In the turbulent middle weeks of March 2023, as the collapse of SVB Financial and Signature Bank sent shockwaves through the financial system, analysts across Wall Street were forced to reckon with a market in flux — separating the resilient from the vulnerable, the overvalued from the overlooked. From banking giants to biotech startups, from reinsurers to airlines, the week's parade of upgrades and downgrades revealed something timeless: that crisis, for those with the patience to read it carefully, is also a map of opportunity. The market, however, proved characteristically reluctant to foll
Wells Fargo Upgrades JPMorgan as 'Goliath Is Winning' Amid Banking Turmoil
Goliath is winning in a crisis—size and diversification become shields.
Mark
Why would Wells Fargo upgrade JPMorgan when the whole banking sector is under pressure? Doesn't that seem contrarian?
Mimi
It's not contrarian so much as it's a flight-to-quality call. Wells Fargo is saying that in a crisis, the biggest, most diversified banks actually gain ground because smaller competitors face existential questions. JPMorgan can do offense—grab market share from weaker banks—and defense—weather the storm through diversification.
Luke
But the stock fell 4% that week anyway. So either the market didn't believe the thesis, or the thesis was right but the timing was wrong. We don't know which yet.
Mark
What about Intellia? That gene-editing approval sounds significant.
Mimi
It was. The FDA had been restrictive on gene-editing therapies, and a competitor had just gotten an IND hold. So when Intellia got approval for NTLA-2002, it removed a major overhang. BMO saw it as undervalued—the stock was down 19% relative to the biotech index despite the approval.
Luke
And it worked out—up 12.5% by week's end. But that's one week. We're looking at a stock that's still complex and risky. The approval is real, but we don't know yet if the therapy will work in humans or if it will be commercially viable.
Mark
The Reinsurance Group double upgrade is interesting. Citi went from Sell to Buy, skipping Neutral. That's a big move.
Mimi
Citi was saying that reinsurance companies have defensive characteristics in a crisis—no equity exposure, lower structured credit risk. They should outperform when investors are scared. But the stock went down anyway.
Luke
Which tells us something important: the analyst thesis might be sound, but it doesn't guarantee the stock moves. RGA may be defensive, but if the whole sector is selling off, it sells off too. The upgrade didn't protect it.
Mark
And Halozyme got cut. What was the concern there?
Mimi
Valuation. SVB Securities lowered long-term revenue and earnings forecasts, citing risk to one of the company's key products and more conservative royalty assumptions. The stock fell 20% that week.
Luke
That's a significant move. But we should note: SVB Securities is the research arm of SVB Financial, which collapsed that week. So there's a question about whether their analysis was sound or whether they were dealing with their own crisis and couldn't give full attention to their coverage.
Mark
That's a fair point. What about American Airlines?
Mimi
Wolfe upgraded it to Peer Perform based on execution. American has high short interest—10%—but it's been beating estimates and running clean operations. Wolfe thinks the market is underestimating the earnings power.
Luke
The stock barely moved on the upgrade and ended the week down 7%. So again, the analyst call might be right, but the market wasn't convinced. And we should be careful: Wolfe doesn't issue price targets for Peer Perform ratings, so there's less specificity about what the upside actually is.
O Pulso
- The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank created a vacuum of confidence in regional banking, and Wells Fargo moved quickly to argue that JPMorgan — with its scale and diversification — was built precisely for moments like this.
- Markets were unconvinced: JPMorgan's shares swung violently in premarket trading and ultimately fell more than 4% by week's end, suggesting fear was drowning out the 'Goliath is Winning' thesis.
- Biotech found a quiet bright spot as Intellia Therapeutics climbed 12.5% after BMO's upgrade, the market finally pricing in an IND approval for a potentially transformative single-dose gene-editing therapy.
- Citi's dramatic double-upgrade of Reinsurance Group of America — from Sell straight to Buy — went entirely unrewarded, with the stock sliding over 6% despite the firm's case for its defensive, low-exposure profile.
- Halozyme Therapeutics fell every single day of the week, losing 20% after SVB Securities slashed long-term revenue and earnings forecasts, citing royalty erosion and rising discount rates.
- American Airlines earned an upgrade on the strength of its operational execution and earnings beats, but high short interest and a brutal week for the sector kept the stock from holding its gains, closing down roughly 7%.
In the turbulent middle weeks of March 2023, as the collapse of SVB Financial and Signature Bank sent shockwaves through the financial system, analysts across Wall Street were forced to reckon with a market in flux — separating the resilient from the vulnerable, the overvalued from the overlooked. From banking giants to biotech startups, from reinsurers to airlines, the week's parade of upgrades and downgrades revealed something timeless: that crisis, for those with the patience to read it carefully, is also a map of opportunity. The market, however, proved characteristically reluctant to follow the analysts' lead, reminding observers that conviction and price action are rarely the same thing.
The mid-March banking crisis gave Wall Street's analyst community an urgent occasion to sort winners from losers. Wells Fargo led the week's most closely watched call, upgrading JPMorgan Chase to Overweight with a $155 price target and invoking what it called the 'Goliath is Winning' thesis — the idea that JPMorgan's scale and diversification made it a natural beneficiary as smaller rivals like SVB Financial and Signature Bank collapsed under existential pressure. The market was skeptical from the start. Shares whipsawed in premarket trading and ultimately shed more than 4% by Friday, closing at $125.81, as broader sector anxiety proved stronger than any single analyst's conviction.
