ASEAN Positioned to Seize Opportunities Amid Global Power Shift

The world is reorganizing itself, and Southeast Asia finds itself in an unusually consequential position. The old architecture—built on Western dominance and Cold War certainties—is cracking. In its place, something messier and more multipolar is emerging. At a seminar in Bangkok this week, scholars and former diplomats gathered to ask what this means for ASEAN, the ten-nation bloc that sits at the intersection of every major power's interests.

Amitav Acharya, an international relations scholar at American University, offered a reframing that ran counter to much of the anxious commentary about geopolitical decline. The erosion of Western dominance, he argued, does not signal civilizational collapse. Instead, it creates space for something different: a world order built on contributions from multiple civilizations rather than imposed by a single one. Interdependence, free trade, respect for sovereignty—these principles, often described as Western inventions, have become genuinely global. The question is not whether the West will maintain its grip, but whether the transition can produce something more genuinely pluralistic.

For ASEAN, this framing matters enormously. The region has always been caught between larger powers. Now, with the United States and China competing for influence, with India rising, with Russia and Europe all seeking leverage, ASEAN faces a choice about how to navigate without being pulled apart. Acharya posed the central problem sharply: Can a fragmenting world still sustain cooperation? How can Southeast Asian nations maintain strategic autonomy without being forced to choose sides?

Piti Srisangnam, who leads the ASEAN Foundation, described the current moment as one of genuine uncertainty. Geopolitical rivalries are intensifying. Supply chains are being redrawn. Climate disruptions are accelerating. Digital transformation is reshaping economies overnight. The instinct, he suggested, is to resist or to hunker down. Instead, ASEAN's best strategy is to anchor itself in openness, inclusivity, and cooperative frameworks—to remain cohesive precisely when fragmentation is the easier path.

But maintaining that cohesion while pursuing individual economic interests is harder than it sounds. Several experts noted that ASEAN countries are increasingly pursuing what might be called a dual-track strategy: deepening ties with major partners—China, the United States, Japan, India—while resisting full alignment with any single power. Some countries are pursuing market access and investment from multiple sources simultaneously. This is pragmatic but also precarious. It requires constant diplomatic balancing.

Arthayudh Srisamoot, a former Thai foreign ministry adviser, argued that ASEAN should not try to replicate the European Union's model of deep political integration. Instead, the bloc should focus on practical connectivity, on expanding intra-regional trade, and on presenting unified positions on regional frameworks like the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Equally important, ASEAN needs faster mechanisms to address problems that cross borders: climate change, environmental degradation, pandemic preparedness. These are not optional concerns. They will define whether the region thrives or merely survives.

The economic dimension is equally critical. The traditional markets—the United States, Europe, Japan—will remain important. But ASEAN's future depends on broadening its partnerships. China, Russia, India, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America: these emerging partners represent both markets and sources of investment and technical expertise. The region cannot afford to remain dependent on a handful of wealthy democracies.

For China specifically, Acharya suggested, the changing world order presents both responsibility and opportunity. Rather than simply extracting resources or imposing its model, China could serve as a constructive bridge between the existing international order and an emerging, more pluralistic one. This would mean not just infrastructure projects, but contributing ideas to global governance, supporting humanitarian efforts, and expanding participation in multilateral institutions. Whether China will embrace this role remains an open question. What is clear is that ASEAN's ability to shape its own future depends partly on how the major powers choose to behave, and partly on whether the region can maintain the unity and strategic clarity to seize the opportunities that disruption creates.