The challenges are immense, and nearly half of Chile did not vote for me
En noviembre, Chile celebró una primera vuelta presidencial que desafió los pronósticos y reveló un país más fragmentado de lo que nadie anticipaba. Jeannette Jara, candidata de la izquierda, avanzó al ballotage del 14 de diciembre con apenas el 26,8% de los votos, seguida de cerca por el ultraderechista José Antonio Kast con el 23,9%, mientras un tercero populista acaparó casi una quinta parte del electorado. En esta encrucijada, Chile no solo elige entre dos candidatos, sino que negocia con sus propias fracturas: la desconfianza hacia las instituciones, el miedo al crimen y la migración, y el agotamiento de una política que ya no reconoce como suya.
- La participación histórica del 85% no trajo claridad, sino una victoria izquierdista tan estrecha que sonó más a advertencia que a mandato.
- Kast, que llegaba debilitado en las encuestas, consolidó el voto ultraderechista y ganó escaños parlamentarios que podrían convertirse en palanca de gobierno si gana el 14 de diciembre.
- Franco Parisi, el populista que hizo campaña desde el extranjero prometiendo festivales de tuning y eliminar el IVA a los medicamentos, se quedó con el 19,5% y se niega a comprometer su respaldo a ninguno de los dos finalistas.
- Jara debe remontar una pendiente empinada: el gobierno de Boric roza el 30% de aprobación, y los temas que dominan el debate —crimen, migración, economía— favorecen sistemáticamente a la derecha.
- El resultado expone un electorado que no confía ni en la izquierda institucional ni en el conservadurismo tradicional, y cuya decisión final podría depender menos de propuestas que de un rechazo difuso a todo lo establecido.
Chile celebró su primera vuelta presidencial en noviembre con una participación del 85%, la más alta de su historia reciente, pero los resultados sorprendieron a propios y extraños. Jeannette Jara, exministra del Trabajo de Gabriel Boric y primera candidata comunista de la coalición progresista, quedó primera con el 26,8% de los votos. José Antonio Kast, abogado ultraderechista en su tercera candidatura presidencial, la siguió con el 23,9%. Ninguno alcanzó la mayoría absoluta, por lo que se enfrentarán en un ballotage el 14 de diciembre.
Para Jara, el primer lugar sabe agridulce. Su margen fue inferior al que auguraban las encuestas, y el gobierno del que forma parte arrastra una aprobación inferior al 30%. Además, Chile carga con un patrón que ella necesita romper: desde 2006, ningún presidente ha logrado que su sucesor provenga del mismo campo político. Los temas que dominan la conversación pública —crimen, migración irregular, economía— benefician estructuralmente a la derecha.
Kast, en cambio, llegó a la noche electoral más fuerte de lo que los sondeos sugerían. Concentró el voto ultraderechista con una campaña centrada en seguridad y migración, evitando deliberadamente sus posiciones más controvertidas sobre libertades individuales o su defensa de la dictadura militar. Su partido republicano también cosechó escaños en el Congreso, lo que le daría respaldo legislativo si llega a La Moneda. En su discurso de la noche, declaró que «Chile ha despertado».
El factor decisivo será Franco Parisi, el economista populista que con el lema «ni ultraderecha ni comunismo» se quedó con el 19,5% del voto. Su campaña, conducida en gran parte desde el extranjero y a través de redes sociales, mezcló propuestas económicas heterodoxas con promesas de espectáculo. Ganó con claridad en las provincias mineras del norte. Cuando le preguntaron a quién apoyaría en la segunda vuelta, Parisi se negó a comprometerse: dijo que ambos candidatos tendrían que «ganarse» a sus votantes. Los analistas ven en su resultado una señal más profunda: el rechazo a la política institucional como tal. Lo que ocurra entre ahora y el 14 de diciembre dependerá, en buena medida, de si esos votantes deciden inclinarse o simplemente quedarse en casa.
Chile held its presidential election on a Sunday in November, and the results defied the pollsters' predictions in ways both reassuring and alarming. The turnout was extraordinary—85 percent of eligible voters showed up, the highest participation rate the country has seen. Yet the outcome was far tighter than anyone expected, and it has set the stage for a December runoff that will determine whether the left holds power or the far right seizes it.
Jeannette Jara, the leftist candidate and former labor minister under Gabriel Boric, finished first with 26.8 percent of the vote—a margin of just over 340,000 votes ahead of José Antonio Kast, the far-right lawyer and three-time presidential contender who took 23.9 percent. Neither reached the 50-percent threshold required to win outright, so they will face each other again on December 14. For Jara, the victory felt hollow. She had been the unified standard-bearer of the left, the first Communist Party member to represent the progressive coalition in a presidential race, yet her margin was smaller than the polls had suggested. In her election night speech, she acknowledged the weight of what lay ahead, telling supporters that "the challenges are immense" and promising to listen to the nearly half of Chileans who voted for neither her nor Kast. She is 51 years old, relatively unknown before joining Boric's government, where she helped shepherd through key reforms on pensions and the minimum wage.
