Younger Americans Less Worried About Political Violence and Free Speech Threats, AP-NORC Poll Finds

In June, Minnesota state lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot to death in their home. State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife were wounded in the same attack, which the Justice Department described as the shooter's calculated plan to inflict fear and violence on Minnesota elected officials and their families. In September, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was shot dead while speaking to an audience on the campus of Utah Valley University, an act authorities also called political violence. A new AP-NORC poll asks how Americans are absorbing all this, and the answer depends heavily on how old they are and which party they belong to.

The poll found that 44% of U.S. adults are extremely or very concerned about political violence directed at conservative figures or organizations, and 41% say the same about violence aimed at liberal figures and groups. But the generational split is wide. About half of adults 60 and older are highly concerned about political violence against either side, compared with about 3 in 10 adults under 30.

Tony DiGiovine, a 74-year-old Democrat, retired electrical engineer and musician in Phoenix, reached back to 1970, when the National Guard shot and killed unarmed students protesting the Vietnam War at Kent State University. "I remember Kent State. I was around then," he said, adding that neither the Guard nor the armed forces are trained to patrol American streets and that something is going to go wrong. Ryan Striker, a 34-year-old music teacher in Manchester, New Hampshire, who is politically independent, liberal and opposed to President Trump, said he worries because political violence can seem to snowball.

The same pattern appears on free speech. Roughly 4 in 10 adults overall are highly concerned about limits on conservatives' or liberals' speech. Among those 60 and older, about half are highly concerned about threats to conservatives' speech, while only about a quarter of those under 30 are. The gap is smaller, though still substantial, when it comes to liberals.

On fundamental rights more broadly, about half of adults see a major threat to freedom of speech and about 4 in 10 say so about freedom of the press. About 3 in 10 see major threats to the right to vote and the right to bear arms. There was no age divide on free speech: younger adults appear to believe it is threatened, even if they are less personally worried about what that means for liberals or conservatives. The right to vote did split by age, with about 2 in 10 adults under 30 seeing a major threat, compared with about 4 in 10 of those 60 and older.

Party matters at least as much as age. About 6 in 10 Republicans are highly concerned about violence against conservatives, while only 27% feel that way about violence against liberals. About 6 in 10 Democrats are highly concerned about violence against liberals, versus 38% for violence against conservatives. The effect is strongest at the ends of the spectrum: conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats worry far more about their own side than moderates in their parties do. About a quarter of independents are highly concerned about violence in either direction.

Perceptions of rights are similarly split. About two-thirds of Democrats say freedom of speech and freedom of the press face a major threat. Only about 3 in 10 Republicans say that of speech, and about 2 in 10 of the press. Jeff Milligan, a 72-year-old Republican from Logan, Ohio, who worries more about violence against conservatives, said he used to be more concerned about threats to fundamental rights. Asked what changed, he answered, "President Trump was elected."

Some respondents voiced a broader unease. Craig Tenhoff, a 58-year-old independent from Simi Valley, California, said it is concerning that people seem to be reaching the point of no longer talking or compromising, and instead vilifying opponents. Max Anderson, a 23-year-old liberal-leaning independent and college student in Fort Collins, Colorado, said he worries about violence from across the spectrum. Many people his age aren't doing well right now, he said, and that makes more extreme avenues of action seem like a better option.

The poll surveyed 1,289 adults from Oct. 9 to 13 using NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for adults overall. What remains to be seen is whether these generational and partisan differences in perceived threat shape how the public responds to political violence going forward.