On a Tuesday morning in late November, a storm that had been a shapeless low-pressure swirl over the Bay of Bengal grew into Cyclone Nivar, now several hundred kilometres from the coasts of Puducherry and Chennai. Meteorologists expect it to deepen further before it turns toward the shores of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and makes landfall on November 25. It is one more reminder that the sea gathers its force slowly and then presents it all at once, leaving the people of low coastal villages, fishing communities and thatched homes to prepare for what the weather has not yet decided to do.
Deep Depression Intensifies Into Cyclonic Storm Nivar, Headed for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Coast
No casualties are reported, but the cyclone threatens thatched homes and huts, and authorities have warned fishermen against sailing into the rough sea.
On a Tuesday morning in late November, a storm that had been a shapeless low-pressure swirl over the Bay of Bengal grew into Cyclone Nivar, now several hundred kilometres from the coasts of Puducherry and Chennai. Meteorologists expect it to deepen further before it turns toward the shores of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and makes landfall on November 25. It is one more reminder that the sea gathers its force slowly and then presents it all at once, leaving the people of low coastal villages, fishing communities and thatched homes to prepare for what the weather has not yet decided to do.
At 5.30 on Tuesday morning, Cyclone Nivar lay about 410 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai. Only hours earlier it had been a deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal. By the time the Indian Meteorological Department issued its 8.30 am bulletin, it had been upgraded to a cyclonic storm, and the department did not expect it to stop there.
The forecast called for the storm to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm within a day, then cross the coast between Karaikal and Mamallapuram, around Puducherry, on November 25. Winds at landfall were expected to reach 100 to 110 kmph, with gusts to 120 kmph. Rain was predicted across Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and parts of interior Karnataka and Telangana.
At sea, gale winds were expected to build over the Gulf of Mannar and along the coasts of Nellore, Chittoor and the Tamil Nadu south coast. Tidal waves about a metre above the astronomical tide threatened to flood low-lying northern districts near the landfall point. Fishing had been fully suspended in parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and fishermen were warned not to venture into the rough sea.
On land, the danger lay in ordinary things: thatched roofs that could lose their covering, metal sheets flying loose, power and phone lines going down, roads cut, trees uprooted and crops flattened. State governments had alerted district officials, and NDRF teams were waiting in both states. So far no one had been hurt. The next day would show whether the storm grew into its severe form before it reached the shore.
At 5.30 on Tuesday morning, Cyclone Nivar sat roughly 410 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai. Hours earlier it had been a deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal. By the time the Indian Meteorological Department issued its 8.30 am bulletin, it had been upgraded to a cyclonic storm.
The IMD does not expect it to stop there. Its bulletin said the system was very likely to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm within the next 24 hours. It was forecast to move west-northwestwards for the next 12 hours and then turn northwestwards. The department expects it to cross the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram, around Puducherry, on November 25. Wind speeds at landfall are forecast at 100-110 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph.
The effects are expected to reach well beyond the coast. The IMD has predicted rain at many places in Tamil Nadu, in south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Rayalaseema region, and in parts of south interior Karnataka and Telangana. Strong winds are expected to accompany the rain. Coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry could see gusts of up to 120 kmph.
The warning for the sea and coast is more specific. On November 25, gale winds of 65-75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, are very likely over the adjoining west central Bay of Bengal. They are also expected along and off south Andhra Pradesh, in the Nellore and Chittoor districts, and over the Gulf of Mannar. The same winds are forecast along and off the south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. The IMD also issued a storm surge warning. Tidal waves about 1 m above the astronomical tide are very likely to flood low-lying areas of the north coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, near where the storm makes landfall.
Fishing has been completely suspended in parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Authorities have warned fishermen not to sail into the rough sea.
The IMD's list of likely damage is concrete. Thatched houses and huts could be harmed, with rooftops blown off and unattached metal sheets sent flying. Power and communication lines and roads could be damaged. The department also expects tree branches to break, large trees to be uprooted and crops to be damaged.
The state governments of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have already alerted their district officials. Teams from the National Disaster Response Force are on standby in both states. No casualties have been reported so far. The next 24 hours will show whether the storm reaches severe cyclonic strength before it crosses the coast on November 25.
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Climate & Environment