Exit Polls Hand Netanyahu a Rebuke, But Israel's Election Leaves No Clear Path to Government

In the early hours of Wednesday, supporters crowded into Gadi Eisenkot's party headquarters jumped and chanted his name as the exit polls came on the air. Across town, at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's headquarters, the room was filled mostly with journalists. The few supporters there draped themselves in flags bearing his face and kissed posters of him.

The exit polls, released by major Israeli TV stations after voting closed Tuesday, put Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's bloc at about 51 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab parties were projected to win about 18. That is a rebuke of a prime minister who has governed almost without interruption for 17 years, but it is not a clear mandate for anyone. Exit polls can be wrong, preliminary results were expected within hours, and final results in the coming days may differ.

Turnout was the highest since 1999. The Central Elections Committee reported that more than 77% of eligible voters cast ballots, out of over 7 million eligible, and tens of thousands reportedly flew in from overseas. It was Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and many Israelis treated it as a referendum on Netanyahu. Some also saw it as a struggle over the character of the state, with Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies on one side and those defending its liberal, secular foundations on the other.

Eisenkot, a former military chief, spoke in terms of national unity. He said the polls reflected a "lack of confidence" in Netanyahu, vowed to form a government and promised "a new era — an era of hope." He said the people had decided in favor of change. He also warned Netanyahu not to use Israel's security for political needs while serving as caretaker, an apparent reference to reports that Netanyahu considered striking Iran in the sensitive days before the vote. Netanyahu had made no public statement hours after the polls came out.

The arithmetic is difficult. The simplest route to a majority would have Eisenkot partner with the Arab-led parties, but that could be politically hard and might alienate other opposition factions. Netanyahu and his allies are likely to portray any such alliance as illegitimate, even treasonous. Netanyahu himself had warned before the vote that Arab parties were getting "truly massive support" and turning out in "unprecedented numbers."

The process now moves to Israel's president, who will ask the party leader with the best chance of building a coalition, usually the head of the largest party, to try. If Netanyahu's Likud finishes first, he could claim that right. No party has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset. Minority governments are possible, but they depend on outside parties to pass legislation. If no majority coalition emerges, new elections could come early next year. Israel already went through five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar deadlock.

The campaign was fought over sharply different views of Netanyahu. His supporters see a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption after its darkest hour and who defends its security and Jewish identity against foreign pressure and liberal elites. His critics point to his ongoing corruption trial and say he prolonged the Gaza war and the hostage crisis for political reasons. They also accuse him of undermining the independent judiciary and enabling ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service. Voter Angela Bengur in Jerusalem said the government was "driving the country into the ground." In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about who serves and who evades service.

Eisenkot's backers see strong security credentials and a check on creeping illiberalism. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza. Parties likely to support him have pledged to repair Israel's international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.

Oct. 7 was present at the polls. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed that day, and of former hostages, held a moment of silence. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed, asked people to remember all those whose voices are no more. Israel is more isolated abroad, with American public support sharply down and European partners imposing sanctions. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Weeks of coalition bargaining now begin, with the final seat count still to come.