Higgs' Progressive Conservatives win majority in New Brunswick's COVID-era election

In a bingo hall in Quispamsis, New Brunswick, about 50 supporters stood two metres apart in masks on Monday night and watched Premier Blaine Higgs claim a majority government. When he and his wife and two daughters walked to the stage, all four wore full face shields. At the podium Higgs removed his, looked over the thin crowd and said, with a smile, "There's nothing like coming to a packed hall. This is life in COVID."

The final count gave the Progressive Conservatives 27 of the 49 seats in the legislature, two more than the 25 needed for a majority. The Liberals took 17, the Greens three and the People's Alliance two. The vote was the first held in Canada since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged. Higgs thanked New Brunswickers for showing the country how a democratic election can be held safely, and said that whatever came in the months and years ahead, the province would have stability and experience leading it through difficult times.

It was a gamble that paid off. Higgs, a 66-year-old former Irving Oil executive, had called the snap election four weeks earlier, saying his 21-month-old minority government lacked the stability the province needed. When the legislature was dissolved, the Tories held 20 seats, the Liberals 20, the Greens three and the People's Alliance three, with one Independent and two vacancies. Opposition rivals accused him of political opportunism. Higgs bet voters would not see it that way, given the widespread praise he had earned for handling the pandemic. In the campaign's final week he argued that he needed a majority to focus on health care and keeping people safe, and that any other outcome would put the province at risk. His pitch was plain: "Maybe I'm boring, but I'm no surprise."

The campaign ran 28 days from Aug. 17, and it looked nothing like a normal one. Few candidates knocked on doors, and those who did wore masks and kept their distance. There were no handshakes, no baby-kissing and no big rallies. Literature went out by mail, and leaders held outdoor events that were livestreamed, with masked candidates standing well behind them. At most stops Higgs wore a plastic face shield.

Past New Brunswick campaigns have turned on polarizing issues such as hydraulic fracturing, soaring auto insurance rates and the possible privatization of NB Power. This one was almost entirely about COVID-19. The province has one of the lowest infection levels in the country, behind only P.E.I. and the territories, and Higgs made that his main talking point. He also cited forecasts suggesting New Brunswick was leading the country in economic recovery, and noted that its economy had contracted less than the rest of Canada's because the virus was contained quickly. The Tories credited his leadership. Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers countered that the Conservatives were pretending things had returned to normal while businesses were still feeling the effects of the pandemic. He also accused Higgs of heeding political advisers rather than New Brunswickers, saying the election was neither wanted nor needed.

Vickers announced soon after Higgs's speech that he would step down. "It's time for another leader to step up and take this party forward," he said, adding that he hoped his successor would carry the torch higher. Acclaimed Liberal leader in 2019, Vickers had previously served as sergeant-at-arms in the House of Commons, where in 2014 he was credited with fatally shooting a gunman who had fired a rifle inside Centre Block.

The result is the first time a New Brunswick government has won two consecutive terms since Bernard Lord's Tories were re-elected in 2003. But the Conservatives largely failed to make gains in French-speaking regions. The province remains split along linguistic lines: Tories dominate the English-speaking ridings of central and southern New Brunswick, while Liberals hold the French-speaking north, a divide that emerged after the 2018 election.

Smaller-party leaders had warned against a majority, arguing the minority arrangement had worked well, with an all-party cabinet committee handling the pandemic. Green Leader David Coon said the outcome "speaks to the need for electoral reform, so we don't have these majority governments where premiers can have their way." People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin said he was disappointed but vowed to keep pressing for change: "We still have our foot in the door, make no mistake about it." The NDP, led on an interim basis by 23-year-old Mackenzie Thomason, was shut out again, as in 2018.

What comes next is a Liberal leadership search and a Higgs government with a free hand to manage the pandemic, facing a province still divided by language.