U.S. Conducts Limited Defensive Strikes on Iranian Targets in Strait of Hormuz on Eve of Midterms

On Monday, the eve of the U.S. midterm elections, a U.S. official said American forces had carried out defensive strikes on some Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television reported that explosions were heard on Qeshm Island. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and requested anonymity, said the targets were "Iranians using surface to air missiles against U.S. assets." The Wall Street Journal reported the strikes first.

The strikes appeared to be limited rather than a return to full hostilities. Still, they came after President Donald Trump had said the U.S. would not strike Iran before Tuesday's vote. The administration was last known to have carried out attacks in early September. Thousands of U.S. troops remain in the waters off Iran enforcing a naval blockade meant to keep Iranian oil tankers from reaching global markets, and a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops are on their way to the Middle East.

The war is now eight months old. It began with Israeli and U.S. strikes on Feb. 28 that killed Iran's previous supreme leader. It has rattled global markets, wreaked havoc on Iran, and cost U.S. taxpayers at least $47 billion. It has also been a political weight on Republicans trying to hold Congress, because of its unpopularity and its effect on gasoline prices and other parts of the economy. Oil prices dropped sharply Monday as diplomacy showed signs of progress. In a speech billed as his closing argument, Trump noted the drop and played down the conflict: "I don't know if you even call it a war, because we haven't been doing any fighting for months."

Vice President JD Vance struck a measured, hopeful tone earlier in the day. He had sent a letter last week to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei. The White House has given few details about it, and Trump said it concerned helping Iran with "medical supplies and various things." Vance told reporters he had spoken with Trump about an hour earlier and that both felt "pretty good about the prospects" of a negotiated settlement. His top concern, he said, is a firm and verifiable Iranian commitment not to rebuild its nuclear program. Rezaei told state television that "the tone has completely changed" from the U.S., calling it a "very good sign." He gave no details of the letter and said he had not replied.

Two regional officials said Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials last week. They are working on a framework in which Iran would stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iran's ports, and more talks are planned this week. Both officials were relaying classified briefings from American and, in one case, Israeli officials.

Pressure runs the other way too. According to two regional officials and a third person familiar with the matter, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for another wave of strikes after the U.S. election. One official said he is working with senior U.S. officials to win a quick but extensive air campaign, and that Trump appears not to have decided. A person briefed on a weekend call said Trump would not commit to military action. A renewed war could help Netanyahu form an emergency government after he and his far-right allies lost their parliamentary majority in last week's Israeli elections. Neither the Israeli government nor the White House directly addressed the call.

Other Middle Eastern allies are urging restraint, warning that strikes would destabilize the region and could push Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis to escalate attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping, with Iran-backed Iraqi militias possibly joining. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said he spoke with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday about regional developments and continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. At the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, UAE adviser Anwar Gargash said the U.S. and Iranian positions are far apart and that if they aren't bridged, "we have to worry about the worst." Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said the next escalation "will be more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere."

Iran says it is ready for either war or diplomacy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly since the war's opening strikes, told military chiefs that any response to a threat should be immediate and without "geographic limits." Iran wants guarantees that the U.S. will honor any deal, since the U.S. and Israel twice attacked while nuclear talks were underway. October saw the most attacks on commercial ships in the Strait since March. China will send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November. What to watch: whether the Qatari-mediated talks advance, and whether Trump acts on his threat of new strikes once the votes are counted.