In the weeks after Charlie Kirk was shot dead at Utah Valley University and a Minnesota gunman killed state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband in their home, the AP-NORC Center polled 1,289 Americans on how much they fear political violence. The answers reveal less a single national mood than a divided one, shaped as much by the decades a person has lived as by the political tribe they belong to. Older adults carry memories of past upheavals and feel the danger acutely, while the young, though no less convinced that speech is under strain, hold that threat more at a distance. Together the fi
Younger Americans Less Worried About Political Violence, Free Speech Threats, AP-NORC Poll Finds
Two Minnesota lawmakers were shot in June, with state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband killed, and conservative activist Charlie Kirk was shot dead in September at Utah Valley University.
Something's going to go wrong.
Mark
The headline number is about 4 in 10 worried. Why is the age gap the story?
Mimi
Because it's large. About half of people 60 and older are highly concerned, and about 3 in 10 under 30 are. That's a real difference in how the same events are being absorbed.
Mark
Does that mean young people think everything is fine?
Mimi
Not on speech. About half of adults see a major threat to free speech, and there's no age gap there. Young people see the threat; they're just less personally worried about its effect on liberals or conservatives.
Luke
That reading is the pollsters' interpretation, though. The poll shows the numbers, not why younger people answered that way.
Mark
And the partisan split?
Mimi
People worry most about their own side. About 6 in 10 Republicans worry about violence against conservatives, 27% about violence against liberals. Democrats mirror it at about 6 in 10 and 38%.
Luke
Worth noting these are stated concerns, not measures of actual risk. Also, with 1,289 respondents and a 3.8-point margin, subgroup figures like those under 30 are shakier than the overall numbers.
Mark
Do the interviewees explain the gap?
Mimi
Partly. DiGiovine, 74, points to Kent State. Anderson, 23, says many people his age aren't doing well and extreme action can feel like a better option.
Luke
Those are two individuals. They illustrate perspectives, but they can't establish why the age gap exists.
O Pulso
- Two political killings in a single year have pushed Americans to ask who is next, and roughly four in ten now say they are deeply worried.
- Older adults, many recalling Kent State and other past upheavals, feel the alarm far more intensely than people under 30, who are notably less frightened.
- Each party sees danger mainly to its own side, with Republicans fearing violence against conservatives and Democrats fearing it against liberals.
- Half of Americans see a major threat to free speech, yet the sense of crisis is split along party and age lines, leaving no shared alarm to act on.
In the weeks after Charlie Kirk was shot dead at Utah Valley University and a Minnesota gunman killed state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband in their home, the AP-NORC Center polled 1,289 Americans on how much they fear political violence. The answers reveal less a single national mood than a divided one, shaped as much by the decades a person has lived as by the political tribe they belong to. Older adults carry memories of past upheavals and feel the danger acutely, while the young, though no less convinced that speech is under strain, hold that threat more at a distance. Together the findings sketch a country that agrees something is wrong while disagreeing sharply about whose fear matters most.
The poll was taken in mid-October, weeks after Charlie Kirk was shot dead while speaking at Utah Valley University, and months after a gunman killed Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband in their home. The Associated Press-NORC Center asked 1,289 adults how worried they are about political violence, and the sharpest divide was between the old and the young.
About 44% said they are highly concerned about violence aimed at conservatives, and 41% said the same of violence aimed at liberals. But about half of adults 60 and older are deeply worried, compared with roughly 3 in 10 under 30.
Tony DiGiovine, a 74-year-old Phoenix Democrat, traces his fear to memory: he recalled the 1970 Kent State shootings, when National Guard troops killed unarmed protesters. "Something's going to go wrong," he said. Ryan Striker, a 34-year-old New Hampshire music teacher, fears that every act of violence will set off a snowball effect.
The generational pattern repeats on free speech. Half of those 60 and older worry about threats to conservatives' speech, against about a quarter of the young. Yet half of all adults see a major threat to free speech, and young people are not dismissive of it; they simply feel less personally tied to whose speech is at risk.
