Vance mocks Carney in leaked audio as Canada trade talks reach critical juncture

A recording surfaced this week capturing Vice President JD Vance at a New York fundraiser, speaking to supporters about Canada's prime minister with a mixture of warmth and contempt. Vance described Mark Carney as a "very sweet guy" whom he gets along with fine. Then he laughed. Carney, he said, walks into negotiations and puffs out his chest, declaring he will out-tough Donald Trump himself. "It's hilarious," Vance told the room, "because Carney presents this as some victory for Canada when fundamentally, like, they climb down on a lot of issues."

The audio, shared with the Canadian Press and recorded at the Southampton event, lands at the most delicate moment in months of grinding trade talks between the two countries. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 50 percent on Canadian goods, a threat he first said would take effect on August 19 before backing down on Tuesday and announcing a three-day pause. The leverage is real. The stakes are high. And now, with Vance's private words made public, the diplomatic temperature has dropped further.

What Carney appears to be negotiating—what Canadian officials say is close to agreement—involves a significant Canadian retreat. The provinces, which had imposed bans on US alcohol sales as retaliation for Trump's earlier tariff threats, would lift those restrictions. In exchange, Canada hopes to avoid the worst of the incoming duties. The White House had justified the 50 percent tariff threat by pointing to what it called discriminatory treatment: eight of ten Canadian provinces and all three territories had blocked US wine, beer, and spirits from their shelves. American producers reported substantial losses. Canadian imports of US alcohol have fallen roughly 81 percent year over year.

But getting the provinces to agree has required Carney to ask them directly to reverse course. Wab Kinew, the premier of Manitoba, described the request this week with a wry precision. "I wouldn't say he was begging us," Kinew said, "but what is a step before begging?" His counterpart in Nova Scotia, Tim Houston, confirmed the same conversation had taken place. Kinew said he respected Carney for standing up to Trump and believed Canada should hold firm. He encouraged Canadians to keep boycotting American products even if the alcohol returned to shelves. "Buy the Canadian stuff instead," he said. "We've done an amazing job of sticking together in the face of Donald Trump's tariff threats and I think we should continue to do that."

Kinew went further, offering his own assessment of American strength. "I think Donald Trump is weak," he said. "America is weaker around the world today than it was a year ago, and he's about to get slaughtered in the midterms." He invoked a principle he attributed to wise people: you cannot get a good deal with a bad person. Canada should fight, he argued, not fold.

Yet the recording of Vance's remarks suggests the American side sees the outcome differently. Whether Carney can sell a deal to his own country—and to provincial leaders who are already questioning whether he had to ask so hard—remains an open question. The leaked audio, timed to reach the press just as negotiators are trying to close the final gaps, may have made that task considerably harder.