Yotova Wins Bulgaria's Presidency on a 'Peace' Pledge as the Country Splits Over Ukraine

Bulgaria's presidential runoff was framed in advance as a choice between two futures. "We are choosing between war and peace," Prime Minister Rumen Radev told voters before Sunday's vote, which pitted incumbent President Iliana Yotova against former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov. Yotova opposes military aid to Ukraine and favors dialogue with Russia. Gyurov is regarded as staunchly pro-European and pro-Ukrainian. By the time the official count was in, Yotova had won decisively, 57.6% to 39.5%, and Radev claimed that Bulgarians had chosen peace.

The outcome was less foreordained than the margin suggests. When the campaign opened on September 25, polls put Yotova well ahead at 44.5%, with Gyurov far behind at 26.1%. She had the backing of the prime minister and his ruling Progressive Bulgaria party, which won an absolute majority in the April 19 parliamentary election. But the first round was much tighter: Yotova took 34.8% and Gyurov 31.95%, forcing a runoff.

The result, and the campaign that preceded it, exposed a divided electorate. Dimitar Ganev, a sociologist and political scientist at the Trend market and electoral research agency, told DW the split runs along lines of age and geography. Voters between 18 and 40 favor Gyurov, he said, while those over 40 tend toward Yotova. Gyurov dominates in the capital, Sofia, while in smaller regional cities, towns and villages Yotova dominates decisively.

The two campaigns looked different too. Gyurov leaned mainly on social media. Yotova mostly addressed Progressive Bulgaria supporters in closed venues, where the war in Ukraine was always high on the agenda. At an October 6 rally she declared that as long as she is president, "not a single Bulgarian soldier will go to Ukraine." Under the Bulgarian Constitution, though, only parliament, not the president, can send troops abroad or declare war. She called her opponents "warmongers" and herself the "president of peace." After the vote she said: "We won because we talked to people about income and about peace."

Her line tracks Radev's. He regularly speaks of the need for peace and avoids calling Russia an "aggressor." Both he and Yotova oppose military aid to Ukraine and criticize European leaders for not doing enough to engage Vladimir Putin. Gyurov has sharply condemned Russian aggression. Yotova appointed him caretaker prime minister in February, and in March he signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, which drew disapproval from both Yotova and Radev.

In the weeks before the vote, drones hit several ships in the Black Sea off the Bulgarian coast. The European Council criticized Russia for the escalation, and the European Parliament urged the EU and its member states to consider deploying an EU naval operation there. Radev went no further than summoning the Russian ambassador and saying that "logic suggests" the outcome of the attacks favors the Russian Federation. Days before the runoff, he noted that two ships were struck and sunk in Romanian territorial waters after Romania held Russia responsible, and said many people think the attacks will stop once the aggressor is identified. That downplayed the Kremlin's role and drew criticism from Romanian politicians and media. Yotova also avoided naming Russia, saying only that she did not want "foreign flags in Bulgaria," a clear reference to the Ukrainian flags displayed outside several institutions as a sign of solidarity.

The field was narrow. Most opposition parties, including GERB, led by former long-serving Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, declined to field a candidate, which helps explain turnout below 30%. In round one, Kostadin Kostadinov of the nationalist Vazrazhdane party finished third with 12.5%. Ganev estimates about 70% of Vazrazhdane voters backed Yotova in the runoff. She courted them, saying in a podcast two days before the vote that "Russia is by no means an enemy of Bulgaria" and hoping it would be a key factor in Europe's future security architecture. Some of her supporters also claimed the opposition was preparing a "Maidan." Sonya Momchilova, a Radev appointee to the media regulator, wrote on Facebook that Gyurov's "lackeys" were using prime time to stir one up. Similar claims were made by Viktor Orban and Aleksandar Vucic before this year's elections in their countries.

Assessments of the consequences differ. Former Defense Minister Todor Tagarev, who sat on the committee that nominated Gyurov, said the peace pledge is tied to stoking fear of war and that Bulgaria will be in a much worse position in Europe and NATO under Yotova. Ganev sees no threat to Bulgaria's commitments, noting that over two-thirds of Bulgarians do not question its geopolitical orientation and about two-thirds view the EU positively. Still, he said, the ambivalent positions of Radev and Yotova mobilized both pro-European voters and Eurosceptics, who make up about a third of the population. Yotova and Radev say Bulgarians chose peace. The war goes on, and the Black Sea attacks with it.