After more than two decades of military entanglement beginning with the 2003 invasion, the United States has completed its withdrawal from Iraq, removing its final 2,500 troops by September 30, 2026, and formally closing Operation Inherent Resolve. Baghdad marks the moment as a restoration of full sovereignty, yet the departure leaves unresolved the deeper questions that have shadowed the region throughout: who holds the weapons, who protects the vulnerable, and what order fills the space that foreign boots once occupied. History rarely ends cleanly at a deadline, and Iraq's next chapter will
US completes Iraq withdrawal, but security questions linger as militias resist disarmament
Iraq's ethnic and religious minorities, including Christians, Yazidis, and Kurdish communities, face increased vulnerability to regional predation following the withdrawal of US military protection.
The withdrawal signals the end of an era in which foreign boots provided a buffer
Mark
So the US is leaving Iraq after twelve years of fighting ISIS. That's a major milestone. But you're saying the real problem is what happens next?
Mimi
Exactly. The withdrawal itself is clean—2,500 troops out by September 30. But Iraq still has dozens of armed militias that the government wants to disarm, and many of them are refusing. The deadline for that just got pushed to June 2027.
Luke
Wait—how many militias are we talking about, and how many of them actually have significant firepower? The source names three hardline groups, but it doesn't give us a sense of scale.
Mimi
That's a fair point. The reporting identifies the most powerful ones—Kata'ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada—but you're right that we don't get a full picture of how many armed groups exist or how many fighters they command.
Mark
And these groups are Iran-backed, which is why the US is worried about Iraq being too close to Tehran?
Mimi
That's the concern Mansour raised. The US and Israel are at war with Iran right now, so Washington is nervous that Iraq's militias could drag the country into that conflict, or that Iraq might be seen as an Iranian proxy.
Luke
But here's what I want to know: how much actual control does the Iraqi government have over these militias right now? Are they integrated into the security forces at all, or are they completely separate?
Mimi
The source says many Iraqi political movements are directly associated with armed organizations, which suggests they're woven into the political fabric. But it doesn't spell out the command structure or how much the government can actually enforce.
Mark
What about the minorities—the Kurds, Christians, Yazidis? You mentioned they're more exposed now.
Mimi
Yes. The US had air defense systems in Erbil, the Kurdish capital. Those are being removed. And since February, when the US-Israeli war with Iran started, there have been more drone and missile attacks from Iran-backed groups targeting US-linked sites in Erbil. The Kurds are asking Baghdad for protection, but it's unclear if Baghdad can provide it.
Luke
The source mentions three drones hit a Kurdish opposition camp on Monday, but it says responsibility wasn't independently confirmed. So we know there was an attack, but we don't actually know who did it?
Mimi
Right. Local officials said the drones were Iranian-made, but that's not the same as proving Iran or an Iranian proxy launched them.
Mark
So the real story is that the US is leaving, but the security problems—the militias, the regional tensions, the threat to minorities—those are all staying behind.
Mimi
And getting worse, potentially, because there's no longer a US military buffer. That's what Saeed meant when he said the withdrawal signals the end of an era of foreign protection.
The Pulse
- The clock ran out on twelve years of American anti-ISIS operations, with the last US troops leaving Iraqi soil by September 30, 2026 — a moment Baghdad is celebrating with four official public holidays.
- Powerful Iran-backed militias including Kata'ib Hezbollah have flatly refused to disarm, forcing the Iraqi government to push its disarmament deadline back to June 2027 and exposing the fragility of the transition.
- The removal of US air defense systems from Erbil has left the Kurdish region dangerously exposed, with Iranian drone strikes already hitting Kurdish opposition camps in the days surrounding the withdrawal.
- Christians, