On a Wednesday in early November, the European Commission released its annual enlargement assessment, and the quiet center of it was a small Balkan country of 630,000 people. Montenegro, the Commission suggested, might close its accession talks before this year ends and so stand poised to become the European Union's next member in 2028, more than a decade after Croatia became the last to cross that threshold. The wider picture is one of unfinished work: several nations knocking at the same door, each carrying its own reforms and hopes, and a Serbia whose people have just offered their leaders
EU Says Montenegro on Track to Become Bloc's Next Member by 2028
On a Wednesday in early November, the European Commission released its annual enlargement assessment, and the quiet center of it was a small Balkan country of 630,000 people. Montenegro, the Commission suggested, might close its accession talks before this year ends and so stand poised to become the European Union's next member in 2028, more than a decade after Croatia became the last to cross that threshold. The wider picture is one of unfinished work: several nations knocking at the same door, each carrying its own reforms and hopes, and a Serbia whose people have just offered their leaders a chance to begin again.
On Wednesday the European Commission published its annual enlargement report, and its headline concerned Montenegro. The country, home to 630,000 people, could finish its accession negotiations as early as the end of this year, placing it on course to become the Union's next member in 2028. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen framed the progress as evidence that enlargement is becoming reality, step by step, toward a more complete and stronger Union.
The road is not finished. Montenegro must still carry out reforms in fundamental rights and financial services. If talks close this year, an accession treaty could be signed in June 2027, and then all 27 member states must ratify it before membership is secured.
Around the region, other candidates are moving with varying speed. Albania lags roughly a year behind and must keep pushing on justice reform, organized crime and corruption. Moldova aims for early 2028 and is judged ambitious but achievable. Ukraine is praised despite the Russian invasion, yet Kyiv was told to quicken its work on the rule of law and democratic institutions.
Serbia offers the report's most hopeful note. A student movement recently defeated the long-serving populist Aleksandar Vucic at the polls, and the Commission suggested that a government willing to strengthen democracy could revive Belgrade's talks. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told lawmakers that Serbia now has a fresh start to turn the page.
Others remain distant. Kosovo has no candidate status yet, while Georgia and Turkey are judged furthest away because of democratic backsliding. The next markers are the close of Montenegro's talks and whether Serbia's new leaders accept the invitation.
On Wednesday, the European Commission published its annual enlargement report, and the headline finding concerned a country of just 630,000 people. Montenegro, the commission said, could close its accession negotiations as early as the end of this year, which would put it on course to become the European Union's next member in 2028.
The report describes Montenegro as the frontrunner among the nine countries currently seeking membership. The last country to join the bloc was Croatia, in 2013. In its assessment, the EU's executive called Montenegro's progress a testament to its sustained efforts to advance on the European path and to carry out the reforms needed to turn membership into reality. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the significant progress made by some candidates over the past year allows the EU to turn the promise of enlargement into reality, and that step by step it is building a more complete, stronger Union.
The path is not yet clear. Montenegro still has reforms to implement, particularly in fundamental rights and financial services. If negotiations do conclude this year, the report says an accession treaty could be signed in June 2027. That treaty would then need to be ratified by all 27 member states, which could allow membership to be finalized in 2028. Throughout the process, candidates must bring their national laws and standards into line with EU requirements, in areas ranging from environmental protection to human rights.
Montenegro is not alone in moving forward. The commission's roadmap for the other front-runners places Albania roughly a year behind Montenegro. To finish its talks by the end of 2027, Albania needs to keep reforming its justice system and tackling organized crime and corruption. Moldova has set itself the goal of implementing the necessary reforms by early 2028, which the commission called ambitious but achievable, provided the country keeps up its current pace of change.
Ukraine drew praise for its progress despite the Russian invasion. But the commission said Kyiv must accelerate reforms to improve the rule of law and the functioning of democratic institutions.
Progress has been slower for North Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia. In Serbia's case, though, the commission pointed to a possible opening. Last month, a student movement beat longtime populist President Aleksandar Vucic in elections. If that movement forms a government willing to strengthen democracy, the report says, Serbia's membership talks could get a boost. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told EU lawmakers on Wednesday that Serbia now has the chance for a fresh start, and that a new government has an opportunity to turn the page, strengthen democratic institutions and fundamental rights, and take the steps needed to advance on its accession path.
Others remain far from the door. Kosovo hopes to join but has not been granted candidate status. Georgia and Turkey are considered furthest from membership because of democratic backsliding.
The next marker is the end of this year, when Montenegro could close its negotiations. After that, attention turns to a possible June 2027 treaty signing, and to whether Serbia's new government takes up the commission's invitation.
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