Nearly half the electorate hasn't settled on a candidate
In a state that has not sent a Republican to the governor's office in nearly two decades, a Riverside County sheriff carrying a presidential endorsement has quietly risen to the front of a crowded and unsettled field. A late-October poll from UC Berkeley finds Chad Bianco leading California's open gubernatorial race with just 13% support — a figure that speaks less to dominance than to the profound indecision gripping an electorate where nearly half of voters have yet to choose a side. With Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited out and June's primary still months away, California stands at one of those rare democratic crossroads where the outcome remains genuinely unwritten.
- A Trump-endorsed Republican sheriff is leading a deep-blue state's governor race — not by commanding the field, but by standing tallest in a landscape of fragments and uncertainty.
- Katie Porter's momentum collapsed between August and October, her support falling from 17% to 11% after a tense viral interview raised questions about how a single media moment can reshape a candidacy overnight.
- With 44% of registered voters still undecided, the race is less a contest of frontrunners than a vast open question — the real competition may be for the attention of voters who haven't yet begun to pay attention.
- A lawsuit filed by a rival candidate alleging Bianco campaigned in his official uniform and badge adds a legal undercurrent to the race, testing where the boundaries of institutional authority end and political ambition begins.
- The June primary will compress this sprawling field to just two names, meaning the debates, endorsements, and viral moments of the next five months carry outsized weight in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger.
California's race for governor is wide open, and most voters are still watching from the sidelines. A UC Berkeley poll conducted in late October found Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — a Republican who has endorsed Donald Trump — leading the field with 13% support among registered voters, up from 10% in August. The lead is narrow, and the more telling number may be the 44% of voters who remain undecided, suggesting the race has yet to truly begin in the minds of most Californians.
Bianco's support is almost entirely partisan: 37% among Republicans, just 1% among Democrats. That reality carries historical weight in a state that last elected a Republican governor when Arnold Schwarzenegger left office. The primary field is dominated by Democrats, and the general election terrain will be steep for any GOP candidate.
Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter sits in second place at 11%, a notable decline from her 17% standing in August. The drop coincided with a widely circulated CBS News interview in which her visible frustration with follow-up questions drew significant attention. Whether the moment directly eroded her support is uncertain, but the timing is hard to ignore.
The rest of the field is scattered across single digits — Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton at 8%, Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%, and several others including Rick Caruso and Betty Yee registering even lower, with some candidates not yet formally in the race.
A legal dispute adds texture to the contest: rival candidate Stephen Cloobeck has sued Bianco, alleging the sheriff campaigned while wearing his official uniform and badge in violation of state law — a case that quietly raises larger questions about the use of institutional authority in pursuit of political office.
The June primary will narrow the field to two candidates for November's general election. Between now and then, the undecided majority will have to choose, and the moments that resonate — or misfire — will determine who makes it through.
California's next governor will be chosen in two stages. First comes June's primary, where a crowded field of candidates will be winnowed down to just two. Then, in November, voters will make the final choice. Right now, with the primary still months away, the race is wide open—and most voters haven't made up their minds.
A poll conducted by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies in late October found that Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican who has endorsed President Donald Trump, holds a narrow lead. Bianco drew support from 13% of registered voters, up slightly from 10% in August. But that lead is modest, and the field behind him is fragmented. The real story in the numbers is what's missing: 44% of voters said they were undecided, meaning nearly half the electorate has yet to settle on a candidate.
Bianco's support breaks sharply along party lines. Among Republicans, he commands 37% backing. Among Democrats, he registers just 1%. The Republican candidate is running in a state that hasn't elected a GOP governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office. That historical context matters. California has trended Democratic for decades, and the primary field reflects that reality—most of the candidates vying for the job are Democrats.
Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, a Democrat, sits in second place with 11% support. That represents a significant drop from August, when she held 17% of voter preference. The timing is notable. In late October, Porter participated in a viral CBS News interview that drew attention for her apparent frustration with the interviewer's follow-up questions. Whether that moment directly cost her support is unclear—the poll didn't ask voters about it specifically. What the data does show is that Porter's favorability rating, while slightly higher than Bianco's overall, includes a larger share of voters who view her unfavorably.
The rest of the field is scattered. Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, each draw 8% support. Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, has 5%. Several other candidates—including businessman Rick Caruso and former state Controller Betty Yee—are in the low single digits. Some candidates, like Tom Steyer and Caruso, haven't even formally announced their candidacies yet.
One subplot worth watching involves Bianco and Stephen Cloobeck, another gubernatorial candidate. Cloobeck sued Bianco earlier this year, alleging that the sheriff violated state law by campaigning while wearing his official uniform and badge. The lawsuit highlights one of the tensions in the race: questions about how candidates use their current positions and authority.
The Berkeley poll surveyed 8,141 registered voters between October 20 and 27. It was released on November 7. The primary is scheduled for June, giving candidates and voters five months to sort through the field. California's governor serves four-year terms and can serve two consecutive terms. Current Governor Gavin Newsom is in his second term and cannot run again, which is why the seat is open. By June, the undecided 44% will have to choose, and the field will shrink. What happens between now and then—the debates, the endorsements, the moments that go viral or fall flat—will determine which two candidates make it to November.
Notable Quotes
Bianco's support breaks sharply along party lines: 37% among Republicans, 1% among Democrats— UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a sheriff from Riverside County lead this race when he's only at 13%?
He doesn't really lead—he's just the first one people have heard of. In a fragmented field with 44% undecided, 13% is enough to be in front. But it's not a mandate.
Katie Porter dropped from 17% to 11%. Was it the CBS interview?
The timing suggests it, but the poll didn't ask. What we know is that voters who do have an opinion of her are split—she's liked by some, disliked by others. That's a vulnerability.
Why does Bianco's support split so cleanly along party lines?
Because California is a Democratic state, and he's the only Republican with any real visibility in the race. Republicans will consolidate around him. Democrats are still shopping.
Does it matter that 44% are undecided?
It matters enormously. That's not noise—that's the actual race. Everything that happens between now and June is fighting for those voters.
When was the last Republican governor?
Arnold Schwarzenegger. That was a different era. It tells you how much the state has changed, and how steep the hill is for Bianco.
What's the lawsuit about?
Bianco was campaigning in his sheriff's uniform. Cloobeck says that's illegal—using the office to campaign. It's a real question about whether you can separate the badge from the candidate.