Biotech offered a more rewarding story. BMO Capital Markets upgraded Intellia Therapeutics to Outperform on Tuesday, pointing to the company's recent IND approval for NTLA-2002, a gene-editing therapy capable of halting — and potentially reversing — a protein-related disease with a single dose. The approval had been slow to register with investors, leaving Intellia trading roughly 19% below peers. By week's end, the market caught up: the stock finished 12.5% higher at $39.84.
Reinsurance Group of America drew the week's most dramatic endorsement when Citi issued a rare double upgrade — from Sell directly to Buy — arguing that the company's life insurance and reinsurance businesses, free of equity market exposure and lightly allocated to structured securities, were ideally positioned for a turbulent environment. The stock declined anyway, closing the week down just over 6% at $121.97, a reminder that defensive logic does not always translate into defensive price action.
On the downgrade side, Halozyme Therapeutics bore the week's heaviest losses. SVB Securities cut the stock to Market Perform after trimming its 2030 revenue estimate by 19% and its earnings-per-share projection by 21%, citing royalty erosion and rising discount rates. Halozyme fell every day of the week, finishing Friday down 20% at $33.08.
American Airlines closed the week on a more ambiguous note. Wolfe Research upgraded the carrier to Peer Perform, crediting consistent operational execution and earnings beats that had pushed the firm's 2023 EPS estimate to $2.50 — some 17% above consensus. The stock briefly spiked on the news but could not hold the move, ending the week down roughly 7% at $13.98, weighed down by high short interest and a difficult stretch for the broader airline sector.
The banking sector's convulsions in mid-March sent tremors through equity markets, but one analyst saw opportunity in the wreckage. Wells Fargo upgraded JPMorgan Chase to Overweight on Monday, assigning a $155 price target and framing the move as a bet on what it called the "Goliath is Winning" thesis. The bank's reasoning was straightforward: while smaller competitors faced existential questions following the collapses of SVB Financial and Signature Bank, JPMorgan possessed both the scale to capture market share and the diversification to weather the storm. The market's initial reaction was skeptical. Shares opened volatile, swinging between $130 and $136 in premarket trading before selling off 1.8% once the regular session began. By week's end, JPMorgan had fallen more than 4% to close at $125.81, suggesting investors remained unconvinced that size alone could insulate the bank from broader sector anxiety.
Elsewhere in the market, biotech and insurance names drew competing calls. BMO Capital Markets upgraded Intellia Therapeutics to Outperform with a $57 price target on Tuesday, citing the company's recent IND approval for NTLA-2002, a gene-editing therapy designed to halt and potentially reverse a protein-related disease with a single dose. BMO noted that the approval removed a significant overhang that had weighed on the stock since the FDA issued restrictive guidance on gene-editing therapies and a competitor faced an IND hold. Despite trading roughly 19% lower than peers since the approval, Intellia climbed 4.75% from Monday's close by Tuesday's close and finished the week up 12.5% at $39.84, suggesting the market eventually recognized the catalyst's value.
Reinsurance Group of America received a more dramatic endorsement when Citi issued a double upgrade on Wednesday, moving the stock from Sell directly to Buy with a $158 price target. The rationale centered on the defensive characteristics of life insurance and reinsurance businesses during periods of financial stress. Citi emphasized that RGA carried no equity market exposure and held lower allocations to structured securities than peers, positioning it to outperform as investors sought shelter from broader market turbulence. The stock, however, ignored the upgrade and drifted lower throughout the week, closing down just over 6% at $121.97.
Valuation concerns dominated the downgrade side of the ledger. SVB Securities cut Halozyme Therapeutics to Market Perform on Thursday, citing long-term forecasts that reflected heightened risk to one of its key products and more conservative royalty assumptions. The firm's 2030 revenue estimate fell 19% to $1.7 billion, while earnings per share projections dropped 21% to $8.53. SVB Securities attributed the more cautious stance to rising discount rates and the prospect of long-term royalty erosion. Halozyme responded by trading lower every single day of the week, ultimately closing Friday down 20% at $33.08.
American Airlines closed the week with an upgrade to Peer Perform from Wolfe Research, a call that hinged on the carrier's recent operational execution despite carrying a notably high short interest of 10%. Wolfe noted that American had been consistently beating estimates in recent quarters while maintaining clean operations, leading the firm to project 2023 earnings per share of $2.50, some 17% above consensus expectations. The stock spiked $0.45 on the upgrade news to $14.49 but could not sustain the move, closing Friday at $13.98 and ending the week down roughly 7%. Wolfe's data showed American had underperformed its airline index peers by 15 percentage points over the prior six trading days, even as it outpaced the broader airline sector year-to-date.
Citações Notáveis
JPM epitomizes our theme of 'Goliath is Winning', which should benefit both offense (market share gains) and defense (more diversified) in these less certain times.— Wells Fargo analyst note
AAL remains heavily shorted with a 10% short interest, but it's been consistently executing and making/beating estimates in recent quarters while running a fairly clean operation.— Wolfe Research on American Airlines
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