Hormuz traffic halts as regional war threatens global oil supplies

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between Oman and Iran through which one-fifth of the world's oil flows, went silent over the weekend. Lloyd's List, the maritime intelligence firm that tracks such things, reported Sunday that no major crude tankers had passed through since Saturday night. By Monday, the numbers told the story of a waterway in crisis: only 72 ships had moved through on Sunday, compared to the typical 116 daily average. The reason was straightforward and terrifying. On Saturday morning, Israel and the United States launched airstrikes on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader. Iran responded with waves of missiles targeting Israel, Gulf nations, and American military installations across the region. The Joint Maritime Information Center, which monitors the strait's safety, raised its threat assessment to critical.

The danger was not theoretical. Beginning Sunday, merchant vessels began reporting attacks. An oil tanker came under fire off Musandam, on Oman's coast, injuring four crew members; all twenty aboard were evacuated. The Marshall Islands-flagged product tanker MKD VYOM was struck by what appeared to be a projectile while sailing near Muscat. The impact triggered an explosion and fire. One crew member, working in the engine room at the moment of impact, was killed. V.Ships, the vessel's manager, confirmed the death in a statement released Sunday. A second ship north of Muscat was hit by an unknown projectile and caught fire. On Monday, the attacks continued. Off Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, an unknown projectile exploded near a vessel; the crew was unharmed. Near Bahrain's port, another ship was struck twice by projectiles, caught fire, and was evacuated. The crew survived.

The shipping industry responded with swift, coordinated retreat. Maersk, the Danish container giant, announced Monday that it was suspending all new bookings on routes between the Indian subcontinent and the Upper Gulf—the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The company said it was pausing transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well, citing crew and cargo safety. Hapag-Lloyd, the German carrier, followed suit. France's CMA CGM instructed its vessels to seek shelter and stop moving through the waterway. Japan's NYK Line and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, among the world's largest ship operators, halted all transits. MSC, the world's biggest container shipping company, told its fleet to remain in designated safe areas rather than approach the region. Cosco, China's shipping giant, advised its vessels in the Gulf to complete operations only where safe and to anchor immediately.

What made this moment so consequential was what the Strait of Hormuz represents to the global economy. In 2024, approximately one-fifth of all petroleum liquid shipments passed through this chokepoint. Iran has never formally closed the waterway, but its officials have threatened to do so repeatedly. A sustained closure would send shocks through energy markets unevenly distributed across the world. India, which imports nearly eighty-five percent of its crude oil, sources much of it through the strait. Rising oil prices would strain the country's balance of payments and pressure the rupee, according to Pankaj Srivastava, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. China, the world's largest crude importer, sources between forty and fifty percent of its oil from Gulf producers—Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. Nearly all of that crude moves through the Strait of Hormuz. There is no alternative maritime route from the Gulf to East Asia; existing pipelines from the region run westward toward Europe, not east.

The market was already responding. Brent crude, the global benchmark, reached a fifty-two-week high on Monday, climbing more than eight percent to eighty dollars a barrel. The price movement reflected not just the immediate disruption but the fear of what might come next—a prolonged closure that would force the world's two most populous nations and largest energy consumers to scramble for alternatives that do not exist. The strait remained open, technically. But with the major shipping lines withdrawing their vessels and attacks continuing, the question was no longer whether it would close, but how long it could remain functionally operational.