Americans Rejected Data Centres at the Polls. Australia Now Faces Its Own Test

A tech industry increasingly desperate for a new place to call home
The analysis says a US slowdown could strengthen Australia's hand in negotiating with AI companies.
Mark

Why does a US election result matter for Australia at all?

Mimi

Because Australia is courting the same industry. Both major parties here want AI companies building big data centres, and the US vote shows how quickly that can turn sour.

Mark

How bad was it for the industry in America?

Mimi

About 41 proposals in ten states, and all but one are on track to lose. Hinojosa won in Texas, where the biggest pipeline sits, and she has called for a ban.

Luke

Careful with "on track." Those results weren't final in the piece, so the tally could shift. And the Texas ban is a stated position, not yet carried out.

Mark

What were voters actually rejecting?

Mimi

Nobody knows yet. Environment, local resistance, inflation, AI itself, job fears. The author says it's probably a mix.

Luke

Right, and that's the gap. The 76 per cent opposition figure is from an NBC exit poll. It tells us they oppose it, not why.

Mark

Is Australia headed for the same backlash?

Mimi

Not necessarily. Capacity is about 1.6 gigawatts against roughly 50 in the US, and 44 per cent oppose one nearby versus 76 per cent in America.

Luke

Though that 50 gigawatt number is one estimate, and the 44 per cent comes from a single recent poll. Also, organisers here have had recent wins, so the gap may narrow.

Mark

And the leverage point?

Mimi

If US building slows, AI firms need space elsewhere, and Australia is on their wish list. The government's rules are due by year's end.

Luke

That leverage is the author's reasoning, not a demonstrated outcome. We'll only know when the rules land.

  • Nearly all 41 data centre ballot measures across ten US states were heading for defeat, a rebuke that caught the industry off guard.
  • Data centres went from invisible to politically toxic in two years, with about 5% of US TV political ads mentioning them and three-quarters of exit-poll voters opposing one nearby.
  • Texas's new governor, who has called for a construction ban, threatens to dent the country's biggest pipeline of planned facilities.
  • Australian leaders are eager to lure major AI training to local soil, and a joint parliamentary inquiry has already signalled what it would take.
  • Australia's rules, due by year's end, are being drafted to avoid the American backlash while the US slowdown tightens global AI compute and gives Canberra new leverage.

In the American midterms, voters were offered a direct say on data centres and, across ten states, they mostly said no, handing the industry a political setback that has begun to echo well beyond the ballot box. The reasons are still tangled: fears about the environment, strain on local communities, rising costs, unease with AI and big tech, and anxiety about automation may all be at work, and how much each weighs will shape what comes next. Australia, far smaller in capacity and calmer in public mood, is watching this with a mix of caution and opportunity, aware that a slowing American build-out could send AI companies its way. The question it now faces is whether it can learn from that backlash or whether it will repeat the same story on its own soil, a question its forthcoming rules will begin to answer.

When American voters were given a direct choice on data centres this week, they mostly said no. About 41 proposals went before voters across ten states, and nearly all were on track to be defeated. The result landed on a midterm night that was already hard for the Republican Party, and it stood out because data centres barely registered as a political issue two years ago.

The most striking outcome may be in Texas, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governor's race in an upset. She has called for a ban on data centre construction, and Texas holds the largest pipeline of planned facilities in the country. If she follows through, the effect on national construction could be significant.

The issue spread quickly through the campaign. About 5 per cent of political ads on American television mentioned data centres, most of them negatively, and in Wisconsin the share reached 14 per cent. An NBC exit poll found three-quarters of voters opposed a data centre in their community. By the end, candidates from both parties were opposing construction, while President Trump remained a lonely defender of the industry.

What voters were actually rejecting remains unclear: environmental worry, local resistance, inflation, hostility to big tech, or fear of automation may all be part of it, and the balance will matter.

