Exit Polls Point to Netanyahu Setback and a Deadlocked Israeli Election, With Coalition Talks Ahead

In the early hours of Wednesday, supporters packed into Gadi Eisenkot's party headquarters in Israel jumped and chanted his name as the exit polls came onto the screens. At Benjamin Netanyahu's headquarters, filled mostly with media, a few loyalists chanted his name, wrapped themselves in flags bearing his face and kissed posters of him. The polls, released by major Israeli TV stations after voting closed Tuesday, put Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's camp at about 51 seats each, with Arab parties winning about 18.

The numbers read as a rebuke of a prime minister whose rule has been nearly unbroken for 17 years, since his opponents appear to hold a solid majority in the next parliament. But whether those disparate parties can form a government is uncertain, and the haggling will likely take weeks. Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and both may differ from the polls.

The easiest route would have Eisenkot, a former military chief and Netanyahu's main rival, partner with the Arab-led parties. That could be politically hard and might alienate other opposition factions. Pressure on him to strike such a deal will be heavy, while Netanyahu and his allies are likely to portray any such alliance as illegitimate, even treasonous. Netanyahu had warned before the vote that Arab parties could make or break the election, saying they had "truly massive support" and were turning out in "unprecedented numbers."

The mechanics are familiar. No party has ever won an outright majority in the 120-seat parliament, so coalitions are the rule. Israel's president will ask the leader with the best chance of building one, usually the head of the largest party, to try. If Likud finishes first, Netanyahu could claim that right. A minority government is possible but would depend on outside parties to pass legislation. If no one assembles a majority, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate. Netanyahu's current coalition peaked at 68 members before it began to disintegrate over the past year.

Turnout was the highest since 1999, with more than 77% of the over 7 million eligible voters casting ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee. Tens of thousands reportedly flew in from overseas. It was Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack. In Tel Aviv, families of some of those killed that day, and former hostages, held a moment of silence during the vote. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed.

Eisenkot, speaking early Wednesday, said the polls showed a "lack of confidence" in Netanyahu and promised a government and "a new era — an era of hope." "The people decided in favor of change," he said. He also warned Netanyahu, now a caretaker prime minister, not to "dare use Israel's security for your political needs," an apparent reference to reports that Netanyahu considered striking Iran in the days before the vote. Netanyahu had made no public statement hours after the polls came out. Before the vote he had threatened Tehran with "a devastating blow" if it attacked Israel.

The campaign was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu and a fight over the state's character. His supporters view him as a steady statesman who guided Israel through a war of redemption and defends its security and Jewish identity against foreign pressure and liberal elites. His critics point to his ongoing corruption trial, accuse him of prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political ends, and say he weakens the independent judiciary and enables ultra-Orthodox exemptions from conscription. Voter Angela Bengur in Jerusalem said the government was "driving the country into the ground." In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about "who serves and who evades service."

Eisenkot's backers see a security figure with deep credentials, who lost a son and two nephews in Gaza. Parties likely to support him have pledged to repair Israel's international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen the judiciary. Israel's isolation is real: American public support has fallen, European and other partners have imposed sanctions, and Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. What to watch next is the official count, and whether Eisenkot can assemble a majority or the country heads back to the polls.