U.S. Envoy Says Iran War Could Last Another Year as Brent Crude Tops $117

On Friday, the price of a barrel of Brent crude briefly rose above $117, the highest level of the Iran war. Oil had been under $97 at the start of October. The jump, about 3.5% on the day, came after Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have disabled seven tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. The source also notes an accusation that President Trump had lied about attacks on ships to push up oil prices ahead of the midterms, though the text leaves out who made it. On Wall Street, three of every four stocks in the S&P 500 fell. The Dow was down about 550 points, just over 1%, by late morning.

The price spike came on a day of conflicting signals from Washington. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told the Financial Times the war could last another year, though he hoped Iran would come to the table sooner. Asked about it, Trump said the U.S. could end the war quickly but that Iran is a failing nation. In his words, the question is whether to finish it off or let it wither, because the U.S. is getting everything it wanted. He also said the U.S. could take all of Iran's oil, and that the Strait of Hormuz is America's. Trump has said for months that the war will end very soon.

The security picture looked darker. In an unclassified memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, obtained by CBS News, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton wrote that Iran had substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel abroad. He said lethal plotting had reached advanced stages in the Middle East and certain other countries. The memo names no targets or countries and does not say whether attacks are imminent. Clayton said intelligence agencies are working to downgrade sensitive intelligence so it can be shared more widely with State Department staff. CIA Director John Ratcliffe was copied.

The State Department said it will cut staffing at four embassies, in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It cited fears that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis may escalate rocket, missile and drone attacks. These are not orders to leave. All four already operate under restricted status and will stay open. Nonessential diplomats and family members left Saudi Arabia earlier in the week. On Wednesday, a U.S. official and a senior military official had told CBS the military was quietly shrinking its footprint at regional posts.

Whether the U.S. will strike again remains open. Tom Barrack, ambassador to Turkey, who has no direct role in Iran policy, was asked on Israeli army radio about a strike this weekend. He answered, "Absolutely," it could happen. Trump had said there would be no strikes before the Nov. 3 midterms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces elections Tuesday, has repeatedly vowed to topple Iran's clerical state, after two major bombing campaigns against Iran since last year.

In Istanbul, foreign ministers from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt met in an unprecedented format. They urged diplomacy and the reopening of Hormuz, and discussed the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Yemen and Russia-Ukraine. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said further U.S.-Iran escalation would leave no winners and would likely hit hydrocarbon prices hard. Italy's Antonio Tajani said the problem cannot be solved from a purely military standpoint. Meanwhile, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Moscow next week to meet Putin, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The human cost is plainest in two places. In Yemen, Houthi fighters have encircled Taiz, the country's third-largest city, since early October, blocking the road to Aden. The UN's OCHA says it is 20 days and counting. Spokesman Jens Laerke said water production has fallen by about half because diesel for the trucks is scarce. Off the UAE, analysts told Reuters that a tanker called the Gem No. 2 is the source of a slick of about 160 square km. It was hit by an unidentified projectile on Oct. 9. Emirati authorities have not named the vessel, but they confirmed a spill affecting Umm Al Quwain's beaches. Residents describe a gasoline smell. What to watch is whether a strike comes before Nov. 3.