Jara faces a steep climb. The Boric government's approval rating hovers below 30 percent, and she must somehow reverse what Chileans call the "pendulum"—a pattern since 2006 in which no sitting president has handed power to a successor from the same political camp. The public conversation is dominated by three issues that play directly into the right's hands: migration, the economy, and crime. Even if every voter who supported Franco Parisi, the populist who finished third, switched to Jara in the runoff, analysts say she would still fall short. One political scientist at Diego Portales University told reporters that Jara faces "a very uphill scenario."
Kast, meanwhile, has reason to feel emboldened despite finishing second. The pre-election polls had shown him slipping, even trailing a more radical libertarian competitor. But he consolidated the far-right vote through a single-minded campaign focused on crime and irregular migration, carefully avoiding public discussion of his ultraconservative views on individual freedoms or his defense of Chile's military dictatorship. He is an admirer of Donald Trump and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele. On election night, he claimed that "Chile has awakened," borrowing language from the massive 2019 protests that had shaken the country. He also secured the backing of the more radical libertarian candidate and the traditional right's representative, a former mayor named Evelyn Matthei, whose fifth-place finish reflected a broader pattern seen in other democracies: the collapse of centrist conservatism in the face of populist ultras. "Third time's the charm," Kast declared. Perhaps more significantly, his Republican Party made substantial gains in the simultaneous parliamentary elections for the Chamber of Deputies and Senate, potentially giving him the legislative support needed to govern if he wins the runoff.
The real wildcard is Parisi. The economist and leader of the People's Party surprised everyone in 2021 by finishing third with 13 percent, running almost entirely from abroad via social media. This time he surpassed expectations again, taking 19.5 percent and holding onto third place. His campaign slogan—"Neither far-right nor communist"—captured a particular strain of Chilean frustration, and his platform mixed populist economics (eliminating sales tax on medicine) with carnival-like spectacle (he promised to organize a massive car-tuning festival if elected). He won decisively in the mining provinces of the north. When asked about the runoff, Parisi refused to commit. He said he would not "sign blank checks" for anyone and that both Jara and Kast would have to "earn" his voters' support. Analysts see in Parisi's surge a deeper signal: profound rejection of institutional politics itself. He was underrepresented in the polls precisely because he appeals to voters who distrust traditional political machinery. Winning his endorsement, one scholar from the University of Chile suggested, will not be easy for either finalist.
What unfolds between now and December 14 will hinge on whether Jara can reframe the conversation away from security and migration, whether Kast can consolidate his parliamentary advantage into a governing coalition, and whether Parisi's voters—who seem to want neither establishment left nor establishment right—will break decisively in one direction or stay home. The election has exposed a country more fractured and volatile than the polls suggested, with traditional politics losing its grip and voters hungry for something that does not yet have a clear name.
Notable Quotes
The challenges are immense, and from tomorrow I will listen to nearly half of Chileans who voted for neither me nor Kast— Jeannette Jara, leftist candidate
I will not sign blank checks to anyone. Both candidates will have to earn my voters' support— Franco Parisi, populist third-place finisher
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Jara's victory feel hollow if she won the first round?
Because she won by less than the polls predicted, and she's now facing an uphill battle. The government she represents has only 30 percent approval. She needs to convince people worried about crime and migration—issues that naturally favor the right—to vote for her in December. Even if she got every vote Parisi received, she might still lose.
What's the "pendulum" she has to reverse?
Since 2006, no sitting president in Chile has successfully handed power to a successor from the same political side. It's a pattern. The left governed, then the right took over, then the left again. Jara is trying to break that cycle, but the odds are against her.
Why is Kast feeling confident despite finishing second?
He consolidated the far-right vote and made substantial gains in parliament. If he wins the runoff, he'll have legislative support to actually govern. He also secured endorsements from the more radical libertarian candidate and from the traditional right's representative, even though she finished fifth. The traditional conservatives are collapsing, and he's absorbing their voters.
Who is Parisi, and why does he matter so much?
He's an economist running on an anti-establishment platform—"neither far-right nor communist." He finished third with nearly 20 percent, and he's refusing to commit his voters to either finalist. Both Jara and Kast need him, but he's signaling that he won't be taken for granted. He represents a real hunger for something outside traditional politics.
What does the 85 percent turnout tell us?
It shows Chileans are engaged and concerned about the direction of the country. But it also shows they're divided. The high turnout didn't produce a clear winner—it produced a fragmented result where the top three candidates together account for 70 percent of the vote. People are paying attention, but they're not unified.
What happens if Kast wins?
He'll have parliamentary backing and a mandate on security and migration. But he'll also be bringing ultraconservative views on individual freedoms and a complicated relationship with Chile's dictatorship past into the presidency. The left will have lost power after six years, and the country will have shifted significantly rightward.