On a Tuesday evening in early June, a deep depression over the southeast Arabian Sea gathered enough strength to become a cyclonic storm, which India's meteorological department named Biparjoy, a name offered by Bangladesh. It sits far out at sea, hundreds of kilometres from the western coast, drifting slowly northward, yet its presence now shapes when the monsoon, the rhythm on which so much of the subcontinent's farming and water depends, will finally reach Kerala. Forecasters agree the arrival will be late and feeble, and that the rains will likely stall at the mountains until the storm its
Deep Depression Intensifies Into Cyclonic Storm 'Biparjoy' Over Arabian Sea, IMD Says
A 'meek and mild entry' for the monsoon, with a cyclone in the way
Mark
Why does a cyclone in the Arabian Sea matter to the monsoon?
Mimi
The IMD said the system will critically influence how the monsoon advances toward Kerala. Skymet says such systems hinder the monsoon's push inland, so it may reach the coast but struggle past the Western Ghats.
Mark
So is the monsoon late?
Mimi
Normal onset is June 1, give or take about seven days. The IMD had suggested June 4 in mid-May. Skymet now says June 8 or 9, which is later than that but within its earlier three-day error margin around June 7.
Luke
Careful, though. The IMD hasn't given an onset date at all. June 8 or 9 is Skymet's estimate, not the government's forecast.
Mark
And the cyclone itself, how strong will it get?
Mimi
The IMD says it is likely to intensify gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm while moving nearly north. Right now it is a cyclonic storm moving at only 4 kmph.
Luke
Likely is not certain. The source gives no landfall location or date. The sea warnings cover coasts, but they don't tell us where the storm will go ashore, or whether it will.
Mark
Does a delayed onset mean a weaker season?
Mimi
Scientists quoted say no. A slightly late start over Kerala doesn't mean late arrival elsewhere or lower total rainfall.
Luke
That's a general statement. The report doesn't say how this particular storm will affect rainfall elsewhere, only that Pai expects further progress after it degenerates, and no timeline is given for that.
Il Polso
- A cyclonic storm named Biparjoy has formed over the Arabian Sea and is strengthening, sitting roughly 920 km west-southwest of Goa.
- Fishermen have been ordered back to shore as very high seas threaten the coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan-Goa-Maharashtra and the Lakshadweep-Maldives region.
- The monsoon, which normally reaches Kerala around June 1, is running late, and forecasters are split on whether its arrival will be a feeble June 8 or 9 entry.
- Progress beyond the southern peninsula is effectively frozen until the storm weakens, leaving inland India waiting while the cyclone churns at sea.
On a Tuesday evening in early June, a deep depression over the southeast Arabian Sea gathered enough strength to become a cyclonic storm, which India's meteorological department named Biparjoy, a name offered by Bangladesh. It sits far out at sea, hundreds of kilometres from the western coast, drifting slowly northward, yet its presence now shapes when the monsoon, the rhythm on which so much of the subcontinent's farming and water depends, will finally reach Kerala. Forecasters agree the arrival will be late and feeble, and that the rains will likely stall at the mountains until the storm itself dissipates. The episode is a reminder that a single turbulent system can delay a season that, in the end, is still expected to bring a normal total.
At 5:30 on Tuesday evening, a deep depression over the southeast Arabian Sea crossed into cyclonic storm territory, and the India Meteorological Department gave it the name Biparjoy. The storm was positioned far out at sea, moving north at a crawl, and the department expects it to grow into a very severe cyclone in the coming days. Along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts, and across the Lakshadweep-Maldives region, the sea is turning dangerous, and fishermen have been told to come home.
The storm has arrived at a moment of waiting. India is anticipating the southwest monsoon, and the department has not committed to a date for its onset over Kerala. The private forecaster Skymet has offered June 8 or 9, but warns that the monsoon will arrive weakly, its push checked by the powerful Arabian Sea system as it meets the Western Ghats. An IMD scientist, D S Pai, said conditions favour onset within two to three days, though the monsoon's journey beyond the southern peninsula will likely have to wait until the cyclone breaks apart.
The delay is noticeable but not alarming. Onset in Kerala normally falls around June 1, and recent years have seen it come as early as May 29 and as late as June 8. Scientists stress that a slightly late start in the south does not mean the rest of the country will be late, nor does it change the season's overall rainfall, which is still expected to be normal despite the emerging El Nino. What remains to watch is the storm's track, the sea warnings for June 8 to 10, and whether the monsoon's advance stalls until the cyclone fades.
At 5:30 on Tuesday evening, a deep depression sitting over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea became a cyclonic storm. The India Meteorological Department named it Biparjoy, pronounced 'Biporjoy', a name supplied by Bangladesh. In its bulletin, the department placed the storm about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,050 km southwest of Mumbai, 1,130 km south-southwest of Porbandar and 1,430 km south of Karachi. It was moving nearly northwards at just 4 kmph.
The IMD expects it to keep heading north and to strengthen gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm. The department has warned of very high seas along and off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts and the Lakshadweep-Maldives areas on June 6. For the Konkan-Goa-Maharashtra coasts, the warning covers June 8 to June 10. Fishermen at sea have been advised to return to shore.
The storm arrives just as India waits for the southwest monsoon. On Monday, the IMD had said the low-pressure system forming over the southeast Arabian Sea, and its intensification, would critically influence how the monsoon advances toward the Kerala coast. The department has not given a tentative date for onset in Kerala.
The private forecaster Skymet Weather has offered one. It says onset may come on June 8 or June 9, but expects what it calls a 'meek and mild entry'. Its reasoning is that powerful systems in the Arabian Sea interfere with the monsoon's push deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal areas but will struggle to get past the Western Ghats.
Skymet had earlier forecast onset on June 7 with an error margin of three days, and says the new dates fall within that bracket. Onset requires set amounts of rain on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Skymet says the spread and intensity of rainfall may meet those criteria on June 8 or 9, though without much force.
D S Pai, a senior IMD scientist, said Kerala also got good rain on Monday and that conditions favour onset over the next two to three days. The southern peninsula should see rain under the influence of both the cyclonic storm and a low-pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal. But Pai said the monsoon's further progress beyond the southern peninsula will happen only after the cyclone degenerates.
The timing is already later than usual. The monsoon normally reaches Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May the IMD had said it might arrive by June 4. In recent years it arrived on May 29 in 2018, June 8 in 2019, June 1 in 2020, June 3 in 2021 and May 29 last year.
Scientists say a slightly late onset over Kerala does not mean the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late, and it does not affect total seasonal rainfall. The IMD had earlier said India should get normal rainfall this season despite evolving El Nino conditions. Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rain, while the east and northeast, central India and the south peninsula are expected to receive 94 to 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.
What to watch now is the storm's track and strength over the coming days, the coastal sea warnings for June 8 to 10, and whether the monsoon's advance past the southern peninsula waits for the cyclone to weaken.
Citazioni salienti
Further progress of the monsoon beyond the southern peninsula will happen after the cyclone degenerates.— D S Pai, senior scientist, IMD
The onset may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with.— Skymet Weather
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