Xi's Egypt visit signals China's expanding Middle East influence amid U.S. strategic retreat

Xi Jinping stepped off the plane in Cairo on Tuesday evening to a red carpet, Egyptian and Chinese flags snapping in the breeze, military guards standing at attention. It was a formal welcome befitting a state visit—and a signal. The Chinese president had not set foot in Egypt for a decade. His arrival this week, for a three-day stay that includes talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and a tour of the Grand Egyptian Museum, marks something larger than diplomatic routine: it is China's deliberate move to deepen its grip on one of America's most important Middle East partners, at a moment when U.S. power in the region is stretched thin by its six-month war with Iran.

On the surface, the visit is about strengthening economic ties and marking 70 years of diplomatic relations between Cairo and Beijing. The two leaders published friendly opinion pieces in Egyptian state newspapers on Tuesday. Xi wrote of expanding "pragmatic collaboration" through development. El-Sissi praised China's investments and reaffirmed Egypt's support for Beijing's claim over Taiwan. But the subtext is unmistakable. China is positioning itself as a stabilizer in a region where the United States has been militarily entangled for decades, and it is doing so with deliberate precision. As Amr Hamzawy, director of the Carnegie Middle East Program in Washington, observed earlier this year, "China continues to build up its soft power reserves while the United States self-sabotages its own stock."

The numbers tell part of the story. China has invested more than $10 billion in Egypt, constructing a business hub east of Cairo and an electric rail line through the Nile Delta. Annual trade between the two countries stands at roughly $20 billion, according to government figures—exceeding the $15.7 billion in U.S.-Egypt trade recorded in 2025. Egypt, recognizing the value of diversifying its strategic partnerships, joined the BRICS bloc in 2023, a grouping of major emerging economies positioned as a counterweight to Western-led institutions. A year later, Cairo signed agreements to participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative, Xi's signature infrastructure program.

China has also cast itself as a regional mediator in ways that directly challenge American influence. In 2023, Beijing brokered a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Iran—China's most important regional ally and oil supplier—and Saudi Arabia, a longtime U.S. partner. That agreement frayed after Iran attacked Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states in retaliation for the U.S. and Israeli war launched on February 28. China has long advocated for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, positioning itself as a voice for Arab concerns. Shortly before Hamas attacked Israel in 2023, Xi hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and announced a "strategic partnership" with the Palestinian Authority.

Egypt's geographic position gives the relationship strategic weight that extends beyond trade and diplomacy. With oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz heavily disrupted by the Iran war, the Suez Canal—controlled by Egypt—has become a vital alternative route for energy supplies leaving the region. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a Middle East expert at Jakarta's Center of Economic and Law Studies, noted that "China has good reason to strengthen ties with the country that controls the route still open." He added that Xi views Egypt "as a base to reach the wider Arab and African world, at a time when the U.S. has less attention to spare there."

The military dimension of the relationship has also deepened. In August, China and Egypt conducted a multiday air exercise at several Egyptian bases—the first-ever combat exercise involving China's J-16 fighter jets and Egypt's French-made Rafale fighters. Xi's Cairo visit follows a two-day conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Kyrgyzstan's capital, Bishkek, where leaders from Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran gathered. The timing is deliberate. The Trump administration has launched what observers describe as an "economic onslaught" on Iran's financial connections worldwide, with sanctions designed to isolate Tehran from remaining economic partners—including China, which purchases more than 80 percent of Iranian oil shipments, typically through indirect channels. Beijing maintains that its trade with Iran has always complied with international law.

What emerges from Xi's visit is a portrait of strategic repositioning. The United States remains Egypt's crucial security partner, and the two countries' leaders maintain close ties. But Egypt is hedging, and China is moving methodically to fill space that American attention and resources can no longer fully occupy. The visit is not a rupture in U.S.-Egypt relations; it is a recalibration of Cairo's position in a region where the balance of power is shifting, where oil routes matter more than they have in years, and where a rising power is offering investment, infrastructure, and the promise of stability without the military entanglement that has defined American strategy for decades.