EHCP applications surge as families rush before England's special needs reforms

Across England's schools, something has shifted. Since February, when the government announced plans to overhaul how it supports children with special educational needs, families have begun moving with urgency. They are filing applications for education, health and care plans—the legal documents that guarantee funding and specialist support for children with disabilities, autism, ADHD, speech difficulties, and learning challenges. Headteachers describe the volume as "unreal." Some schools are bracing for double the number of pupils arriving in September with EHCPs already in place or pending.

The numbers tell the story of a system under sudden pressure. In 2025, one in 20 school-age children held an EHCP. Local authority projections now anticipate that by 2029, the figure will reach one in 10—a doubling in just four years. The growth has already been steep: EHCPs rose by more than 11 percent annually in each of the past two years, and councils expect similar double-digit increases to continue. Hampshire council's July report showed applications at record levels and forecast a 58 percent increase in EHCPs between 2026 and 2030. Manchester is projecting a 40 percent rise by 2029. These are not modest adjustments; they are structural shifts in how many children the system must serve.

Why the rush? The answer lies in what comes next. The government's white paper, unveiled in February, proposes a fundamental redesign of special needs support. From 2030, EHCPs would be reserved for children with the most profound needs and disabilities. Younger children and those with moderate difficulties would receive individual support plans instead, alongside enhanced provision in mainstream schools. The logic is sound—earlier intervention, broader access to specialist help in regular classrooms, a system less dependent on formal plans. But for families with children who might not qualify under the new criteria, the message is clear: secure an EHCP now, before the door narrows.

The financial consequences are already visible. More than 530,000 school-age children currently hold EHCPs, with an additional 1.3 million identified as having special needs. The costs come from local authority high needs budgets, and the sustained growth has left councils accumulating deficits so severe that many require statutory overrides from central government to avoid technical bankruptcy. Bill Revans, the County Councils Network's spokesperson on special educational needs and the Liberal Democrat leader of Somerset council, said the previous projection of 840,000 EHCPs by 2028-29 would likely be exceeded. "This translates to very real financial pressures on local authorities," he said, "and despite the government commitment to wipe 90 percent of existing Send deficits built up by councils over the past decade, we expect the debt to be re-accrued by as soon as this time next year."

Schools themselves are absorbing the immediate strain. Special educational needs coordinators have worked through the summer processing assessment requests. Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, acknowledged that while pinpointing a single cause is difficult, "it appears likely that the government's plans to restrict future EHCPs to children with the most complex needs may have led to more families and schools applying before these changes kick in." Ipsea, a charity helping families navigate the system, reported that its helplines received the most calls about EHCP provision since March—the month after reforms were announced.

The government's schools minister, Georgia Gould, has emphasized that change will be gradual and thoughtful. During a visit to a secondary school in Colchester, she acknowledged that families have been let down by the current system and that reform can feel worrying. "That's why we want to put in place tangible change they can see and feel in classrooms and in their communities," she said. Parts of the planned changes are already beginning, including a new "experts in hand" scheme placing specialists directly into mainstream schools and nurseries. But Gould also conceded that building trust will take time.

Not everyone is convinced the reforms will ease the burden. Madeleine Cassidy, chief executive of Ipsea, warned that the proposed changes "risk making an already fragile system worse by removing the statutory protections and vital safeguards available to children and families when support is delayed, denied or inadequate." William Burns, a social care policy adviser for the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, raised a deeper concern: the government's own modeling suggests demand for EHCPs could return to today's levels by 2035. "Current levels of demand are already placing severe strain on the system," he said. "It is therefore difficult to see how recreating today's volume of need, even within a reformed framework, can be considered a sustainable end state."

What emerges is a system caught between two moments. Families are racing to secure protections before they disappear. Councils are forecasting deficits they cannot absorb. Schools are processing applications at unprecedented rates. And the government is building a new framework while the old one strains under sudden, unexpected weight. The surge itself may have made the transition harder—not easier—to manage.