What Happens Now That Trump Has Turned on Putin, and Why the Reset Failed

On Thursday, President Donald Trump told NBC News that he had arranged a deal through NATO to get new Patriot anti-missile missiles to Ukraine, which badly needs them to stop Russian attacks on civilian targets. "We're sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, a hundred percent," he said, adding that the Patriots would go to NATO, which would then distribute them. The exact terms were not immediately clear, and CNN had asked the alliance for details.

The announcement follows a sharp turn in how Trump talks about Vladimir Putin. This week he said he was fed up with the Russian leader's "bullsh*t." Of Putin he said, "He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." For years Trump had praised Putin's smarts and strength. After returning to office he turned on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, including in a notorious Oval Office blow-up. Throughout, Putin rejected the generous terms Trump offered for a ceasefire and an eventual peace agreement. In effect Trump has moved from blaming Ukraine, the victim of the invasion that began in 2022, to accusing Russia of needlessly prolonging the war.

The analysis argues that Putin's refusal makes sense on his own terms. A US-backed deal could have locked in his territorial gains and ruled out a path to NATO membership for Ukraine, something European allies feared would reward aggression. But Putin has framed the war as righting a historic wrong, rooted in Russia's old claims on Ukraine and in grievances dating to the fall of the Berlin Wall, which he watched as a KGB lieutenant colonel in East Germany. His talk of the war's "root causes" signals demands that include the end of a democratic government in Kyiv and the withdrawal of alliance troops from former Soviet-orbit states such as Poland and Romania. After hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties, the war may be existential for his political survival. On this reading, the central Trump assumption that Putin could be persuaded to make a deal was misguided from the start.

The pressure on the ground is mounting. Drone attacks on Kyiv have intensified, including a night of strikes on July 10 that left debris strewn across a street. A drone strike in Zaporizhzhia on June 18 destroyed a car repair service lot. The piece reads the Kyiv attacks as a message to the White House: Putin raises stakes with human lives rather than bluster.

Whether Trump's anger lasts is an open question. Several times in recent months he has criticized Putin and then softened his words. Even if he is now talking about helping Ukraine defend itself, it is hard to see him matching the tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid Congress sent under Biden. Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations told CNN International, "I think Trump gets it now. He's got to put more pressure on Russia if he's going to get a deal with Ukraine." That pressure could mean more US arms and ammunition, alongside increased European aid, or full White House backing for a bipartisan bill imposing tough sanctions on Russia and on China and India, bulk buyers of its oil.

Motive matters too. Trump may be angry mainly because Putin denied him a deal that would bolster his hopes of being a peacemaker and winning a Nobel Prize, rather than taking a strategic position on the war. In April he said, "Getting along with Russia is a good thing." Some analysts think he could compartmentalize Ukraine and pursue business and economic ties with Russia, leaving Putin free to fight on. Before the recent G7 summit in Canada, Trump complained that Putin was not invited.

There are mixed signals from Moscow. After meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Malaysia on Thursday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he had conveyed Trump's "disappointment and frustration," but also that Russia had offered "a new and different approach." It is unclear whether that is a bid to win Trump back with a symbolic gesture or familiar obfuscation while troops keep fighting. Also unsettled is whether Trump's recent strikes on Iran, which he says obliterated its nuclear sites, have changed how he sees Putin.

The risks are real. Trump and Putin command the world's two largest nuclear arsenals, and the analysis warns of an escalation cycle driven by the credibility each has invested in the relationship. It finds no evidence that either wants a showdown. Part of Trump's base sympathizes with Putin's criticism of "wokeness," and another Republican faction wants resources turned toward China. Putin has often rattled nuclear sabers, and might again. What to watch: the Patriot deliveries, the sanctions bill, and whether Russia offers a gesture that tests Trump's resolve.