U.S. Space Force Seeks Tighter Allied Tracking of North Korean Missile Launches

None of those details have been refined or decided at this point.
Major Matt Taylor on the still-unsettled terms of trilateral missile-warning cooperation.
Mark

Why does it matter that the Space Force set up a component in South Korea?

Mimi

It's the branch's first official component overseas, and it started operating in December. It's small, but it gives the U.S. a team on the ground focused on integrating with South Korean forces.

Mark

What's the new part, if data is already shared?

Mimi

Stafford said missile tracking data, including from the SBIRS satellites, already goes automatically to allies through early warning systems. The new push is closer integration, and a trilateral link with Japan.

Luke

Careful, though. What's actually been agreed?

Mimi

The Aug. 18 summit goal: real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning data among the three countries by year-end.

Luke

And the mechanics? Because that's a goal, not a system.

Mimi

Right. Officials said the details are being worked out at higher levels. Taylor said nothing has been refined or decided.

Mark

What does South Korea gain?

Mimi

Kim Jong Ha said space-based data would give a "3D" view, compared with the land and sea radars South Korea and Japan mostly rely on.

Luke

Inbar's view that the region gains a lot is one expert's assessment, not a measured result.

Mimi

Fair. And whether Japan joins in practice is still described only as possible.

  • A new Space Force unit in South Korea is racing to weave American and Korean launch-detection systems into one shared watch.
  • The clock is ticking toward a year-end target set at the August summit, when Biden, Yoon and Kishida pledged real-time missile warning data.
  • Officials are working to move from space-based sensing and radar blind spots toward a fuller three-dimensional view of threats.
  • Negotiations on bilateral and trilateral agreements are underway at higher levels, but no details have been finalized.

On a Wednesday at Osan Air Base, south of Seoul, officers of the newly formed U.S. Space Forces - Korea described a effort to tighten the way America and South Korea watch the skies for North Korean missile launches, with Japan possibly drawn in. It is a small step in a long human effort to see danger before it arrives, and it grew out of an August summit in which three leaders agreed that real-time warning data would flow among their countries by year's end. The specifics, however, remain in the hands of negotiators above the level of those who spoke, so the outline of what they will share is still forming.

At Osan Air Base, south of Seoul, U.S. Space Force officers stood before reporters and laid out a plan to join the way the United States and South Korea watch for North Korean missile launches. Japan, they said, may soon join as well.

The effort is driven by U.S. Space Forces - Korea, a small team that began work in December and is the branch's first official overseas component. So far it has focused on working more closely with South Korean forces and giving American troops on the peninsula better access to space-based sensors. Some data already flows automatically to allies through early warning systems, including information from the U.S. Space-based Infrared System.

The push gained political weight at an August 18 summit, where Biden, Yoon and Kishida agreed to share North Korean missile warning data in real time by the end of the year. Deputy commander Major Matt Taylor said future agreements are being discussed, but he stressed that none of the details have been settled.

The motivation is one of vantage point. South Korea and Japan rely mostly on land and sea radars, and space-based sensing would add a "3D" view, according to Lieutenant Colonel Kim Jong Ha. Analysts see the value rising as Seoul builds more anti-ballistic missile systems. What comes next depends on talks at a higher level, and the year-end deadline will show how far they get.

At Osan Air Base, south of Seoul, U.S. Space Force officials stood before reporters on Wednesday and described a plan to knit together the way the United States and South Korea watch for North Korean missile launches. They said Japan may soon be part of it too.

The effort is led by a small group of Space Force personnel, the first official component the branch has set up overseas. Known as U.S. Space Forces - Korea, it began operating in December. Its work so far has centered on two things: integrating more closely with South Korean forces, and making sure American troops on the peninsula have better access to space-based assets.

The political backdrop arrived less than two weeks earlier. At an Aug. 18 summit, President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed that by the end of this year their three countries would share North Korean missile warning data in real time. The officials at Osan said the specifics are still being worked out at higher levels.

Major Matt Taylor, the deputy commander of U.S. Space Forces - Korea, said he understood that future bilateral agreements, and possibly trilateral ones, are in the works, especially on missile warning and the sharing of that data. Gatherings are planned so personnel can compare processes and procedures. But Taylor was careful about how far things have gone: none of the details have been refined or decided, he said, though the discussions are underway.

Some sharing already happens. Master Sergeant Shawn Stafford said missile tracking data, including information from the U.S. Space-based Infrared System, which can detect missile launches, is automatically passed to U.S. allies through early warning systems.

The gap the integration aims to close is a matter of vantage point. South Korea and Japan depend mostly on land- and sea-based radars to follow launches. Lieutenant Colonel Kim Jong Ha, who commands the South Korean Air Force Space Operation Squadron, said that adding space-based capabilities would give a "3D" view of the threats.

Tal Inbar, a missile and space expert at Israel's Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, told the Seoul briefing that South Korea's push to build more anti-ballistic missile systems makes the data valuable. Information from U.S. and possibly Japanese systems would help it detect targets. "The whole region could gain a lot from cooperation and collaboration and interoperability of the systems," he said.

What to watch is the year-end target from the August summit. The shape of any bilateral or trilateral agreements, and how real-time sharing will work, remains to be settled in talks above the level of the officers who spoke at Osan.

There are future bilateral agreements and possibly trilateral agreements that are in the works, especially on the missile warning piece.
— Major Matt Taylor, deputy commander, U.S. Space Forces - Korea
The whole region could gain a lot from cooperation and collaboration and interoperability of the systems.
— Tal Inbar, Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies
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