Party matters as much as age. About 6 in 10 Republicans are highly concerned about violence against conservatives, but only 27% fear it against liberals. Democrats show the mirror image. On rights, about two-thirds of Democrats see a major threat to free speech and press, while only about 3 in 10 Republicans say the same of speech.
Some voices carried a wider unease. Jeff Milligan, a 72-year-old Ohio Republican, said his concern about rights has faded since "President Trump was elected." Craig Tenhoff, an independent in California, worries that people have stopped talking and compromising and started vilifying one another. Max Anderson, a 23-year-old college student in Colorado, fears that violence from any direction may start to look like a way out for young people who feel left behind.
The poll was fielded October 9 to 13, a few weeks after Charlie Kirk was shot dead while speaking to an audience at Utah Valley University, and a few months after a gunman killed Minnesota state lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband in their home. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research asked 1,289 adults how worried they are about political violence. The sharpest difference in the answers was between old and young.
Overall, 44% of U.S. adults said they are extremely or very concerned about political violence aimed at conservative figures or organizations. Another 41% said the same about violence aimed at liberal figures and groups. But about half of adults 60 and older are highly concerned about violence in either direction, compared with about 3 in 10 adults under 30.
The June attack in Minnesota also wounded state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife. The Justice Department described it as the shooter's calculated plan to inflict fear and violence on Minnesota elected officials and their families. Authorities also called Kirk's killing in September an act of political violence.
Tony DiGiovine, a 74-year-old retired electrical engineer and musician in Phoenix, and a Democrat, said his worry comes from memory. He recalled Kent State, where in 1970 the National Guard shot and killed unarmed students protesting the Vietnam War. The Guard, he said, is not trained to patrol American streets, and neither are the armed forces. "Something's going to go wrong," he said. Ryan Striker, a 34-year-old music teacher in Manchester, New Hampshire, who is politically independent, liberal and opposed to President Trump, said he fears a snowball effect whenever violence occurs.
The generational pattern repeats on free speech. About half of those 60 and older are highly concerned about threats to conservatives' free speech, against about one-quarter of those under 30. The gap is smaller, but still substantial, for liberals' speech. Yet the poll does not show young people shrugging off the issue. About half of all adults see a major threat to freedom of speech, and there is no age divide on that. The pollsters read this to mean younger adults do think speech is threatened, but are less personally worried about how that affects liberals or conservatives. About 4 in 10 adults see a major threat to freedom of the press, and about 3 in 10 say the same of the right to vote and the right to keep and bear arms. On voting, only about 2 in 10 under 30 see a major threat, versus about 4 in 10 of those 60 and older.
Party matters as much as age. About 6 in 10 Republicans are highly concerned about violence against conservatives, but only 27% are about violence against liberals. About 6 in 10 Democrats are highly concerned about violence against liberals, while 38% are about violence against conservatives. The pattern is strongest among conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats. About one-quarter of independents are highly concerned about violence in either direction.
The partisan split is wider still on rights. About two-thirds of Democrats say free speech and freedom of the press face a major threat. Among Republicans, about 3 in 10 say so of speech and about 2 in 10 of the press. Jeff Milligan, a 72-year-old Republican from Logan, Ohio, said he worries more about violence against conservatives than liberals, and that he once worried more about threats to fundamental rights than he does now. Asked what changed, he said: "President Trump was elected."
Others voiced a broader unease. Craig Tenhoff, 58, an independent in Simi Valley, California, said it is concerning that people stop talking and compromising and start vilifying opponents. Max Anderson, a 23-year-old liberal-leaning independent and college student in Fort Collins, Colorado, said he worries about violence from across the spectrum. Many people his age, he said, are not doing well, and extreme avenues of action can start to seem like a better option. The poll's margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Citações Notáveis
I worry because anytime political violence happens, it seems like it can be a snowball effect.— Ryan Striker, 34, music teacher in Manchester, New Hampshire
I think a lot of people my age aren't generally doing good right now.— Max Anderson, 23, college student in Fort Collins, Colorado
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