In the weeks before November's midterm elections, a quiet but telling exodus is taking shape: the Republican candidates who most need to win are choosing their own doorsteps over the party's grand stage in Dallas. With President Trump's approval at 39 percent and history favoring the opposition in midterm years, those running in the nation's closest races are making a sober calculation — that proximity to power can be a burden as much as a blessing. The convention proceeds, balloons and all, but the empty chairs of the most vulnerable candidates speak a language of their own.
GOP candidates shun Trump's Dallas convention, prioritizing home campaigns
No one votes for me in Washington or in Dallas. I have to be in Miami.
Mark
So the convention is supposed to be this big show of unity and momentum, but a lot of the candidates who actually need that momentum most are staying home. Why would they skip it?
Mimi
Because being associated with Trump carries real risk in swing districts right now. His approval is at 39 percent and dropping. If you're running in a place that's genuinely competitive, being seen on stage with him could hurt you more than help.
Luke
But we should be careful here—CBS contacted 60 candidates and got responses from only nine. The other 51 didn't reply. We don't actually know why most of them are absent. They could be attending and just not confirming to a reporter.
Mimi
That's fair, but the ones who did respond were pretty clear. Fitzpatrick said his constituents are his priority. Salazar said no one votes for her in Dallas. The pattern suggests distance.
Mark
What about the candidates who are going? Are they making a different bet?
Mimi
Yes. If you're in a safe Republican district, Trump's base is your base. The convention is a chance to energize them and network with donors. For those candidates, the calculus is completely different.
Luke
And we should note that the RNC says over 100 GOP candidates will attend overall, and more than two dozen are scheduled to speak. So it's not like the convention is empty. It's just that the most vulnerable candidates—the ones in the closest races—seem to be staying away.
Mark
There's also this thing about Ken Paxton. The convention seems designed partly to help him, and that's apparently turning people off.
Mimi
Paxton was impeached in 2023 and he's trailing in fundraising against his Democratic opponent. Many Texas donors have ties to John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat in the primary. They don't want to help him. So the convention becomes less about the party's broader midterm strategy and more about propping up one controversial candidate.
Luke
Though Trump is clearly all-in on Paxton. He said last week that Paxton would be a focus of the convention. The MAGA Inc. super PAC is spending nine figures on the race. So from Trump's perspective, this is a priority.
Mark
What's the real cost here? Is this convention actually going to hurt the GOP?
Mimi
If your most vulnerable candidates aren't there, you're not building the kind of unified message you need heading into November. You're also signaling that some candidates don't want to be associated with the president, which is its own kind of problem.
Luke
But we don't know yet whether this actually affects turnout or candidate performance in November. The convention hasn't happened. We're reading tea leaves based on who said yes and who didn't respond.
O Pulso
- Of 60 battleground candidates contacted, only four confirmed attendance — a near-total silence that reveals how toxic association with the national party has become in competitive districts.
- Trump's approval rating has slid to 39 percent, and candidates in races decided by hundreds of votes are treating the Dallas convention as a political liability rather than a launching pad.
- The event's perceived role as a vehicle to elevate Ken Paxton — impeached in 2023 and trailing in fundraising — is alienating major Texas donors who remain loyal to Senator John Cornyn.
- Donor packages ranging from $15,000 to over $150,000 are compounding the friction, with bundlers openly questioning who the convention is actually designed to serve.
- Vulnerable candidates are redirecting their energy to constituent listening and local campaigning, betting that kitchen-table credibility will outlast any convention bounce.
- The RNC insists the event will drive November turnout, but with its most endangered members absent, the rally risks becoming a spectacle that energizes the base while leaving the margins undefended.
In the weeks before November's midterm elections, a quiet but telling exodus is taking shape: the Republican candidates who most need to win are choosing their own doorsteps over the party's grand stage in Dallas. With President Trump's approval at 39 percent and history favoring the opposition in midterm years, those running in the nation's closest races are making a sober calculation — that proximity to power can be a burden as much as a blessing. The convention proceeds, balloons and all, but the empty chairs of the most vulnerable candidates speak a language of their own.
President Trump is billing this week's Republican gathering in Dallas as a historic celebration of his administration — a two-night rally at American Airlines Center meant to fire up voters before November. But the convention is defined as much by who isn't there as by who is.
When CBS News contacted 60 candidates running in the country's most competitive races, only four confirmed they would attend. Five declined outright. The other 51 said nothing at all. The RNC claims over 100 GOP candidates and officials will be present, but the silence from those in the tightest contests tells a different story: being seen alongside Trump and the national party apparatus carries real risk when the president's approval has fallen to 39 percent.
For candidates like Pennsylvania's Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — whose district Trump carried by fewer than 300 votes — the math is unforgiving. "Our bosses are back home," he said, describing constituents wrestling with budgets, healthcare, and business pressures. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of South Florida was equally direct: "No one votes for me in Washington or in Dallas. I have to be in Miami." The message from the absent is consistent — the ground game at home matters more than party theater in Texas.
