US Oil Giants Face Billion-Dollar Windfall Amid Growing Gulf Security Risks

Six months into the war with Iran, American oil companies are printing money. Brent crude has climbed from $72 to $88 a barrel—a 22 percent jump since late February—and the major producers have posted their fattest quarterly earnings since 2022. Chevron reported $12 billion in adjusted earnings in a single quarter. ExxonMobil's upstream division, despite taking a $1.3 billion hit from Middle Eastern disruptions in the first half of the year, has more than made up the difference at the pump. The arithmetic is simple: sell less oil at much higher prices, and the bottom line swells.

But there is a darker arithmetic running parallel. The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas moved before the war began on February 28, has been largely closed to commercial traffic. Iran and Oman agreed last week to a temporary maritime route, but Iran says the strait will not fully reopen until the United States honors commitments under a lapsed interim peace deal. No one knows when that happens, or if it happens at all. For the oil companies, this means their actual production from the Gulf region is collapsing even as their profits soar. Analysts at Rystad Energy estimate that US companies' share of gas supplies from the region will fall by around 40 percent this year compared to last, and their share of oil supplies by 30 to 35 percent. The windfall is real. So is the vulnerability.

The exposure varies sharply by company. Chevron has only 5 percent of its global output in the Arab Gulf, so the closure of the strait barely touches it. ExxonMobil is a different story. Its operations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates account for 20 percent of its global upstream supply. The company has been a major partner in Qatar's liquefied natural gas sector for decades, holding stakes in several joint ventures tied to the expansion of the North Field, the world's largest natural gas field. It also holds a 28 percent stake in the UAE's Upper Zakum offshore oilfield. ConocoPhillips joined Qatar's North Field expansion projects in 2022. Occidental Petroleum operates Oman's largest producing oilfield and holds interests in UAE gas projects. Chevron, smaller in the region, operates oil assets in the Saudi-Kuwait Partitioned Zone and is exploring routes to move Iraqi crude to Mediterranean terminals, sidestepping the strait entirely.

Since the war began, Iran and Iran-backed groups have carried out at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, an independent conflict monitor. Nearly half of those strikes—48 percent—have targeted energy infrastructure: oil and gas facilities, power plants, desalination plants. The UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have suffered the highest number of successful strikes. Kuwait's Mina Abdullah and Mina al-Ahmadi refineries have been hit. So have the Bahrain Petroleum Company refinery, ADNOC's al-Ruwais Industrial City, and the Habshan gas complex. In July, a drone struck the Abqaiq processing complex in Saudi Arabia, one of the most critical nodes in the kingdom's oil infrastructure, handling more than seven million barrels per day.

The damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG export hub, has been particularly severe. In March, repeated attacks forced the plant to halt production entirely. Damage to LNG trains 4 and 6 at Rasgas destroyed roughly 13 million tonnes of capacity and will take three to five years to repair, with an estimated cost of around $3 billion. In June, an explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas project, where ExxonMobil holds a stake, killed at least 13 people. The company's share of LNG supply from Qatar is expected to fall to about four million tonnes this year, down from 13 million tonnes last year. ConocoPhillips has seen its volumes drop to one million tonne from 2.5 million tonnes. Occidental Petroleum's Shah gas project in the UAE, where the company holds a 40 percent stake, was damaged by drone attacks in March that caused a fire and halted operations. ExxonMobil's Upper Zakum production was reduced between March and May when export routes were disrupted. In Iraq, a drone attack hit the Sarsang oilfield in March, followed by an explosion at one of its storage facilities in April.

For oilfield service companies—SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes—the picture is mixed. These firms provide drilling technologies, equipment, and operational expertise to Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy across the region. Second-quarter Middle East revenues were down 8 to 10 percent compared with the previous year across the three companies, pressured by higher logistical costs, supply-chain disruptions, and delayed projects. Higher oil prices have lifted revenues elsewhere, but the Gulf operations are bleeding.

The paradox is now fully visible. ExxonMobil's planned $10 billion Upper Zakum and Qatar LNG expansions could face delays. ConocoPhillips remains exposed through its planned 42 percent stake in BP's Kirkuk operations in Iraq, a higher-risk market. Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, with presence in less volatile countries like Israel and Oman, face less severe exposure. For all of them, the question is no longer whether higher prices can offset lower volumes—they can, for now—but whether the infrastructure will still be standing when the war ends. President Trump has repeatedly warned Iran against restricting access to the Strait of Hormuz, insisting the waterway must remain open to global commerce. For companies with billions of dollars invested across the Gulf, the challenge is simpler and harder: keeping the shipments moving means nothing if there is nothing left to ship.