Why Westminster can't stop talking about an early election, despite Burnham's categorical denials

Walk through Parliament right now and one question keeps coming up in conversation: is there going to be an early general election? Prime Minister Andy Burnham has almost three years before he is obliged to call one, and he has repeatedly and categorically ruled out going to the country early. The talk has not stopped, and plenty of MPs think a vote is a real possibility. After Wednesday's Budget, it has only grown louder.

The case for an early poll rests largely on how that Budget was built. One former Labour minister asked why you would hand out a few politically smart, if small, giveaways now, yet push the truly tough and unpopular decisions on welfare and defence to an autumn spending review, unless you were creating a window for a spring election. Others told the BBC that Chancellor John Healey's plans felt like a pre-election programme. The measures include £100 of help for many people with energy bills, an extension of VAT cuts on electricity bills, and a Your First Home scheme to help young voters onto the housing ladder.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has pointed out that some of the voter-friendly measures expire in the summer, and asked whether the prime minister plans to call an election before they run out. The counter-argument is that household energy pressures ease in summer anyway. Some MPs add that Burnham is popular at the moment, that Labour leads in most polls, and that Reform, which led for some time, has had a difficult few months. Will things ever look better for Burnham, they ask. Then there is the chancellor's to-do list: finding money for higher defence spending, bringing down the welfare bill, and cutting departmental budgets to balance the books. One Conservative MP reckons Healey is delaying all the bad stuff until after a poll.

The numbers being floated come from the opposition. The Liberal Democrats claim a 30% chance of a general election on 10 December and say the party has been put on a snap election footing. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage thinks there could be one in May. The BBC notes that such predictions come mostly from opposition MPs, some of whom may enjoy stirring up trouble. Still, with an election not due until August 2029, some Labour MPs are so convinced one is coming that they have told their staff to prepare for the first half of next year.

The arguments against are substantial. Burnham has ruled it out in interviews, and on Wednesday said explicitly there would be no election in the next 12 months. Politicians can change their minds, but one veteran Tory believes a reversal after such emphatic denials would badly damage Brand Burnham. The economy is another brake: the Office for Budget Responsibility called the overall outlook pretty grim. Real household disposable income looks set to fall in the coming months, interest rates are predicted to rise, and nobody knows how the situation in the Middle East will unfold.

There is also the matter of what Burnham would be asking voters to endorse. He has pledged a rewiring of the British state and promised the most significant change in British politics in four decades, and he plans to publish a 10-year plan in the coming weeks. Without more detail, some wonder whether voters would know enough to judge. Several Labour figures found the Budget too modest for an election campaign. One former minister said it was not an end to 40 years of neoliberalism. Another MP called it too low key to be an election Budget, and a third described it as a play-it-safe, crumbs-for-all affair, adding that an early election after it would leave Labour toast.

Some argue Burnham would gain from his own mandate and manifesto. But after Labour's huge win last time, many MPs think the party is bound to lose ground. Others say that if the government needs to break Sir Keir Starmer's manifesto commitments by raising taxes, it should simply do so rather than call an election, since it is easier with a massive majority than to campaign on the basis of raising taxes. As one Labour MP put it, plenty of governments have broken manifesto promises. A detailed social care plan for England is still some way off, and Burnham has not decided how far to take the UK closer to the EU.

History offers two warnings. Gordon Brown declined to call an election in October 2007 while ahead in the polls, and Labour wonders whether it would have stayed in power had he gone. Theresa May called a snap election in April 2017 after thinking it over on a walking holiday in Wales, and despite flying high in the polls, the Tories lost their majority. Burnham may be tempted, the BBC concludes, but the risks make it far from an easy choice.