Thirty-odd months after the last vote, American democracy is once again being priced in dollars, and the sums are reaching a scale that would have seemed extravagant only a generation ago. As the 2026 midterms approach their final day, a projected $11.9bn is expected to be spent on the contest, with much of it flowing not through the candidates themselves but through outside committees that can accept unlimited gifts and speak on their behalf. The largest hand on that scale belongs to Elon Musk, whose giving has come to rest most heavily on Texas and a few other battlegrounds, reminding us tha
US Midterms Set to Be Most Expensive on Record, Projected at Nearly $12bn
Nearly $12bn, and the final count isn't in yet
Mark
Nearly $12bn for a midterm. What's the headline here?
Mimi
That it's about 30% above 2022, and that outside groups drive much of it. Pacs and Super Pacs account for roughly $5.5bn of the $9.5bn reported by mid-October.
Luke
Careful with the big number, though. The $11.9bn is Open Secrets' projection from past trends. The confirmed figure is the $9.5bn in filings through mid-October.
Mark
Why do Super Pacs matter so much?
Mimi
They can take unlimited money from individuals, companies and unions. They can't give it to candidates directly, but they can spend it supporting them.
Mark
And Musk?
Mimi
Almost half a billion dollars, mostly to America PAC and the Senate Leadership Fund. More than $45m of America PAC's money is in the Texas Senate race, Paxton versus Talarico.
Luke
That's the reported spending. The piece doesn't say what effect it will have on any race, and nobody should read influence into the dollar amounts.
Mark
Is this lopsided toward one party?
Mimi
Not simply. Soros-founded groups gave $102m and Bloomberg over $60m on the Democratic side, while Yass and the Uihleins each topped $100m for Republicans.
Luke
Also note the sourcing: the top-40 donor figure of $2.4bn comes from the Brennan Center, a liberal-leaning think tank, and the ad total from AdImpact. Those are different trackers with different methods.
Le Pouls
- More than $9.5bn had already flowed into the 2026 midterms by mid-October, and the final bill is heading toward a record near $11.9bn.
- Super Pacs can take unlimited sums from individuals, corporations and unions, and they are pouring that money into races without ever touching a candidate's account.
- Elon Musk has poured almost half a billion dollars into Republican causes, with more than $45m aimed at the Texas Senate race alone.
- Billionaire donors on both sides, from Soros and Bloomberg to Yass and the Uihleins, are giving at levels the Brennan Center calls the highest ever recorded for this point in a midterm cycle.
- Television advertising dominates the spending, and the final numbers will not be certain until official FEC totals are filed after the 3 November vote.
Thirty-odd months after the last vote, American democracy is once again being priced in dollars, and the sums are reaching a scale that would have seemed extravagant only a generation ago. As the 2026 midterms approach their final day, a projected $11.9bn is expected to be spent on the contest, with much of it flowing not through the candidates themselves but through outside committees that can accept unlimited gifts and speak on their behalf. The largest hand on that scale belongs to Elon Musk, whose giving has come to rest most heavily on Texas and a few other battlegrounds, reminding us that the question of who speaks loudest in a republic is never settled by the ballot alone. Whether the final tally confirms the forecast will only be known once the official filings are complete.
By mid-October, more than $9.5bn had already been spent on the 2026 US midterm cycle, according to Federal Election Commission filings. With election day set for 3 November, the independent tracker Open Secrets projects the final total will reach about $11.9bn, roughly 30% more than the 2022 cycle and the most expensive midterm on record. The projection is an estimate, since complete totals will only appear after the vote.
Much of the surge comes from Super Pacs, outside groups that can accept unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations and unions. They cannot give money directly to candidates, but they can spend it to support them. Pacs and Super Pacs together account for about $5.5bn of the spending so far, and their outlays in recent weeks have almost doubled.
The largest donors are giving at record levels. The 40 biggest donors had given $2.4bn by 14 October, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Elon Musk leads by a wide margin, with almost half a billion dollars, most of it sent to America PAC and the Senate Leadership Fund. His biggest focus is the Texas Senate race, where Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico. Other major givers include George Soros's organisations, with $102m to liberal groups, Michael Bloomberg with more than $60m, and Republican donors Jeff Yass and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, each over $100m. Crypto firms Ripple and Coinbase have added $63m.
Most of the money is going to advertising, especially on television, which AdImpact estimates at $11.15bn through October. The heaviest spending is in the Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Ohio, followed by Iowa and Maine. The full accounting will arrive only after 3 November, when official totals can be checked against the projection.
By the middle of October, more than $9.5bn had already been spent on the 2026 US midterm cycle, according to the most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission. With election day on 3 November, the independent tracker Open Secrets projects the final bill will reach about $11.9bn (£9bn). That would make it the most expensive midterm campaign on record, roughly 30% above what was spent in 2022.
The projection is an estimate. Candidates, parties and outside groups must report their spending to the FEC, but complete totals will not be available until after the vote. Open Secrets built its figure from trends in earlier cycles.
Much of the growth comes from outside groups known as Super Political Action Committees, or Super Pacs. Ordinary candidates, parties and Pacs face limits on what they can give directly. Super Pacs do not: they can accept unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations, labour unions and other political committees. They cannot hand that money to candidates, but they can spend it to support them indirectly. Pacs and Super Pacs together account for about $5.5bn of the spending reported so far, more than half the total, and their spending over the last couple of months almost doubled.
The donors at the top are giving at record levels. The Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal-leaning think tank, found that the 40 biggest donors had given $2.4bn up to 14 October, the highest figure for that point in any midterm cycle. Michael Beckel, a US campaign finance expert, said spending is shattering records, with more of the money coming from the wealthiest donors and groups.
Elon Musk is the largest individual donor by a wide margin, having given almost half a billion dollars as of October to back Republican candidates, particularly in Texas, where many of his companies are based. Most of it went to America PAC, a Super Pac he set up in 2024, and to the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. The biggest single focus has been the Texas Senate race, where Republican Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico. America PAC's investment there exceeds $45m, and it has put around $10m into each of the Senate races in Michigan and Ohio.
Other large donors appear on both sides. Geosor Corp and Fund for Policy Reform, both founded by the financier George Soros, have given a combined $102m to liberal groups. Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, is the biggest Democratic donor after Soros, with more than $60m. On the Republican side, FEC filings show that Jeff Yass, who runs one of the world's largest trading firms, and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, owners of a US business supply company, have each given over $100m to Republican causes. Crypto companies are active too: Brendan J Glavin of Open Secrets says Ripple and Coinbase combined to give $63m to Super Pacs promoting the industry's interests.
Most of the money goes to advertising, especially on television. The ad tracking firm AdImpact puts advertising spending at $11.15bn through the end of October. Beckel notes that traditional broadcast television is still the biggest beneficiary, though digital advertising keeps growing. Campaigns also pay for staff doing voter outreach, rallies and internal polling. AdImpact found the heaviest ad spending in the Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Ohio, followed by Iowa and Maine.
The final accounting will come only after 3 November, when the full FEC totals can be compared with the $11.9bn projection.
Citations marquantes
Spending in the 2026 midterms is shattering records, with more of the money coming from the wealthiest donors and groups this election.— Michael Beckel, US campaign finance expert
Ripple and Coinbase combined to give $63 million to Super Pacs promoting the crypto industry's interests.— Brendan J Glavin, Open Secrets
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