Australia is watching but has been warned not to copy the result. Its 163 data centres total about 1.6 gigawatts, against roughly 50 gigawatts in the US. Only 44 per cent of Australians say they would oppose one nearby, and its major parties lean toward attracting investment. A joint parliamentary inquiry has already outlined what would be needed to bring top AI companies to train here, a goal Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has endorsed.

Officials and industry figures are not alarmed. They expect the American result may encourage local opponents, who have won a few recent battles, but they believe the backlash can be avoided by bringing AI investment in on "our terms." New government rules, expected by year's end, are meant to do exactly that.

A slower US build-out could also give Australia leverage. Major AI companies already compete for computing capacity, and fewer American options would push them abroad. More investment, tighter rules and a stronger say in operations could follow. The open question is whether Canberra can avoid the American backlash or whether it is simply heading toward the same fate, and the new rules will be the first test.

When American voters were handed a direct choice on data centres this week, they mostly said no. About 41 proposals went before voters across ten states, and all but one are on track to go against the industry. That came in a midterm night that was already rough for the Republican Party, which lost heavily in what the ABC's analysis calls a blue wave.

The most consequential result may be in Texas, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governor's race in an upset. Hinojosa has called for a ban on data centre construction, and Texas currently has the biggest pipeline of planned data centres in the country. If she carries out the ban, it would likely put a significant dent in national construction.

The broader effect is political. Five per cent of all political ads on American television mentioned data centres, and most of those were negative. In Wisconsin, a state that has become a hot spot for construction, the figure reached as high as 14 per cent. An NBC News exit poll found three-quarters of voters opposed building data centres in their community, and more than half said the issue was crucial or major in how they voted.

Data centres were not the top issue. Corruption, cost of living, immigration and the Iran War all ranked higher. But two years ago data centres were not a political issue at all, and the author could not find an exit poll that even asked about them. By the end of the campaign, candidates from both major parties were opposing construction. President Donald Trump remained a vocal and increasingly lonely supporter of data centres and his rebranded "super intelligence".

What voters were actually rejecting is unsettled. It could be environmental worry, local resistance to new development, the industry's contribution to inflation, hostility to AI or big tech, or white-collar anxiety about automation. The author says it is likely a mix, but the proportions will matter.

Australia's political class is watching closely, though the analysis cautions against transplanting the American result. Australia's 163 existing data centres have a combined capacity of about 1.6 gigawatts, according to Data Centres Australia. One estimate puts US capacity at around 50 gigawatts, roughly 30 times as much. Australia's largest facility, AirTrunk's MEL1 in western Melbourne, is about ten times smaller than the known capacity of Elon Musk's Colossus 2, which was reportedly powered for a time by gas turbines lacking environmental permits, something looser US rules allowed.

Opposition is also lower here. Recent polling found 44 per cent of Australians would oppose a data centre near them, against 76 per cent of Americans in exit polls. And the two major parties here lean the opposite way. Last month, the chairs of the parliamentary joint inquiry into AI, Labor's Jo Briskey and the Liberals' deputy chair Jonathon Duniam, sent an unusual mid-inquiry letter giving an early indicator of findings. It listed what would be needed to get top AI companies to do their training in Australia, a goal Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also stated. In effect, Australia wants big data centres built here.

Politicians, staffers and industry figures the author spoke to are not terrified. They know the stigma exists, and many expect the US result to embolden local anti-data centre organisers, who have had a few wins in recent weeks. But they believe the backlash can be avoided by attracting AI investment on "our terms". That is the thinking behind new government rules for data centres, expected by the end of the year.

A US slowdown could also hand Australia leverage. Major AI companies already compete for computing resources, and a slower American build-out would tighten that crunch and push them to look abroad. Australia is among a small group of favoured destinations, so more money, stricter rules and a bigger say over operations could all be on the table. The open question for Canberra is whether the American backlash is a cautionary tale it can avoid, or the political destiny of a successful push to lure AI companies here. The government's rules, due by year's end, will be the first test.

Australia's major parties want AI companies to build big data centres here, and hope to do it on 'our terms'.
— Politicians, staffers and industry figures interviewed by the ABC's author
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