After the Trump coalition's midterm collapse, Republicans face a choice: double down on Trumpism or chart a new course

Three days after the 2026 midterms, Donald Trump named Stephen Miller his new White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. Miller had been the president's chief domestic policy adviser, and he is a longtime aide best known for hardline immigration policies. The appointment was read as a signal that Trump does not intend to soften his policies or his message in his remaining years in office, even after an election that left his party badly bruised.

The scale of the defeat is the backdrop to everything now being argued over. Republicans lost the House and the Senate. They also lost governorships and state legislatures in red states such as Texas and Kansas, where Democrats had been shut out of power for decades and where Trump won by double digits when he was on the ballot. Outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called the result "close to an extinction-level event for Republicans." Vice-President JD Vance was more optimistic, saying the party could turn things around, but he conceded that "there will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why."

That fight is already under way. Vance blamed public anger over the war with Iran. Steve Bannon, one of the architects of the Maga movement, predicted a "civil war" in the party. He blamed the loss on the economy and "foreign wars", said he did not think the Maga programme had been implemented, and urged Trump to double down on mass deportations. Never Trumpers, who opposed Trump's first campaign, point to the historic losses and want a return to the party's pre-Trump roots. Rina Shah, a Republican strategist, told the BBC the party must decide whether to centre on "one figure, one guy," or on a wider set of ideas like conservatism that can win outside the deepest red places.

Turning back the clock would be extremely difficult. After a decade of Trump, most Republicans have moved right on domestic issues like immigration and rejected the interventionist foreign policy of the George W Bush era. In Congress, the moderate establishment wing that disliked Trump from the start has almost entirely disappeared, replaced by Trump backers who echo his nativism and populist rhetoric. That continued this year, when old-guard Republicans who had clashed with Trump, John Cornyn in Texas and Susan Collins in Maine, lost their seats.

The coalition that carried Trump in 2024 unravelled quickly. He had widened the base then, gaining among Latinos and younger voters, and Republicans hailed those gains as a sign of future strength. According to a New York Times analysis of voter data, Latino support for Democratic candidates rose 29 percentage points between 2024 and 2026, and support among voters aged 18 to 29 rose 33 points. Pre-election polling had already shown widespread disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, immigration and the Iran war. Democrats also benefited from a perception of self-dealing and corruption around the Trump family and administration, and the president's attention to the White House ballroom and other Washington construction projects fed a sense that he cared more about legacy than affordability.

Benjamin Shrader, who leads the Young Republicans in Austin, was still shell-shocked when he spoke to the BBC the morning after Texas Republicans were nearly wiped out by a Democratic "blue tsunami." He called Trump a "force of nature," but when asked about the president using his first post-election appearance to show off the ballroom, he hesitated. "I would focus on issues that are not ballrooms, that are not renaming things. I would focus on what matters," he said.

Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, said there are still plenty of Maga voters who have backed Trump through thick and thin, but that a significant portion of the party is non-Maga, "and that's a majority now." He also said that before the midterms Vance was the odds-on favourite for the 2028 nomination, and that the race is now "completely wide open."

Vance has tried to thread a needle. His post-election statement on X blamed the Iran war and called for a return to "America First," breaking with Trump on an unpopular war while embracing a brand that remains popular with the Maga base. He also echoed growing right-wing calls to re-examine US support for Israel and signalled openness to some changes in immigration enforcement, which puts him at odds with Miller, a Vance ally. His analysis was widely read as an unofficial signal that he will run. Other rumoured contenders include Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Chris Christie.

Hopefuls may face pressure to declare within months, and some could launch before year's end. Trump's endorsement is the biggest wildcard; he has praised both Vance and Rubio but typically deflects questions about a successor. His next moves on Iran will also be watched closely, since escalation would risk feeding the concerns Vance has voiced. Ayres expects a field larger and more diverse than anyone anticipated before the midterms.