As Nobel season opens in Stockholm, the scientific world turns its attention to a discovery that began in laboratory obscurity and ended in the medicine cabinets of millions: the identification of GLP-1, the intestinal hormone that tells the body it is satisfied. The prize, to be announced Monday at 11:30 am Central European Time, invites us to consider how patient, foundational research into the body's own language of hunger and fullness can, across decades, reshape the way humanity understands and treats itself. Three scientists — Daniel Drucker, Jens Juul Holst, and Svetlana Mojsov — stand
Weight-loss drug research favored for Nobel medicine prize as 2026 award season opens
The research into appetite hormones made possible drugs now prescribed to millions
Mark
So GLP-1 is the favorite for medicine. But that's a hormone, not a person. How does the Nobel work when the discovery spans decades and multiple scientists?
Mimi
The committee can award to individuals or to the body of work. Pendlebury is saying the research into GLP-1 is so foundational and so widely cited that it's the most likely field to be recognized. But yes, the actual laureates would be specific scientists—probably Drucker, Holst, or Mojsov, or some combination.
Luke
Right, but here's what we don't know: the committee hasn't signaled anything. Pendlebury's firm uses citation metrics, which is a proxy for impact, not a crystal ball. Other fields—stem cells, imaging, immunology—are also plausible. The source lists them all as real possibilities.
Mark
Fair. So what makes GLP-1 stand out to Pendlebury?
Mimi
Clinical impact. Ozempic and Mounjaro are prescribed to millions of people worldwide. The hormone research made those drugs possible. That's not theoretical—it's changed how medicine treats obesity and diabetes.
Luke
But we should note: Pendlebury works for Clarivate, which sells predictive analytics. His opinion is informed, but it's also his business to make predictions sound credible. He's not inside the committee.
Mark
What about the peace prize? That sounds more fraught.
Mimi
It is. Last year's award to Machado was controversial, and Trump tried to lobby for it. This year the committee seems to want to avoid that kind of storm. They're looking at organizations and activists doing concrete work—protecting journalists, helping children, running emergency response in Sudan.
Luke
But again, we're hearing speculation from outside observers. The committee secretary said they're used to lobbying and pressure, which is honest, but it doesn't tell us what they're actually thinking.
Mark
So we really won't know until Monday.
Mimi
Not until the announcements. That's the whole point of the Nobel season—the suspense, the reveal.
El Pulso
- GLP-1 research has vaulted to the top of Nobel predictions because drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro, built on its discovery, have transformed obesity treatment at a scale rarely seen in modern medicine.
- The Nobel committee faces a crowded field of contenders — from stem cell skin regeneration to optical imaging to immune cell adhesion — each representing decades of work with profound consequences for human health.
- Beyond medicine, the peace prize is generating the sharpest tension, with the committee navigating open political lobbying and the memory of last year's controversial award, even as Ukrainian children's rights and Sudan's volunteer aid networks press urgent moral claims.
- The literature prize carries its own suspense, with speculation that the Swedish Academy may turn toward a woman writer from Latin America after last year's honor to a Hungarian man.
- The full week of announcements — medicine through economics — unfolds as a kind of annual accounting of where human knowledge has most consequentially moved, and who carried it there.
As Nobel season opens in Stockholm, the scientific world turns its attention to a discovery that began in laboratory obscurity and ended in the medicine cabinets of millions: the identification of GLP-1, the intestinal hormone that tells the body it is satisfied. The prize, to be announced Monday at 11:30 am Central European Time, invites us to consider how patient, foundational research into the body's own language of hunger and fullness can, across decades, reshape the way humanity understands and treats itself. Three scientists — Daniel Drucker, Jens Juul Holst, and Svetlana Mojsov — stand at the center of this reckoning, their names carried forward by the weight of clinical impact felt on every continent.
The Nobel Prize season opens Monday with the medicine award, and those who track scientific momentum say the leading contender is the decades-long investigation into appetite-regulating hormones — work that made possible drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro, now prescribed to millions worldwide.
Several research pathways could earn recognition: the study of the microbiome, the discovery of leptin and ghrelin, or the identification of glucagon-like peptide 1 — GLP-1 — a hormone released after eating that signals fullness. The drugs reshaping weight-loss treatment work by mimicking GLP-1's action. David Pendlebury of Clarivate, which predicts Nobel winners by measuring citation patterns, placed GLP-1 first. 'I would put GLP-1 at the top of the list, just because of its enormous worldwide clinical impact,' he said. Three names recur in speculation: Canadian endocrinologist Daniel Drucker, Danish physician Jens Juul Holst, and Yugoslav-American chemist Svetlana Mojsov.
