Exit Polls Point to Rebuke of Netanyahu, but Israel's Election Yields No Clear Winner

On Tuesday evening, as polls closed across Israel, exit polls released by the country's major television stations pointed to a sharp rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They suggested his opponents had won a solid majority in the next parliament. What they did not show was a government. Whether the disparate opposition parties can form one is uncertain, and the haggling is likely to last weeks.

The numbers, in a 120-seat Knesset, were these: Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 seats, the opposition at 52 to 53, and Arab parties at 17 to 18. Like all surveys, exit polls can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and both may differ from what the networks reported.

The arithmetic leaves the opposition with a problem. The easiest route to a majority would have its main figure, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, partner with Arab-led parties. That could be politically difficult and might alienate other opposition factions. Eisenkot said the exit polls show a "lack of confidence" in the current prime minister. Arab voters celebrated the projections, while supporters of the far-right parties allied with Netanyahu expressed disappointment.

No single party has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset, so coalitions are the rule. Israel's president will ask the party leader with the best prospect of building one, usually the head of the largest party, to try. If Netanyahu's Likud finishes first, he could claim that right. Pressure on Eisenkot to strike a deal with the Arab parties will be heavy, and Netanyahu and his allies are likely to describe any such alliance as illegitimate, even treasonous. Minority governments are possible but depend on outside parties to pass legislation. If nobody can assemble a majority, new elections could come early next year. Israel already voted five times between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

Turnout was high. By 8 p.m., more than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee, the highest at that hour in decades and 8 percentage points above the 2022 election. More than 7 million people are eligible to vote, and tens of thousands reportedly arrived from overseas. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service under the shadow of war, voted for the first time. Earlier in the day Netanyahu had warned that Arab parties were receiving "truly massive support" and heading to the polls in "unprecedented numbers." Dean Livne, the elections commission's acting director-general, said complaints about irregularities were scattered and far fewer than in earlier elections.

This was Israel's first national vote since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and it was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. In Tel Aviv, families of some of those killed that day, along with former hostages, held a moment of silence. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot. Eisenkot began his day visiting communities attacked on Oct. 7, saying that if anyone in government had "a shred of responsibility," they would start their morning there. He urged Israelis to vote out "the worst government Israel has known," calling it perhaps the most critical day since the state's founding.

The campaign unfolded against wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, settler violence in the occupied West Bank, and growing isolation. Public support among Americans has fallen, European and other partners have imposed sanctions, and Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Ahead of the vote he warned Iran of "a devastating blow" if it attacked.

Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman defending Israel's security and Jewish identity. Detractors point to his ongoing corruption trial, say he prolonged the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons, and accuse him of weakening the judiciary and enabling ultra-Orthodox exemptions from conscription. "The present government is driving the country into the ground," said Jerusalem voter Angela Bengur. In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about who serves and who evades service. Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, is seen by backers as a security-minded bulwark against illiberalism. Parties likely to support him have pledged to repair Israel's standing abroad, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.

The next step is the count. If the exit polls hold, the contest shifts from the ballot box to the negotiating table, where Eisenkot's choices about the Arab parties may decide whether Israel gets a government or another election.