On a Sunday in late October, Brazil's voters decided between an incumbent who is trying to do what no president before him has managed, and a challenger whose family name carries both devotion and dread. Lula, eighty years old and returning to a contest he had lost in the first round, faces Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator who slipped into the runoff on a narrow margin few had predicted. The country, with its 159 million voters, has long been used to tension between its ambitions and its institutions, and this vote asks whether that tension will tilt toward reconciliation or rupture. What remains u
Brazil votes in tight runoff as Lula seeks unprecedented comeback against Flávio Bolsonaro
Lula Workers' Party councillor Iara Pimentel suffered facial injuries and was hospitalised after her motorcade was attacked with bottles and bricks in Minas Gerais.
On a Sunday in late October, Brazil's voters decided between an incumbent who is trying to do what no president before him has managed, and a challenger whose family name carries both devotion and dread. Lula, eighty years old and returning to a contest he had lost in the first round, faces Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator who slipped into the runoff on a narrow margin few had predicted. The country, with its 159 million voters, has long been used to tension between its ambitions and its institutions, and this vote asks whether that tension will tilt toward reconciliation or rupture. What remains uncertain is less the winner than the manner of acceptance.
Brazilians went to the polls on Sunday for a runoff few expected to be close, and fewer still expected to be this tight. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, at eighty, is attempting a comeback from a first-round defeat, a feat no Brazilian president has achieved. Across from him stands far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who surprised many by winning the first round despite trailing in most polls. Three weeks ago he looked like the favourite. Since then Lula's campaign has gained ground, and the two men now stand almost level.
Lula has concentrated on two things: getting his supporters to vote, since abstention hit a record in the first round and fell hardest on his base, and warning what a Bolsonaro return could mean. Flávio, forty-five and a congressman for two decades with few laws to his name, has promised to pardon his father, who is under house arrest for attempting a coup after losing to Lula in 2022. He has also vowed to change the constitution, a pledge that worries many who fear the family's authoritarian streak.
The campaign ended in bitterness. In Minas Gerais, a Workers' Party councillor, Iara Pimentel, was hospitalised after her motorcade was pelted with bottles and bricks by Bolsonaro supporters. Voters on both sides, meanwhile, explained their choices in stark terms: some saw in Lula a defender of social rights and free education, others saw in Bolsonaro an end to crime through iron-fisted security. Whatever the final count, many analysts expect a margin so narrow that the real test will be whether the loser accepts the result.
Brazilians went to the polls on Sunday for a runoff that almost nobody would call. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is 80, is trying to come back from a first-round defeat, something no Brazilian president has done before. His opponent is the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who won the first round despite not leading most polls.
That surprise made Bolsonaro the favourite three weeks ago. Since then the picture has changed. Lula's campaign gained ground, and the two men enter the contest virtually tied. The first-round gap was the narrowest ever recorded, under 2% of the vote. The final polls published on Saturday still showed Bolsonaro slightly ahead. The result is expected late Sunday evening, in a country with an electorate of 159 million.
Lula has spent much of the runoff on two tasks. One is turnout: abstention hit a record high in the first round, and it disproportionately affects his voters. The other is stoking fear of what a return to power by a Bolsonaro could mean. Flávio is 45 and has been a congressman for more than 20 years, with few bills passed. He is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula.
The son has promised to pardon his father. With an even more conservative congress taking office next year, he has also vowed to "change the constitution and re-democratise this country," a line that alarms people who fear he would follow his father's authoritarian path. Bolsonaro, for his part, voted at a school in Rio de Janeiro's north zone and said the time had come for real change. "Brazil can't take another four years the way things are," he said, adding that everyone's life had got worse.
Lula voted in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where his political career began nearly half a century ago. He said he had never seen anything like the leftist demonstrations that swept the country in support of him during the runoff, many of them emerging organically among young people. He said he could never repay what people had done for him and that he was confident they would not choose Bolsonaro.
Voters described the choice in stark terms. Nuno Rau, a 63-year-old architect and writer, said one path points toward the end of social rights and of democracy itself, while the other belongs to someone who fought for income distribution and free public education. He has criticisms of Lula, he said, but could not choose Bolsonaro. Aparecida Moreira, a 62-year-old lawyer, will vote for Bolsonaro mainly for his "iron fist" security policy, which includes five "mega-prisons" inspired by those of El Salvador's Nayib Bukele. She also backs his proposal of chemical castration for rapists. For her, a Lula vote would amount to a vote for the "dictator" Alexandre de Moraes, the justice Bolsonaro supporters associate with Lula because he oversaw Jair Bolsonaro's conviction, though Lula did not appoint him.
The campaign closed with violence. Both candidates drew large crowds to final rallies on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. In northern Minas Gerais, Iara Pimentel, a councillor from Lula's party, suffered facial injuries and was taken to hospital after her motorcade was hit by glass bottles and bricks thrown by Bolsonaro supporters. After leaving hospital she posted that it is unacceptable for people to be attacked for expressing their political views.
With each camp's supporters virtually "crystallised," the outcome rests on the small number of voters who identify with neither man. Bolsonaro began the runoff with a lead and the backing of most other defeated candidates, yet he stagnated in the polls. Analysts point to a sudden fear of a Bolsonaro return and to two federal police inquiries into alleged corruption and money laundering that involve him. Lula changed his digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests, most of which did not involve him directly. Political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles said that in the first round his campaign failed to connect, but civil society movements have driven his growth since.
Many analysts expect a narrow margin either way. Some believe that if Lula wins, Bolsonaro could refuse to concede as his father did, and that Donald Trump, a longstanding ally of the family, might not recognise the result. Telles notes that rightwing candidates have won all seven Latin American presidential elections since Trump's second term began, leaving Brazil as one of the few countries offering resistance. The thing to watch tonight is the margin, and whether the loser accepts it.
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Politics & Governance