Democrats Flip First Senate Seat as Early Midterm Returns Show Trump-Era Backlash Taking Shape

As polls began closing in Kentucky and Indiana on Tuesday, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters in Washington that the country stood "on the brink of a dramatic change of direction." He predicted Democrats were about to take back the House. Within hours, early returns were giving his side reasons for optimism.

The first Senate seat to change hands was in North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper defeated Republican Michael Whatley. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take the chamber from Republicans, who now hold a 53-47 majority, and Cooper's win is the first step. Early House returns also showed Democrats leading in several Republican-held districts. Several GOP sources involved in House races told of growing worry, and a Republican official in Georgia told CNN that multiple campaigns there fear turnout will not carry them past Democrats in the Senate and governor contests.

The stakes cover a lot of ground. All 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and governorships in 36 states are on the ballot. Democrats need only three House gains to win that chamber, and a net four seats in the Senate. A House majority would let them stall Trump's legislative agenda and open sweeping investigations of his administration. A Senate majority would threaten his ability to appoint Supreme Court justices and senior officials. The vote is widely read as a judgment on his presidency, with the mood turning against Republicans over soaring living costs and the war against Iran.

In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff won reelection over Republican Mike Collins. That is a turnabout from last year, when Republicans were optimistic about the state, which Trump carried narrowly in 2024. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas defeated John E. Sununu to hold that seat. Other Senate winners included Democrats Chris Coons in Delaware, Cory Booker in New Jersey, Juliana Stratton in Illinois, Edward Markey in Massachusetts, John Reed in Rhode Island, John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Ben Lujan in New Mexico. Republicans Ashley Moody in Florida and Harriet Hageman in Wyoming also won.

The Senate remains a steep climb. The angry mood has stretched the battlefield into once reliably conservative states such as Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska. Democrats also have seats to defend, notably in Michigan, where a bitter internal dispute led Congresswoman Haley Stevens to endorse Republican Mike Rogers instead of the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed. Decision Desk HQ's final forecast projected 241 House seats for Democrats against 194 for Republicans, and a narrow 52-48 Democratic Senate.

Governor races brought wins for Democrats JB Pritzker in Illinois, Maura Healey in Massachusetts, Wes Moore in Maryland, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Kathy Hochul in New York and Phil Weiser in Colorado. In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds defeated Democrat David Jolly in a race that grew unexpectedly competitive late, becoming the state's first Black governor. Republican Eric Barlow won in Wyoming. Many House incumbents of both parties were also returned, including Republicans Jim Jordan in Ohio and James Comer in Kentucky, and Democrats Gregory Meeks in New York and Joaquin Castro in Texas.

There is also concern over whether Republicans, and Trump in particular, will accept a loss. In a final Fox & Friends call-in on Tuesday, Trump defended his record on immigration, the Iran war and tariffs, saying, "We have to keep America great. We're great now. We were terrible two years ago." He tried to overturn his 2020 defeat and has repeatedly accused Democrats of cheating without evidence. On Tuesday, voting machines malfunctioned in a hotly contested New York House race, and right-wing influencers made unfounded fraud claims while local officials insisted every ballot would be counted.

With most of the count still ahead, the numbers to watch are the three House seats and four Senate seats Democrats need.