Voters Rebuke Netanyahu, but Exit Polls Point to No Clear Winner in Israeli Election

In the early hours of Wednesday, supporters packed into Gadi Eisenkot's party headquarters jumped and chanted his name as Israeli television stations broadcast their exit polls. Across town, at Benjamin Netanyahu's headquarters, the room was filled mostly with journalists. The few supporters who showed up draped themselves in flags bearing his face and kissed posters of him.

The polls, released by major Israeli TV stations, suggested that Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's bloc each won about 51 seats in the 120-seat parliament, with Arab-led parties taking about 18. Netanyahu's Likud could still emerge as the single largest party. But voters, disappointed in his alliance with the far right and angry over draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, appeared to have shrunk his bloc's majority and put his return to power in jeopardy. His current coalition peaked at 68 members before it began to disintegrate over the past year. Netanyahu had made no public statement hours after the polls came out.

Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and they may differ from the polls. Turnout was the highest since 1999: the Central Elections Committee reported more than 77% of eligible voters cast ballots, out of over 7 million eligible, with tens of thousands reportedly arriving from overseas.

Eisenkot, a former military chief, said the numbers showed a "lack of confidence" in Netanyahu. In a speech focused on national unity, he promised to form a government and "a new era — an era of hope." He said the people had decided in favor of change. He also warned Netanyahu, now a caretaker prime minister, not to "dare use Israel's security for your political needs," an apparent reference to reports that Netanyahu considered striking Iran in the sensitive days before the vote.

The arithmetic is hard. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, so coalitions are the rule. The easiest route for Eisenkot would be a partnership with the Arab parties, but that could prove politically difficult and alienate other opposition factions. Netanyahu and his allies are likely to portray any such deal as illegitimate, even treasonous. Netanyahu had warned before the vote that the Arab parties were getting "truly massive support" and turning out in "unprecedented numbers." Minority governments are possible, but they depend on outside parties to pass legislation.

The president will ask the leader with the best chance of building a coalition, usually the head of the largest party, to try. If Likud finishes first, Netanyahu could claim that opportunity. If no one succeeds, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule, and the first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack. The wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the West Bank, have drawn worldwide outrage, strained ties with close allies and fueled antisemitism. American public support has plummeted, European and other partners have imposed sanctions, and Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies.

Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman who guided the country after its darkest hour and defends its security and Jewish identity. Critics say that, with a corruption trial pending, he prolonged the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons, undermined the judiciary and abetted the draft exemptions. "The present government is driving the country into the ground," said Jerusalem voter Angela Bengur. In Tel Aviv's Jaffa neighborhood, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about "who serves and who evades service." Eisenkot's backers point to his security record and to the loss of his son and two nephews in Gaza. Parties likely to back him have pledged to restore Israel's standing abroad, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.

In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7 and former hostages held a moment of silence during voting. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed. Weeks of negotiations now lie ahead, with final tallies the first thing to watch.