If the committee looks elsewhere, strong alternatives exist. Stem cell research into skin regeneration, led by Elaine Fuchs and Fiona Watt, could be honored, as could optical coherence tomography — an imaging technique that creates detailed pictures of biological tissue without invasive procedures. Immunologist Timothy Springer's identification of adhesion receptors, which guide immune cells to sites of infection, represents another possibility, alongside breast cancer research and DNA sequencing work tied to the coronavirus response.
The peace prize, announced Friday in Oslo, is drawing the most scrutiny. Last year's award to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado — which President Trump lobbied for and ultimately received her medal — cast a long shadow. This year, a joint prize to Save the Children and Ukrainian children's rights activist Mykola Kuleba, Sudan's volunteer Emergency Response Rooms, or the Committee to Protect Journalists — after the deadliest year on record for journalists killed in the field — are all in consideration. The Nobel committee's secretary acknowledged the pressure openly, noting the committee is 'very used to' lobbying and attempts at influence.
The Nobel Prize season opens Monday with the medicine award, and the smart money is on research into the hormones that control hunger and fullness. The announcement comes at 11:30 am Central European Time, and observers who track citation patterns and scientific momentum say the field most likely to be honored is the decades-long investigation into appetite regulation—work that eventually made possible drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro, which have reshaped weight-loss treatment worldwide.
The research pathways that could earn recognition are several. There is the study of the microbiome and its role in metabolism. There is the discovery of leptin and ghrelin, the hormones that signal satiety and hunger to the brain. And there is the identification of glucagon-like peptide 1, or GLP-1, a hormone released by the intestine after eating that tells the body it is full. The drugs now prescribed to millions of people work by mimicking GLP-1's action. David Pendlebury, who leads research analysis at Clarivate, a data firm that predicts Nobel winners by measuring how often scientists' work is cited by other researchers, said any of these discoveries could plausibly win. But he placed GLP-1 at the top of his list. "I would put GLP-1 at the top of the list, just because of its enormous worldwide clinical impact," Pendlebury said. The field has many contributors, though three names appear repeatedly in Nobel speculation: Daniel Drucker, a Canadian endocrinologist; Jens Juul Holst, a Danish physician; and Svetlana Mojsov, a chemist born in Yugoslavia who is now American.
If the Nobel committee moves in a different direction, other fields are waiting. Stem cell research into skin regeneration and wound healing could be recognized, with American cell biologist Elaine Fuchs and British researcher Fiona Watt identified as leaders in that work. A newer imaging technique called optical coherence tomography—which uses reflected light to create detailed cross-sectional pictures of biological tissue, especially the retina—could also be honored for its role in helping doctors detect and monitor disease without invasive procedures. Immunology presents another possibility: the work of Timothy Springer, an American immunologist who identified adhesion receptors on immune cells. These molecular grips allow immune cells to attach to blood vessels, move into tissues, and reach infections. They are central to how the body directs its defenses and are targets for treating inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Research into breast cancer or the DNA sequencing work that helped combat coronavirus could also receive the prize.
The medicine announcement begins a week of daily revelations. Physics comes Tuesday, chemistry Wednesday. The literature prize on Thursday has prompted speculation that the Swedish Academy might follow last year's award to Hungarian writer Laszlo Krasznahorkai with a woman author, possibly from Latin America. Argentine writer Samanta Schweblin, 48, is mentioned as a possibility, as are Antiguan-American Jamaica Kincaid, Chinese writer Can Xue, Australians Gerald Murnane and Alexis Wright, American Thomas Pynchon, and Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza.
The peace prize, announced Friday in Oslo, is drawing the most intense attention. Last year's award to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado sparked controversy, and President Donald Trump lobbied heavily for it—Machado eventually gave him her medal. The committee is aware the incoming administration will be watching. Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Nobel committee, acknowledged the pressure. "There's always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee," he told AFP. "We're very used to that." Possible laureates this year include a joint prize to Save the Children and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children's rights activist working to return Ukrainian children illegally taken to Russia from occupied territories. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a network of volunteers risking their lives to aid people caught between war and hunger, is also in consideration. The Committee to Protect Journalists could be honored after 2025 saw the deadliest year on record for journalists killed in the line of work. The economics prize closes the season on October 12.
Citas Notables
I would put GLP-1 at the top of the list, just because of its enormous worldwide clinical impact.— David Pendlebury, Clarivate research analysis
There's always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee. We're very used to that.— Kristian Berg Harpviken, Nobel committee secretary
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