Wall Street Ends Higher After Shaking Off Wobbly Start, S&P 500 Gains 1.2%

A rally built on expectation, not yet on results
Thursday's rebound came ahead of Big Tech earnings, which were reported only after the close.
Mark

So the market bounced back. Is the scare over?

Mimi

Not really. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% Thursday, but that's less than half of Wednesday's 3.5% loss, and the major indexes are still headed for weekly losses.

Mark

What lifted it?

Mimi

Data and anticipation. GDP grew at a record 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter, and jobless claims fell to 751,000, better than forecast. Tech also rallied ahead of Facebook, Amazon and Google parent earnings.

Luke

Careful with the GDP number, though. It's a government estimate, and it follows a 31.4% annualized contraction. It describes a rebound from a hole, not a return to where things were.

Mark

And claims at 751,000?

Mimi

Down from 791,000, but still very high compared with before COVID-19.

Luke

Also, the tech earnings beats came after the close. Thursday's rally was based on expectation, not results. We don't know from this story how stocks reacted afterward.

Mark

Why does stimulus keep coming up?

Mimi

Supplemental benefits expired in the summer, and Pelosi's letter to Mnuchin shows talks are unresolved. Hopes are fading, per the report.

Luke

Right, and fading hopes is a characterization of sentiment, not a measured fact. What's concrete is that no deal has been delivered.

Mark

So what's the real risk?

Mimi

The virus. Rising cases could keep customers away from businesses even without full lockdowns.

  • The S&P 500 fell 3.5% on Wednesday, its worst day in over four months, and investors spent the next session wondering whether the slide would deepen.
  • Thursday opened in the red, but a late turnaround lifted the index 1.2%, recovering less than half of the previous day's losses.
  • Record third-quarter GDP growth of 33.1% and jobless claims dropping to 751,000 gave traders firm reasons to steady their nerves.
  • Big Tech earnings from Facebook, Amazon and Google's parent were due after the bell, and Microsoft's 5% slump had shown how little room for error remained.
  • Coronavirus cases are climbing, and with stimulus talks in Washington stalled, the rebound's trajectory remains uncertain and heavily dependent on the pandemic.

On a Thursday in late October 2020, Wall Street recovered most of a sharp fall, as the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 3,310.11 after the previous day's worst drop in more than four months. The rebound rested on two signs that the economy was healing faster than feared: a record surge in third-quarter growth and fewer Americans filing for unemployment. Yet the calm was provisional, since the pandemic was still spreading, aid from Washington had stalled, and the largest technology companies carried expectations that were hard to meet. It was a moment of cautious relief in a longer story where the virus, not the market, would decide what came next.

Thursday's session on Wall Street began poorly, with the S&P 500 sliding in early trading as the market continued to absorb the shock of the day before, when the index had dropped 3.5% in its worst fall in more than four months. By the close, however, stocks had turned sharply upward. The S&P 500 finished up 1.2% at 3,310.11, and the Dow and Nasdaq also gained, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading at 1.6%. Even after the rally, the major indexes were still set for weekly losses.

Two pieces of economic news helped steady nerves. The government reported that the economy grew at a record annualized rate of 33.1% in the July-September quarter, recovering from a historic collapse earlier in the year. Jobless claims also eased to 751,000, better than forecast, though still very high by pre-pandemic standards.

Technology drove the recovery as investors looked ahead to earnings from Facebook, Amazon and Google's parent. Expectations for these companies had been high, since they had largely thrived during the pandemic. Microsoft's stock had fallen despite strong results, a reminder that good numbers were no longer enough to guarantee gains. Overall, earnings season had proven better than feared, though profits were still expected to decline.

Caution remained. Fear gauges had spiked, oil prices kept falling on demand worries, and European markets stalled after the European Central Bank signaled more stimulus. Coronavirus cases were rising in the United States, raising the risk that customers would stay away even without new lockdowns. Meanwhile, Washington had yet to deliver new aid, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi was still waiting on answers from the Treasury. The recovery looked real but fragile, with its next steps far from certain.

Thursday's session on Wall Street opened badly. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% in the early going, extending the pain from a day earlier, when the index had fallen 3.5% in its worst drop in more than four months. By the close, it had turned around and finished up 1.2%, gaining 39.08 points to end at 3,310.11. That was less than half of what it had lost on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 139.16 points, or 0.5%, to 26,659.11. It had been down 229 points at its worst and up as much as 371 points at its best. The Nasdaq composite, heavy with technology stocks, did better than the rest of the market, climbing 180.72 points, or 1.6%, to 11,185.59. Even so, all the major indexes remain on track for weekly losses, including a second straight weekly decline for the S&P 500.

Two pieces of economic data helped steady traders. The government estimated that the economy grew at a record annual rate of 33.1% from July through September, following a collapse in the April-June quarter, when it shrank at an annualized rate of 31.4%. Separately, the number of U.S. workers applying for unemployment benefits eased last week to 751,000, down from 791,000 the week before and better than economists had forecast. That figure remains very high compared with the period before COVID-19.

Technology led the rebound, ahead of quarterly reports from Facebook, Amazon and Google's parent company. All three reported results after the close of regular trading that topped Wall Street's expectations. Willie Delwiche, an investment strategist at Baird, said the leadership had returned to the mega-cap names, in anticipation of good earnings that evening from a whole swath of companies.

Expectations for Big Tech have been high, since these companies have largely cruised through the pandemic and investors have bid up their shares on the belief that work-from-home and other accelerated trends will hold. Microsoft showed the risk on Wednesday: its stock slumped 5% even though it reported stronger profit and revenue than Wall Street expected. Analysts have noted that stocks are not getting their usual boost from earnings beats. Still, the reporting season has been better than feared. According to FactSet, earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are on track to fall about 13% from a year earlier, a milder drop than the nearly 21% decline forecast at the start of October.

Caution lingers. A measure of investor fear in the U.S. stock market touched its highest level since June before receding on Thursday, and oil prices kept falling on worries about demand from a virus-weakened economy. In Europe, stocks first rose but levelled off after the head of the European Central Bank said there is little doubt it will deliver more stimulus in December. They were recovering from a sharp slide Wednesday, when France and Germany announced new business restrictions to slow the virus.

Coronavirus cases are also rising in the United States. Even if the sweeping lockdowns of earlier this year don't return, the worry is that a worsening pandemic could keep customers away and cut into profits. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said the future still looks cloudy and that the virus will determine consumer behaviour.

Meanwhile, Washington has not delivered more support. Economists and investors have asked for it since the summer, when supplemental benefits for laid-off workers and other stimulus approved earlier in the year expired. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday listing topics she is still waiting to hear back on, including benefits for laid-off workers and coronavirus testing. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0.83% from 0.79% late Wednesday. With cases climbing and stimulus talks stalled, the recovery's next steps look uncertain.

The future still looks cloudy. What happens with the virus will definitely determine consumers' behaviour.
— Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor Alliance
Leadership today is back to the mega-cap names, in anticipation of good earnings that evening.
— Willie Delwiche, investment strategist, Baird (paraphrased)
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