On a Monday morning when the world's oil routes already feel fragile, the American President has said aloud that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, much as he has done with Venezuela's, and the remark has rattled currency traders and pushed crude back above $115 a barrel. It is a moment that recalls older energy shocks, and an expert's warning that the pain may outlast any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by half a year or more. Markets are reading the words as a sign that the conflict's economic consequences are not nearing an end.
Dollar dips as Trump says he wants to 'take the oil in Iran'; Brent tops $115 ahead of FCA motor finance details
Even if Hormuz opened tomorrow, higher prices could last six to 12 months.
Mark
Trump told the FT he wants to "take the oil in Iran." Why did the dollar react?
Mimi
The source ties the two together: the remark came as a fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict, and the dollar took a hit this morning. It doesn't spell out the mechanism.
Luke
Right, and that's worth flagging. The link between the comment and the dollar's move is the liveblog's framing. We don't have a size for the dollar move or any market analyst saying it was the cause.
Mark
What did he actually say about control?
Mimi
That he hopes to have a similar level of control over Iranian oil as he has over Venezuela. That's the extent of what's reported.
Luke
And it's a hope, stated in an interview. Nothing here describes a plan, an operation, or any action underway.
Mark
Brent is above $115. How worried should we be?
Mimi
Lars Jensen told The Times the shock will be substantially larger than the 1970s, and that even a reopened Hormuz means six to 12 months of higher prices.
Luke
That's one expert's assessment, not a forecast from a central bank or agency. It's a strong claim, and the source doesn't show the working behind it.
Mark
And the FCA this afternoon?
Mimi
It will reveal the details of motor finance compensation. That's all we're told.
Luke
Which means the amounts and who is covered are unknown until the announcement.
Il Polso
- Donald Trump told the Financial Times he wants to 'take the oil in Iran', and the dollar is absorbing the blow.
- Brent crude has climbed back above $115 a barrel, returning to a level the market has already tested.
- Maritime expert Lars Jensen warns the oil shock could be substantially larger than the 1970s crisis.
- Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, prices could stay elevated for six to 12 months.
- This afternoon the FCA reveals motor finance compensation details, giving UK markets a second focal point.
On a Monday morning when the world's oil routes already feel fragile, the American President has said aloud that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, much as he has done with Venezuela's, and the remark has rattled currency traders and pushed crude back above $115 a barrel. It is a moment that recalls older energy shocks, and an expert's warning that the pain may outlast any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by half a year or more. Markets are reading the words as a sign that the conflict's economic consequences are not nearing an end.
The morning's market story begins with a remark from Donald Trump to the Financial Times. The American President said he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and hopes for a degree of control over Iranian oil similar to what he holds over Venezuela's. The comment arrived alongside a fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict, and the dollar took a hit.
Oil moved the other way. Brent crude climbed again and is back above $115 a barrel, a level the market has visited before and is now returning to.
The longer warning came from maritime expert Lars Jensen, who told The Times that this oil shock could be substantially larger than the one of the 1970s. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, he said, six to 12 months of higher prices would follow.
At home, the calendar offers a few smaller items, including strong results from Boohoo and a new finance chief at Fuller's. The day's sharper UK focus, though, is this afternoon's Financial Conduct Authority reveal of motor finance compensation details. The thing to watch is whether Brent holds above $115 and what the regulator puts on the table.
The morning's market story begins with a remark Donald Trump made to the Financial Times. The US President said he wants to "take the oil in Iran," and that he hopes to have a degree of control over Iranian oil similar to what he has over Venezuela's. The comment landed as a fresh escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, and the US dollar took a hit this morning.
Oil moved the other way. Brent crude rose again and is back above $115 a barrel. The source describes the move as another climb, not a first breach, so the price has been in this territory before and is returning to it.
The longer-term warning came from maritime expert Lars Jensen, speaking to The Times. He said the impact of this oil shock is set to be "substantially larger" than the one seen in the 1970s. He also put a timeline on it: even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, he said, there would be six to 12 months of higher prices. The remark implies the strait is currently not fully open, though the source does not detail the state of shipping through it.
Closer to home, the corporate calendar offers a few other items. Boohoo shares have soared after strong results published this morning. Fuller's has appointed a new finance chief. Neither item is given further detail in the source, including the size of the Boohoo move or the name of Fuller's new appointee.
The item most likely to draw attention in the UK today comes this afternoon, when the Financial Conduct Authority is due to reveal the details of motor finance compensation. The source gives no figures or scope for that announcement, only the timing.
The day's picture, then, is split between a geopolitical shock still feeding through energy prices and a domestic regulatory event with its own market implications. The thing to watch is whether Brent holds above $115 through the session, and what the FCA puts on the table this afternoon.
Citazioni salienti
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow there would be six to 12 months of higher prices.— Lars Jensen, maritime expert, to The Times
Trump said he wants to 'take the oil in Iran' and hopes for similar control as he has over Venezuela's oil.— Donald Trump, in an interview with the Financial Times
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Politics & Governance