US Conducts Limited Defensive Strikes on Iranian Targets in Strait of Hormuz on Eve of Midterms

On Monday, the eve of the American midterm elections, a US official confirmed that American forces had carried out defensive strikes on some Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television had already reported explosions on Qeshm Island. The official, who was not authorised to speak publicly and requested anonymity, said the targets were Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets. The Wall Street Journal reported the strikes first.

The strikes appeared limited rather than a return to full hostilities. They still cut against what President Donald Trump had said earlier, that the US would not launch new strikes on Iran before Tuesday's vote. The war is more than eight months old and unpopular, and its effect on US petrol prices and other parts of the economy has been a vulnerability for Republicans trying to hold Congress. Trump's administration was last known to have attacked Iran in early September. Thousands of US troops remain in the waters off Iran enforcing a naval blockade meant to keep Iranian oil tankers from the global market, and a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops are heading to the Middle East.

Before the strikes were confirmed, Vice President JD Vance had voiced measured optimism. He sent a letter last week to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, and the White House has said little about it. Trump told reporters it concerned helping Iran with "medical supplies and various things." Vance said he had spoken with Trump about an hour before talking to reporters and that both felt good about the chances of a negotiated settlement. Rezaei told state television that the American tone had "completely changed," calling it a very good sign. He gave no details of the letter and said he had not replied.

The diplomacy is not limited to that exchange. Two regional officials said Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials last week, working on a framework in which Iran would stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift its blockade of Iranian ports. More talks are planned this week. The officials said they were relaying classified briefings from American and, in one case, Israeli officials.

Pressure is also coming from another direction. According to two regional officials and a third person familiar with the matter, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for another wave of strikes after the US elections. One official said he was working with senior US administration figures to persuade Trump to order a quick but extensive air campaign, and that Trump did not seem to have decided. A person briefed on a weekend call between the two said Netanyahu pressed for strikes and Trump would not commit. The White House did not directly answer questions about the call, and the Israeli government did not immediately comment. A return to full-scale war could help Netanyahu form an emergency government, after he and his far-right allies lost their parliamentary majority in last week's elections.

Other US allies in the region are urging restraint. A third regional official said they warn that more strikes would destabilise the area and could push Yemen's Houthi rebels to escalate attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping, and Iran-backed militias in Iraq might join in. Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman spoke by phone with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday about regional developments and the Houthis' continued attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Iran, for its part, says publicly it is ready for either war or diplomacy. It wants guarantees that Washington will honour any deal, noting that the US and Israel have twice attacked it while nuclear talks were under way. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, met military chiefs and said any response to a threat from the US or Israel should be immediate and carry no "geographic limits," urging a wider list of potential targets. October saw the most attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since March, as Iran tries to pressure the US economically into lifting the blockade. An Associated Press analysis found Iranian strikes on more than two dozen US bases have caused billions of dollars in equipment damage.

Oil prices fell sharply Monday on signs of diplomatic progress. In a speech billed as his closing argument, Trump cited the drop and played down the conflict, which has cost US taxpayers at least $47 billion. "I don't know if you even call it a war," he said, "because we haven't been doing any fighting for months."

At the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, the mood was grim. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the US and Iranian positions were far apart and that if they are not bridged, "we have to worry about the worst." Egypt's foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, said the next escalation would be more dangerous and more destructive and would lead nowhere. China said it will send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November. The things to watch now are whether this week's Qatari-mediated talks yield a framework on Hormuz and the blockade, or whether Trump approves a larger campaign.