The convention is also generating internal friction over its apparent role as a platform for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running for U.S. Senate after being impeached in 2023 on charges including bribery and dereliction of duty. Trump has called Paxton a focus of the event, but many of the state's most influential donors remain loyal to Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a bruising primary. One senior bundler, speaking anonymously, said the convention has become a liability: "Who wants to come?" High donor costs — packages starting at $15,000 and climbing past $150,000 — only deepened the reluctance.
A handful of candidates in safer Republican districts are attending and will speak, finding value in the donor access and base enthusiasm the event can provide. But for the majority running in places where November will be decided by slim margins, the convention floor is a luxury they have concluded they cannot afford.
President Trump is calling this week's Republican National Committee gathering in Dallas a spectacle unlike anything the party has staged before—a chance to celebrate his administration's record and energize voters heading into November's midterm elections. But the convention is unfolding amid a peculiar absence. Dozens of Republican candidates running in the nation's most competitive races have decided not to show up.
When CBS News reached out to 60 candidates in battleground gubernatorial, Senate, and House races, the response was telling. Only four said they would attend. Five explicitly declined. The remaining 51 did not answer at all. The Republican National Committee says more than two dozen candidates are scheduled to speak at the American Airlines Center event, and party officials claim over 100 GOP candidates and elected officials will be present overall. But the silence from so many of those in the tightest races suggests a strategic calculation: being seen with Trump and the national party apparatus carries risk in districts where the president's popularity is mixed or weak.
The math is straightforward for candidates in swing districts. Trump's approval rating has slipped to 39 percent as of late July, down five points since March. Historically, the party holding the White House loses ground in midterm elections. For a House member or Senate candidate running in a place where the last presidential margin was measured in hundreds of votes, the calculus shifts. "Our bosses are back home," said Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, whose district Trump won by fewer than 300 votes in 2024 and who is not attending. "Times are tough, and we need to be listening to everything they're saying about the struggles that they're encountering in their budgets and their kitchen table and their businesses, healthcare and act on it." For Fitzpatrick and others like him, the convention floor is a luxury they cannot afford.
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents a once-safely Republican South Florida district that has grown more competitive, put it plainly: "I am going to be in my district. I have to be campaigning. No one votes for me in Washington or in Dallas. I have to be in Miami." Gabe Evans, running in a tight race in Colorado's 8th Congressional District north of Denver, echoed the same priority. The message from these candidates is consistent and unambiguous—their constituents matter more than party theater.
The convention itself is designed to look less like traditional party business and more like an extended political rally. Trump plans to headline both nights, with Vice President Vance, Cabinet secretaries including Attorney General Todd Blanche and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and other administration allies filling the schedule. Thousands of balloons are already rigged in the arena ceiling, ready to drop during Thursday's finale. The RNC says the event is meant to "drive turnout to the polls in November" and "rally voters around the president, his agenda and candidates."
But the event is also creating friction within Republican circles for reasons beyond Trump's approval ratings. The convention appears designed in part to boost Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running for U.S. Senate against Democrat James Talarico in a race where he is trailing in fundraising. Paxton was impeached in 2023 over allegations of bribery, dereliction of duty, and disregard of official duties. Trump said last week that Paxton would be a focus of the convention, calling him a "phenomenal attorney general" while acknowledging that "some people don't like" him. The Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC has already begun spending nine figures on the race, including anti-Talarico advertising.
Many of Texas's most active Republican donors have close ties to Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a bruising primary. They see little reason to help elevate Paxton now. One longtime bundler, granted anonymity to speak candidly about party operations, said the convention has become a liability. "They are in a problem in Dallas," the bundler said. "Who wants to come?" The same bundler noted frustration over the RNC's request that attendees contribute five- or six-figure sums for lavish donor events earlier in the week. Donation packages started at $15,000 and climbed to $150,000 and beyond. For some party figures, the combination of high costs, Trump's sliding approval, and the focus on a controversial figure like Paxton made the Dallas trip an easy pass.
Some candidates are attending—Reps. Mike Lawler of New York, Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, Monica De La Cruz of Texas, and Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania are scheduled to speak. For those representing deep-red districts where Trump remains popular, the convention offers a chance to energize the base and network with donors and administration officials. But for the majority of candidates in truly competitive races, the calculation points elsewhere: home, their districts, their voters, the ground game that will actually determine whether they win or lose in November.
Citações Notáveis
Our bosses are back home. Times are tough, and we need to be listening to everything they're saying about the struggles that they're encountering in their budgets and their kitchen table and their businesses, healthcare and act on it.— Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA)
I am going to be in my district. I have to be campaigning. No one votes for me in Washington or in Dallas. I have to be in Miami.— Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL)
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