In a closed chamber of the United Nations Security Council, the search for the next steward of the organisation has reached another quiet checkpoint, and a former Costa Rican vice president has edged a little further ahead. Antonio Guterres's term is drawing to its end, and the institution he has led is carrying financial strain, armed conflicts and doubts about its own capacity to meet crises, so the choice of his successor carries weight beyond any single name. The ballot tallies, shared by diplomats rather than officially released, show a field still undecided but narrowing in its leaders.
Grynspan Widens Lead in UN Secretary-General Straw Poll as Security Council Deadlock Persists
Three discourage votes leave open whether all five vetoes are safe.
Mark
Grynspan went from 11 to 12 encourage votes. Is that really a big move?
Mimi
It's one vote, but she's now at 12 of 15 with no "no opinion" votes, so every member who voted has taken a side. And she's still first.
Luke
Worth noting those numbers come from diplomats. The council president confirmed the vote happened but wouldn't release results.
Mark
Why do the three discourage votes matter so much?
Mimi
Because any of the five permanent members can veto in the formal process. Three negatives could include one of them.
Luke
Could, but we don't know. The ballots were undifferentiated, so nothing in the reporting says who cast them.
Mark
And the colour-coded ballots?
Mimi
They'd separate permanent members' votes from the elected members' votes. That's why the next round could be decisive.
Luke
"May return" is the operative phrase. It's not decided.
Mark
What about Russia's comments?
Mimi
Logvinov said Moscow still favours Latin America's turn, but would consider outside candidates if no regional nominee gets enough support.
Luke
That's a conditional, not a shift. He also said tension is rising, but that's his characterisation, and we don't know how the other permanent members see it.
Il Polso
- Rebeca Grynspan rose to 12 encourage votes in the latest closed straw poll, but three discourage votes still cast a shadow over her path.
- Grynspan's lead keeps the race tense because the results are undifferentiated, so no one can tell whether any of the five veto-holding powers are opposed.
- Moscow is signalling that if no Latin American candidate gains enough support, Russia would be willing to widen the field beyond the region.
- Diplomats are weighing colour-coded ballots in the next round, which could reveal whether resistance comes from permanent or elected members.
- Latvia holds the rotating presidency and Turkey's late entrant Sinirlioglu faces a difficult debut, and both the timing and the crowded field make the coming weeks unpredictable.
In a closed chamber of the United Nations Security Council, the search for the next steward of the organisation has reached another quiet checkpoint, and a former Costa Rican vice president has edged a little further ahead. Antonio Guterres's term is drawing to its end, and the institution he has led is carrying financial strain, armed conflicts and doubts about its own capacity to meet crises, so the choice of his successor carries weight beyond any single name. The ballot tallies, shared by diplomats rather than officially released, show a field still undecided but narrowing in its leaders. What remains unseen is how the great powers themselves are leaning, a question the next round may finally bring into the open.
On Thursday, the fifteen members of the Security Council cast another round of secret straw poll ballots on who should succeed Antonio Guterres, and Rebeca Grynspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica, pulled further ahead. According to diplomats, she received twelve encourage votes, three discourage votes and no no-opinion votes, up from eleven in the previous round. The poll is part of a selection that has been stalled for months, as Guterres's second term nears its end in December and the council searches for a successor while the UN struggles with financial pressure and conflicts.
Behind her, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, placed second with nine encourage votes, while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana and Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE trailed. The newest entrant, Turkey's Feridun Sinirlioglu, nominated only on November 1, had a rough debut with three encourage and eight discourage votes, complicating an already crowded field.
Moscow has hinted at flexibility. Russian officials say they still expect Latin America and the Caribbean to put forward candidates, but if none can win enough support, Russia would consider a broader field. The ballot did not reveal how the five permanent members voted, which leaves open whether Grynspan can count on all of them. Diplomats may soon switch to colour-coded ballots, a move that could show whether opposition comes from the permanent or elected members.
On Thursday, behind closed doors, the 15 members of the UN Security Council cast another round of straw poll ballots on who should succeed Antonio Guterres, and Rebeca Grynspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica, came out further ahead. According to diplomats, she received 12 "encourage" votes, three "discourage" votes and no "no opinion" votes. In the previous round she had 11 encourage votes.
The poll is part of a selection that has been stuck for months. Guterres's second five-year term ends in December, and the council is trying to settle on a successor while the UN deals with financial strain, conflicts, and questions about whether it can respond to global crises. Latvia's UN ambassador, Sanita Pavļuta-Deslandes, holds the council's rotating presidency this month. She confirmed the vote took place but declined to disclose the results; the figures come from diplomats.
Behind Grynspan, Argentina's Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, placed second with nine encourage votes, four discourage and two no opinion. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana followed with a tally of 8-5-2. Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE held fourth place at 7-6-2.
The newest name had the weakest debut. Feridun Sinirlioglu of Turkey, nominated by Ankara on November 1, received three encourage votes, eight discourage and four no opinion in his first appearance. His late entry has complicated an already crowded field. He is due to address the General Assembly on Friday and then hold informal talks with Security Council members on November 9.
Moscow, meanwhile, signalled some flexibility. Kirill Logvinov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for International Organisations, told the state news agency Tass that Russia still believes it is Latin America and the Caribbean's turn to put forward candidates, under an informal principle of geographical rotation. "At the early stages of the race we promised to respect this tradition to our Latin American partners," he said. But if none of the region's nominees wins enough support in the informal votes, Russia would consider a wider field that would meet its criteria and draw as much backing as possible from council members. Logvinov added that tension was rising and that consultations among the five permanent members were becoming more frequent.
The structure of Thursday's ballot limits what can be read into it. The poll used undifferentiated ballots, so the results do not show how the permanent members voted. That matters because the US, Russia, China, France and Britain can each block a candidate in the formal selection process. Grynspan's three discourage votes therefore leave open whether she can count on all five of them.
That question may soon be answered. Diplomats may return to colour-coded ballots in the next round, a step that could prove decisive because it would show whether resistance to the leading candidates comes from the permanent members or from the elected ones.
Citazioni salienti
At the early stages of the race we promised to respect this tradition to our Latin American partners.— Kirill Logvinov, Russian Foreign Ministry
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