Two elections, separated by a single week, are drawing their meaning from the same distant conflict: a war that began in February, when the United States and Israel struck Iran and fell short of toppling its regime. Israelis will vote first, and Americans a week later, each in a moment when the war's costs, from rising fuel prices to a contested Strait of Hormuz, weigh on ordinary lives. In the larger human story, leaders on both sides of the ocean are asking whether force can secure safety and standing, and whether the voters who judge them will ask for restraint or for resolve.
Israel and US Elections Within a Week: How Two Votes Could Reshape Iran, Energy and the Global Economy
The Iran war has killed much of Iran's leadership and disrupted energy flows, and Iranian officials threaten attacks on civilian infrastructure such as airports, desalination plants and energy facilities.
The war's aim has shifted from toppling a regime to reopening a strait.
Mark
Why treat these two elections as one story?
Mimi
Because the Iran war runs through both. Netanyahu's campaign leans on the threat of new strikes, and Trump's midterms are weighed down by energy prices that the war pushed up.
Mark
Is there a direct overlap of voters?
Mimi
Yes. A lobby group says about half a million Israelis hold US passports and can vote in both. Its chairman expects around 10,000 absentee ballots from Israel in Michigan's Senate race.
Luke
That 10,000 is Marc Zell's estimate, and his group has a stake in the argument. Nothing in the piece independently confirms it.
Mark
What about the idea of strikes after the votes?
Mimi
Israeli media speculate Netanyahu might attack as caretaker prime minister and push for a unity government. A diplomat also says Trump will be in "legacy mode" after the midterms.
Luke
Note the wording. That's speculation and one anonymous diplomat. There are also contradictory reports on whether Trump restrained Netanyahu before polling. None of it is confirmed.
Mark
And Netanyahu's claims about Iran's nuclear threat?
Luke
Made without evidence, per the report. That stays unresolved.
Mimi
What is on record is Trump's post saying anyone other than Bibi would leave America unwilling to do the work, and Eisenkot refusing a unity government.
Mark
What would a Democratic Congress change?
Luke
It could restrain spending and aid, but Trump keeps a veto and executive power. Beyond that, the outcome is unknown.
El Pulso
- Israel votes Tuesday, and a US midterm follows a week later, with the Iran war hanging over both campaigns.
- Netanyahu has floated fresh strikes on Iran, while reports say Trump held him back over fears of higher energy prices.
- Iranian officials threaten airports, desalination plants, energy facilities and undersea cables, raising the stakes for civilians across the region.
- Netanyahu may seek a unity government after the vote, and Trump has signalled he will act alone only if Israel's leadership is weak, leaving the next strike undecided.
Two elections, separated by a single week, are drawing their meaning from the same distant conflict: a war that began in February, when the United States and Israel struck Iran and fell short of toppling its regime. Israelis will vote first, and Americans a week later, each in a moment when the war's costs, from rising fuel prices to a contested Strait of Hormuz, weigh on ordinary lives. In the larger human story, leaders on both sides of the ocean are asking whether force can secure safety and standing, and whether the voters who judge them will ask for restraint or for resolve.
On Tuesday, Israelis go to the polls to choose a new parliament, and a week later Americans elect a new Congress. Analyst James Landale argues the two votes are bound together by the war the US and Israel launched against Iran in February, a war that killed much of Iran's leadership but did not topple the regime. Iran answered by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz and the energy that flows through it, and the war's aims have since narrowed to reopening that waterway.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has used his campaign to press for a new attack on Iran, offering claims about its nuclear threat without evidence. Trump has endorsed him and urged him to finish the job, though reports suggest Trump held back a strike over fears that higher energy prices would remind Americans of an unpopular war. Netanyahu's rival, Gadi Eisenkot, has ruled out a unity government with him, while warning against escalating the war for political ends.
In the United States, cost of living dominates the midterms, and the war has pushed prices higher. Democrats are fracturing over support for Israel, and Trump's own remedies, from Russian diesel to pressure on Ukraine, have not yet worked. What happens in the days after both votes may decide whether the strikes resume.
On Tuesday, voters in Israel go to the polls to choose a new parliament. A week later, voters in the United States elect a new Congress. The timing is a quirk of the electoral calendar, but BBC analyst James Landale argues the two votes are bound together by more than the calendar: the war the US and Israel launched against Iran in February sits at the center of both.
There is a literal link between the electorates. The lobby group Republicans Overseas Israel estimates that about half a million Israelis hold American passports and can vote in both elections. Its chairman, Marc Zell, told the BBC that these voters could matter in tight US races, and estimated that 10,000 absentee ballots would be cast from Israel in the Michigan Senate contest. "They can really make a difference," he said. That figure is Zell's own estimate.
The deeper connection is policy. The aerial assault that began in February destroyed many military targets and killed much of Iran's leadership, but it did not topple the regime. Iran hit back across the Gulf and took control of the Strait of Hormuz and the energy that moves through it. The war's aims have shifted since. The US and Israel began by seeking to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles, degrade its nuclear capability, weaken its proxy militias and even remove the regime. The aim now is to reopen the Strait.
The campaigns have already shaped decisions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has used his campaign to talk up a fresh attack on Iran, making new claims, without evidence, about Iran's nuclear threat and repeating that the regime must go. The aim, according to the analysis, is to rebuild his standing as a security leader after the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu's re-election and said both men should "soon finish the job." Yet there are also contradictory reports that Trump held Netanyahu back from striking before election day, worried that higher energy prices would remind Americans of an unpopular war.
Israeli media speculate that Netanyahu could try to attack Iran as caretaker prime minister after the vote, then argue for a national unity government that includes him rather than an opposition coalition. Losing power would expose him to an official inquiry into his conduct before 7 October and renewed corruption proceedings. His rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has ruled out joining any unity government. Eisenkot, like most mainstream Israeli politicians, sees Iran as an existential threat and backs military action, but he has warned against escalating the war for political ends.
Trump may also be freer to act after the midterms. One Western diplomat told Landale that Trump will then be in "legacy mode" and will "want to show agency on anything that is not the quagmire at home." Some analysts think Iran is so weakened economically that new strikes could prompt Iranians to overthrow the regime; others call that wishful thinking, noting it is a strategy that has repeatedly failed. Trump has also tied his stance to Israel's vote, writing that if Israel has "anyone other than Bibi" as leader, America would have to do the work itself and he is "not inclined to do so." Iranian officials have threatened to hit airports, pipelines, undersea cables, energy facilities, desalination plants, US bases and warships. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in the Financial Times that new attacks would put civilian lives, regional states and the global economy at great risk.
The economy links the two races as well. Cost of living dominates the midterm campaign, worsened by the war's effect on prices as Iran choked energy flows. In Israel, high costs and low wages are issues, and soaring defence spending strains public finances. Trump lifted sanctions on Russia, hoping diesel imports from Moscow would lower prices, and pressed Ukraine for concessions, seeking a foreign policy win; neither has worked so far. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said that if Trump wants lower energy prices, he should solve the Iran problem rather than do "a solid" for Vladimir Putin.
Bipartisan US support for Israel has fractured. Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed campaigns on cutting military aid. New York congressional candidate Brad Lander traveled to the West Bank days before the vote, helped Palestinians harvest olives and was briefly detained by Israeli forces. Even Netanyahu warns Israel may one day have to survive without US backing. A Democratic gain in Congress could allow limits on military spending and aid, but Trump would keep executive powers and a veto. What happens in the days after both votes may decide whether strikes resume.
Citas Notables
If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.— Donald Trump, on social media
After the midterms, he will be in legacy mode.— Western diplomat, speaking to the BBC
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