On a single Saturday in late November, three of the Southeastern Conference's most watched programs fell on the road, each absorbing a third loss and thinning a league that once seemed to hold the sport's center. In the quiet arithmetic of a season nearing its close, the question has become whether a conference can shrink to three contenders or whether a team carrying three defeats can still find its way into the bracket. The answer is left to a committee that will speak on Tuesday, and to the uncertain fortunes of teams whose paths now depend on chaos elsewhere.
CFP Projections: Will Just Three SEC Teams Make the Field After Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M Stumble?
The Hoosiers are the main beneficiary of the chaos in the SEC.
Mark
Three SEC teams lost on the road in one Saturday. Why does that reshape the whole bracket?
Mimi
Because it left only three SEC teams with two or fewer losses, and it pushed other teams up. Indiana and Tennessee are the clearest winners.
Mark
Indiana especially?
Mimi
The piece says the committee might have dropped them had Alabama and Ole Miss won. Now a win over Purdue should be enough.
Luke
That's the projection's view, though. Nobody on the committee has said it yet. The rankings come Tuesday.
Mark
And Texas A&M still has a path?
Mimi
Beat Texas, then beat Georgia in the title game, and it's an automatic berth. Alabama and Ole Miss both beat Georgia, which the piece treats as a point in their favor.
Luke
Worth noting that's a case for not writing them off, not a forecast that they get in. The projection itself expects only three SEC teams.
Mark
What about SMU?
Mimi
It would make the field for the first time, but there's an open question about an 11-2 SMU if it loses to Miami.
Luke
Right, and that's unanswered. Also Ewers' ankle: the Longhorns only hope it's minor. Nothing confirmed there.
Le Pouls
- Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all lost on the road in one Saturday, leaving the SEC with only three teams at two or fewer losses.
- Texas A&M's path to the playoff runs through Texas and then Georgia in the SEC title game, a narrow route that keeps a three-loss team alive.
- Texas's Quinn Ewers hurt his ankle in a win over Kentucky, and the Longhorns are hoping the injury is minor before facing A&M.
- Indiana, Tennessee and SMU stand to gain from the SEC upheaval, and Tuesday's committee rankings will show whether they capitalize.
- Oregon, Texas, Miami and Boise State are projected for byes, while Arizona State, Indiana, SMU and Tennessee chase the remaining places in a shifting field.
On a single Saturday in late November, three of the Southeastern Conference's most watched programs fell on the road, each absorbing a third loss and thinning a league that once seemed to hold the sport's center. In the quiet arithmetic of a season nearing its close, the question has become whether a conference can shrink to three contenders or whether a team carrying three defeats can still find its way into the bracket. The answer is left to a committee that will speak on Tuesday, and to the uncertain fortunes of teams whose paths now depend on chaos elsewhere.
Three SEC teams that expected to contend for the sport's top prizes lost on the road the same Saturday. Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M each took a third defeat, and the league now has just three teams with two or fewer losses. Yahoo Sports asks whether that means the SEC is down to three playoff hopefuls or whether a three-loss team can still make the field.
Texas A&M is the most hopeful of the three. A win over Texas and then Georgia in the SEC title game would earn an automatic berth, and Alabama and Ole Miss each already own a win over Georgia. The projection still expects only three SEC teams in the bracket when the committee releases its rankings on Tuesday.
Oregon sits at 11-0 and is projected as Big Ten champion, the only undefeated team left at the top level. Texas, Miami and Boise State round out the projected byes. Texas beat a Kentucky team that could not capitalize on its chances, though Quinn Ewers hurt his ankle, and Boise State survived Wyoming 17-13 after Ashton Jeanty passed 2,000 rushing yards and was also hurt before returning.
In the first round, No. 12 Arizona State would visit No. 5 Ohio State, which should be ranked higher than its current seed. Indiana, the biggest beneficiary of the chaos, would host Notre Dame, and a win over Purdue should be enough for the Hoosiers. SMU, which has won nine straight, would travel to Penn State, and the analysis questions whether an 11-2 SMU would still earn an at-large bid if it lost to Miami. Finally, Tennessee would visit Georgia, though the matchup is likely to change once seeds settle.
Tuesday's rankings will show whether the committee agrees with the projection.
Three of the SEC's most visible teams lost on the road in the same Saturday. Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M each took their third defeat of the season in Week 13, and the league was left with just three teams holding two or fewer losses. That raises the question Yahoo Sports takes up in its latest bracket projection: is the SEC down to three playoff hopefuls, or can a three-loss team still get in?
The analysis is wary of writing off the three-loss group, Texas A&M especially. The Aggies can earn an automatic berth by beating Texas and then beating Georgia in the SEC title game. Alabama and Ole Miss each own a win over Georgia. Even so, the projection expects only three SEC teams in the bracket when the committee releases its rankings on Tuesday. The projection was described as having gotten every team and seed exactly right the previous week.
At the top, Oregon is 11-0 and projected as Big Ten champion. The Ducks were idle in Week 13 and are the only undefeated team left at the top level of college football. Texas, at 10-1, is projected as SEC champion after beating a Kentucky team that could not capitalize on its chances. Quinn Ewers hurt his ankle in that game, and the Longhorns hope it is minor before the Aggies matchup. Miami, 10-1, is the projected ACC champion after handling Wake Forest, and a win in Week 14 sends the Hurricanes to the ACC title game against SMU. Boise State, 10-1, is projected as Mountain West champion. Ashton Jeanty passed 2,000 rushing yards and appeared to injure his left ankle, but he returned as the Broncos survived Wyoming's upset bid, 17-13. Those four would receive first-round byes.
In the first-round games, No. 12 Arizona State (8-2, projected Big 12 champion) would visit No. 5 Ohio State (10-1). The Sun Devils hold the tiebreaker over everyone tied atop the Big 12 and reach the conference title game with a win over Arizona. They should be the highest-ranked Big 12 team on Tuesday. Ohio State should stay No. 2 in the rankings after beating Indiana, yet it sits at the No. 5 seed for now. A win over Michigan would set up a Big Ten title-game rematch with Oregon.
No. 11 Indiana (10-1) would visit No. 6 Notre Dame (10-1). The Hoosiers are described as the main beneficiary of the SEC chaos. Had Alabama and Ole Miss won, the committee might have dropped Indiana from the field; now a win over Purdue should be enough. Notre Dame could leapfrog Penn State after beating previously undefeated Army. The Irish have won nine straight since their Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois.
No. 10 SMU (10-1) would travel to No. 7 Penn State (10-1). SMU beat Virginia easily to clinch an ACC title-game spot and would reach the field for the first time. It has also won nine in a row since a Week 2 loss to BYU. The analysis asks whether an 11-2 SMU would still get in as an at-large team if it lost to Miami. Penn State escaped Minnesota 26-25 and, like Indiana, would feel good about its chances with a win over Maryland in the finale.
Finally, No. 9 Tennessee (9-2) would play at No. 8 Georgia (9-2), though the projection says not to count on a Vols-Bulldogs rematch, since this will probably change. Georgia has clinched an SEC title-game spot against Texas or Texas A&M on Dec. 7, so its seed could land anywhere in a range. Tennessee gained the most from the SEC losses, returning to the bracket after falling out a week earlier, and should make the field by beating Vanderbilt. Tuesday's rankings will show whether the committee agrees.
Citations marquantes
Don't start thinking about a rematch between the Vols and Bulldogs just yet; this is probably going to change.— Yahoo Sports projection
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