Will Oil and Metals Rise After the US Strikes on Venezuela? Analysts Expect Short-Term Moves

Before markets reopened, traders were already asking one question: what does the American operation in Venezuela do to the price of oil, gold, silver and copper? The question followed US precision strikes in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, which President Donald Trump confirmed in posts on Truth Social and later at press conferences.

According to Trump, Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of the country. He said the operation involved US military and law enforcement agencies, and he announced a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. He later said the US military had caused a blackout in Caracas to support the operation. He added that no US personnel were killed and no equipment was damaged. The article gives no casualty figures for Venezuela.

Market analysts quoted by The Economic Times expect a gap-up opening for crude oil, gold and silver. They also said Venezuela's economy is limited in size, so the effect on the Indian stock market may stay contained. Early buying interest, they cautioned, could fade as uncertainty after the US action lingers.

Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, told Mint that geopolitical tension may fuel uncertainty. He expects gap-up openings for gold, silver, copper, crude oil and gasoline. His figures: COMEX gold closed at $4,345.50 per ounce and may move to $4,380; COMEX silver may trade near $75 to $78 per ounce; Brent crude may move toward $62 to $65 per barrel.

Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, also speaking to Mint, pointed to sea routes. He said the crisis has affected routes used by Peru and Chad, which he described as major silver exporters, and that this disruption may support silver prices. He added that gold could rise on risk concerns tied to the tension.

Oil itself is a more complicated case. Venezuela holds large proven reserves, yet global crude sits near $60 per barrel, and exports have stayed limited under US sanctions. Reuters reported that PDVSA's oil production and refining ran normally after the strikes and that key oil facilities were not damaged. The port of La Guaira near Caracas was damaged, but it is not used for oil operations.

Policy signals matter as much as physical damage. Trump said the US oil embargo on Venezuela will stay in place. He also said US oil companies would enter the country to repair infrastructure and invest billions, and that the US would remain strongly involved in the oil sector during a transition period. In December, Washington announced a blockade on oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela and seized two crude cargoes. Vessel owners diverted routes, which raised PDVSA's inventories and forced it to store crude on tankers.

The production history shows how far sanctions policy moves output. According to International Energy Agency data cited in the article, production fell to 192 million barrels in 2020, then recovered in 2021 to roughly 5.5 to 6.3 lakh barrels per day. It reached 217 million barrels in 2022 and 264 million in 2023 after sanctions eased under General License 44. In 2024 it hit 315 million barrels, helped by Chevron's expansion and trade with India. In 2025 output peaked near 1.14 million barrels per day.

The article's own answer is cautious: short-term movement is likely, but lasting gains depend on actual supply disruption, sanctions policy and global demand. With the embargo staying and infrastructure limits in place, immediate changes to global crude supply look unlikely. What to watch is how the transition period shapes Venezuela's oil sector.