White hot demand coming out of China
As 2020 draws to a close, Tesla stands at the edge of a symbolic threshold — the 500,000-vehicle annual delivery target it set for itself when the year began. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives believes the company will cross it, projecting fourth-quarter deliveries of 190,000 to 200,000 vehicles against a Wall Street consensus of 174,000, carried by demand surging from Shanghai to Stuttgart to San Jose. The story is not merely about one quarter's numbers, but about whether an electric future is arriving faster than the market has dared to believe.
- Tesla's self-imposed 500,000-vehicle annual target — once dismissed as fantasy — is now within reach, hinging on a single quarter's delivery count.
- A 16,000-to-26,000-vehicle gap separates Ives's projection from Wall Street's consensus, a spread large enough to move markets and reshape narratives.
- China's 'white hot' demand and late-quarter surges in Europe and the U.S. are driving the bullish case, but European logistics bottlenecks threaten to shave critical deliveries in the final days.
- Ives holds a Neutral rating on Tesla stock despite his optimism, signaling that strong fundamentals and a rich valuation can coexist uncomfortably — and that much of the good news may already be priced in.
- Tesla shares climbed 2.6% to $683.42 on Wednesday, with the market holding its breath for the official delivery report expected within days.
Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities is projecting that Tesla will report fourth-quarter deliveries of 190,000 to 200,000 vehicles — well above the Wall Street consensus of 174,000 — when the company releases its numbers in the coming days. If he is right, Tesla will have delivered 500,000 vehicles in 2020, a target that looked improbable as recently as last spring and that would stand as proof the company can scale production to meet demand rather than the reverse.
Three forces are behind Ives's optimism: accelerating demand from Tesla's Shanghai factory, a late-quarter surge in Europe, and a hard push to close out the year in the United States. China figures most prominently in his longer view — he expects the country to account for 40 percent of global EV deliveries by 2022, making it the engine of the industry's transformation. Logistics challenges in Europe remain a genuine risk, capable of turning days of delay into missed targets, but Ives treats them as friction rather than a fundamental obstacle.
The broader canvas Ives paints is one of a market in transition. Electric vehicles represent roughly 3 percent of global auto sales today; he sees that reaching 10 percent by 2025, with Tesla positioned as the dominant beneficiary. A Biden administration, he notes, could accelerate the shift through expanded EV tax credits — a tailwind for Tesla, General Motors, and newer entrants like Fisker alike.
Yet Ives rates Tesla stock Neutral, not Buy, with a $715 price target — a telling restraint. His message seems to be that the demand story is real and the fundamentals are sound, but that Tesla's valuation, already elevated after its S&P 500 inclusion earlier in December, leaves little room for surprise. The market, for now, is watching and waiting for the delivery figures that will settle the question.
Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, is betting that Tesla will blow past Wall Street's expectations when the electric-vehicle maker reports its fourth-quarter delivery numbers in the coming days. Where the consensus forecast sits at 174,000 vehicles delivered, Ives believes Tesla will land somewhere between 190,000 and 200,000—a gap wide enough to matter, and one that would push the company across a symbolic finish line it set for itself at the start of the year.
The math is straightforward but consequential. If Ives is right, Tesla hits its 500,000-vehicle annual delivery target, a goal that seemed out of reach as recently as late spring. That milestone matters less as a number than as proof of concept: that Tesla can scale production and logistics at a pace that keeps pace with demand, not the other way around. For a company that spent years fighting skeptics who said it would never be a real automaker, hitting that target is vindication.
Ives points to three currents pushing Tesla toward the higher end of his range. China, where Tesla operates its Shanghai factory, is showing accelerating demand. Europe is experiencing a late-quarter surge. And in the United States, the company is pushing hard to close out the year. These aren't separate stories—they're part of a single narrative about where electric vehicles are heading globally. China, in particular, looms large in Ives's thinking. He sees the region as the engine of EV growth, expecting it to account for 40 percent of global electric-vehicle deliveries by 2022. If that trajectory holds, and if Tesla maintains its position as the dominant player in that market, the implications for the company's growth extend well beyond this quarter.
There are complications. Logistics bottlenecks in Europe could crimp deliveries in the final days of the quarter. The supply chain is fragile, and a delay of days can mean the difference between hitting a target and missing it. But Ives seems to view these as speed bumps rather than roadblocks. The underlying demand, he argues, remains robust—what he describes as "white hot" coming out of China.
Looking further ahead, Ives sketches a market transformation. Electric vehicles currently represent about 3 percent of total auto sales. By 2025, he expects that figure to reach 10 percent. Tesla, as the clear leader in the category, stands to benefit disproportionately. A change in presidential administration could accelerate the shift: Ives suggests that a Biden administration might expand tax credits for electric-vehicle purchases, a policy lever that would help Tesla and other EV makers like General Motors and Fisker.
There's a tension in Ives's positioning worth noting. He rates Tesla stock as Neutral, not Buy, despite his bullish delivery forecast and his optimistic long-term outlook. His price target of $715 implies some upside from where the stock was trading, but it's a measured call. This reflects a broader caution among analysts: Tesla was added to the S&P 500 earlier in December, and some analysts used that milestone as a moment to take profits, suggesting that much of the company's growth story was already priced in. Ives seems to be saying: the fundamentals are strong, the demand is real, but the valuation is already rich.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Tesla stock was up 2.6 percent to $683.42. The market will have its final word when the company reports its actual delivery figures. But Ives has already made his bet: Tesla will deliver more than Wall Street thinks, and the company's path to a million vehicles globally by 2022—rather than 2023—is coming into focus.
Notable Quotes
This would enable Tesla to achieve its 500k delivery number for the year, which was not even on the map for the Street going back to the late spring/early summer timeframe.— Daniel Ives, Wedbush analyst
The theme of the Tesla story and overall global EV demand continues to be around white hot demand coming out of China.— Daniel Ives, Wedbush analyst
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does this analyst think Tesla will beat estimates by so much? Is it just optimism, or is there something concrete he's seeing?
He's pointing to real momentum in specific markets. China is accelerating, Europe is pushing hard at year-end, and the U.S. is doing the same. These aren't guesses—they're observable demand patterns. The question is whether Tesla can actually deliver the cars in time.
But he mentions logistics problems in Europe. Doesn't that undercut his whole thesis?
Not really. He's treating those as temporary friction, not a structural problem. The demand is there. It's a matter of whether the cars get shipped in December or slip into January. For his forecast to work, he needs most of them to land before year-end.
What strikes you most about his longer-term view?
That he's not just talking about Tesla beating this quarter. He's describing a market shift—EVs going from 3 percent to 10 percent of sales by 2025, with China becoming the dominant region. If that's true, Tesla's growth runway is much longer than people think.
Yet he rates the stock Neutral, not Buy. That seems contradictory.
It's not. He's saying the story is right, but the price already reflects it. Tesla just got added to the S&P 500. A lot of money already moved in. There's upside in his price target, but it's not explosive. The fundamentals are strong; the valuation is already generous.
So what happens if he's wrong and Tesla misses?
Then the narrative cracks. The 500,000-vehicle target becomes 2021 news instead of 2020 news. It matters symbolically. And if demand in China or Europe isn't as strong as he thinks, it raises questions about whether the EV boom is as broad as everyone believes.