Iran Doubts Trump's Bluff as Gulf Allies Push for Talks Over Strikes

On the same day crowds gathered at government-organized rallies in Tehran to declare they were ready to die as martyrs, President Trump stood before reporters at the White House and sounded like a man looking for a way out. "There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out," he said. "If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I'd be very happy."

Later in the afternoon he explained on Truth Social why a planned strike, which he said had been set for Tuesday, was not going ahead. He was holding off, he wrote, at the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In his telling, serious negotiations were underway, and the three leaders believed a deal "very acceptable" to the United States would result. He also said he had told the Pentagon to be ready to launch a full, large-scale assault on Iran on a moment's notice if no acceptable deal emerged.

The Gulf states' motives are the part of the story with the most weight. Axios reported that one U.S. official described a unified message from Doha, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh: give negotiations a chance, because if the United States hits Iran, everyone pays. A second source with knowledge told Axios that Trump had relayed to some of his hawkish political allies that the three Arab leaders did not want their oil and energy facilities blown up in Iranian retaliation. Both accounts are anonymous and secondhand, and they describe fear of what Iran might do in response.

The Washington Examiner's Daily on Defense newsletter also carries a related headline saying Trump would accept a 20-year ban on uranium enrichment by Iran. The summary offered here does not lay out the terms in detail, so it is best read as a reported negotiating position rather than a settled one.

In Washington, skepticism came from the Democratic side too. Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, who sits on the Intelligence committees, told CNN he would not predict what Trump would do, but noted the president was due to meet his national security team in the Situation Room. He characterized Iran's latest response on a proposed deal, according to reports, as more words and not much substantive action on its nuclear program.

Trump, meanwhile, spent part of the day attacking coverage of the war. In a long Truth Social post, he argued that even if Iran's entire military walked out of Tehran with hands raised and its leadership signed surrender documents, outlets including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and CNN would still report an Iranian victory. The complaint was aimed at reporting that the war is not going as planned and that Iran's leadership is now even harder-line.

The doubt is not confined to the press. Retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, Trump's first national security adviser, posted on X that it was "high time" for America to extract itself from a "very messy situation." His advice was to "Declare Victory and Come Home," and he argued that Iranians inside the country must settle their internal situation themselves. He warned against being pulled into a "war vortex" by advisers who say one more push will win it, without weighing the consequences or the mood of the American public.

Congress will get its own look at the war on Tuesday. Adm. Brad Cooper, the U.S. Central Command chief overseeing the Iran campaign, testifies at 10 a.m. before the House Armed Services Committee, alongside Africa Command's Gen. Dagvin Anderson and Pentagon policy official Daniel Zimmerman. Two Senate budget hearings with Army and Navy leaders follow the same morning.

What to watch now is simple: whether the talks the Gulf leaders vouched for produce a deal, or whether Trump gives the order for the assault he has told the Pentagon to keep ready.