US-Iran tensions escalate as Trump questions South Korea support, negotiations stall

The war between the United States and Iran, which began on February 28 with American and Israeli strikes, has settled into a grinding stalemate. Diplomatic channels that once held promise have narrowed to almost nothing. A memorandum of understanding signed in June promised a path toward peace, but that deadline—August 17—has come and gone without agreement. Now, as the summer heat settles over the Persian Gulf, both sides are preparing for something worse.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who also leads the country's negotiating team, made the terms unmistakable during a parliamentary session. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical waterways, will remain closed to commercial traffic until the United States fulfills its obligations: lifting the blockade on Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets, ending oil sanctions, and ceasing military operations on all fronts. "Let me be clear," Qalibaf said, "until the US fulfills its commitments under the memorandum of understanding—including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, lifting oil sanctions, ending threats and military operations on all fronts, and implementing the other conditions it committed to under the memorandum—the Strait will not reopen." He added that Iran would employ both diplomatic and military means to make Washington understand the cost of its actions. The language was deliberate and hard. "The Islamic Republic of Iran is prepared, in proportion to the enemy's actions and aggression, to inflict an even heavier defeat on it."

A senior Iranian official, speaking to Reuters on Monday, confirmed what Qalibaf's words suggested: Iran has decided to shift its military posture from defensive to fully offensive. With peace talks deadlocked and no sign of movement toward ending the conflict, Tehran is preparing for escalation. The official said Iranian entities must be ready to intensify tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region. If diplomacy fails, Iran will conduct what it described as a "timely and precise" military attack to break the American naval blockade. The blockade itself has been total since the war began—a response to Iran's assertion of control over the strait after the initial strikes. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas flowed through those waters.

The diplomatic machinery, meanwhile, has ground nearly to a halt. Qatar, which has been mediating talks between the US and Iran with Pakistan's involvement, said on Tuesday that more time was needed. "We are supportive of the diplomatic effort by Pakistan that has shown seriousness in bringing parties together and finding a solution, and we do believe it needs more time," said Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari. The previous day, President Donald Trump had announced he was suspending a planned military attack after leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates asked him to give negotiations a chance. Trump, who has described the war as politically damaging and expressed a desire to exit it, had prepared a new offensive for the day after Iran rejected his proposed deal terms. But the reprieve appears fragile. Qatar noted that mediators were waiting for Iran and Oman to reach a bilateral agreement over the Strait of Hormuz before broader US-Iran negotiations could resume. Those talks between Iran and Oman, aimed at establishing a mechanism for secure commercial navigation, have dragged on without conclusion. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei attributed the delays to the complexity of the issue, the involvement of multiple actors, and what he called "destructive efforts" by malicious parties.

Regional allies of the United States are growing weary and skeptical. According to Arab and Western officials cited by The Washington Post, Gulf partners are increasingly doubtful of Trump's ability to handle the delicate diplomacy required to achieve peace with Iran. The White House rejected this assessment, with an official stating that Trump "has extraordinary relationships with all of our Gulf partners" and that the US remains in regular contact with regional allies. Yet the skepticism persists, and it has been deepened by Trump's recent public criticism of South Korea. The US president called South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and asked whether Seoul would assist in military operations against Iran. When Lee declined, Trump questioned why the United States should continue spending billions to defend South Korea from North Korea. "I said, 'Well, wait a minute, we have 39,000 soldiers over there guarding you from Kim Jong Un, your next-door neighbour, and you're not going to help us on a very easy military operation in Iran? That's strange," Trump said. He then asked, "Well, why are we involved in helping you?" Despite these remarks, Trump said he remained committed to helping South Korea, though he instructed Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce joint military exercises with Seoul, citing the relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and describing the drills as costly and inappropriate.

A separate and bitter dispute has emerged over three Iranian military pilots. In early March, Qatar's defense ministry said it shot down two Iranian Sukhoi Su-24 bombers. Iran later reported that one pilot, Majid Kazemi, was killed during an attack on Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US military installation in the Middle East. But the status of three other pilots remains contested. Iran's armed forces now claim that Qatar captured and is holding them, and that Qatari authorities have prevented them from communicating with their families or Iranian officials. Qatar denies holding the pilots and says it sent an invitation to Iran in April to brief Iranian officials on search and rescue operations, an invitation Iran has not accepted. General Mohammad Bagherzadeh of the Iranian armed forces said a team of experts from the Iranian Air Force has been waiting for months to travel to Qatar to conduct an on-site investigation, but persistent delays by Qatari authorities have made that impossible. Qatar's foreign ministry dismissed Iran's request to involve the International Committee of the Red Cross as a "media ploy."

Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln, the aircraft carrier that arrived in the Middle East in January to support the US war effort and enforce the blockade on Iranian ports, has logged more than 240 consecutive days at sea—a record-setting deployment. The ship carries more than 5,000 sailors and Marines. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, visited the carrier and praised the crew's camaraderie and resilience, noting that the Lincoln has one of the lowest numbers of mental health-related cases among the Navy's 11 active carriers. But Cooper acknowledged that prolonged service at sea is uniquely challenging and that the deployment has been, in his words, "one of the most operationally intense and consequential of the modern era." The human cost of extended deployments—on ships, on families, on the individuals who serve—has become a visible concern even as the diplomatic and military standoff shows no sign of breaking.