are not results. The official count and the coalition talks that follow will show whether Eisenkot can assemble a workable majority, whether Netanyahu can hold his bloc together, or whether the deadlock deepens.
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