Higgs' Progressive Conservatives Win Majority in New Brunswick's Pandemic-Era Election

On election night in Quispamsis, New Brunswick, about 50 supporters stood two metres apart in a bingo hall, all of them in masks, to watch Premier Blaine Higgs claim a majority government. When he walked to the stage with his wife and two daughters, all four wore full face shields. At the podium he took his off, looked over the thin crowd and said, with a smile, "There's nothing like coming to a packed hall. This is life in COVID."

The result was clear once every vote was counted. The Progressive Conservatives took 27 of the 49 seats, the Liberals 17, the Greens three and the People's Alliance two. A majority required 25. It was the first election held in Canada since the pandemic emerged, and Higgs used his speech to thank New Brunswickers for showing the country that a democratic vote could be held safely. He also said that, whatever came in the months and years ahead, the province would have stability and experience guiding it through difficult times.

The win ended a gamble. Higgs had called the snap election four weeks earlier, arguing that his 21-month-old minority government lacked the stability the province needed. The opposition called it political opportunism. Higgs bet that voters would not see it that way, given the widespread praise he had earned for handling the fast-moving COVID-19 crisis. At dissolution the house stood at 20 Tories, 20 Liberals, three Greens, three People's Alliance members, one Independent and two vacancies. In the final week he said a majority would let his party focus on health care and keeping people safe, and that anything less would put the province at risk. The 66-year-old former Irving Oil executive had cast himself as dull but dependable. "Maybe I'm boring, but I'm no surprise," he said last month. "I'm consistent. You can trust me."

The 28-day campaign, which began Aug. 17, looked nothing like a normal one. Few candidates went door to door, and those who did wore masks and kept their distance. There were no handshakes, no baby-kissing and no big rallies. Literature went out by mail, and leaders appeared at outdoor events that were livestreamed, with masked candidates standing well behind them. At most stops Higgs wore a plastic face shield.

Past New Brunswick campaigns turned on divisive questions such as hydraulic fracturing, soaring auto insurance rates and the possible privatization of the Crown-owned utility NB Power. This one was about COVID-19. The province has one of the lowest infection levels in the country, behind only P.E.I. and the territories, and Higgs made that his main talking point. He also cited forecasts that New Brunswick was leading Canada in economic recovery, and noted its economy had contracted less than the rest of the country because the virus was contained quickly. The Tories credited all of it to his leadership.

Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers took a bleaker view. He said the Tories were pretending everything had returned to normal when businesses were still feeling the effects of the pandemic. He accused Higgs of heeding political advisers rather than New Brunswickers and said nobody wanted or needed the election. Vickers, acclaimed Liberal leader in 2019, was formerly the House of Commons sergeant-at-arms, credited with fatally shooting a gunman who fired a rifle inside Centre Block in 2014. Soon after Higgs spoke, he announced he was stepping down. "Obviously with the results of this evening, it's time for another leader to step up and take this party forward," he said, adding that he hoped his successor would carry the torch higher.

The smaller parties had urged voters not to hand anyone a majority, pointing to an all-party cabinet committee that had managed the COVID-19 response well under the minority arrangement. Green Leader David Coon, who had also accused Higgs of opportunism, said the result showed the need for electoral reform so premiers could not simply have their way. People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin said he was disappointed but vowed to keep pressing for change, insisting his party still had its foot in the door. The NDP, led on an interim basis by 23-year-old Mackenzie Thomason, was shut out again, as in 2018.

It is the first time since Bernard Lord's re-election in 2003 that a New Brunswick government has won two consecutive terms. But the Tories made few gains in French-speaking regions. They dominate the English-speaking ridings of central and southern New Brunswick, while the Liberals hold the French-speaking north, a split that emerged after 2018. With Vickers leaving, the Liberals must now choose a new leader.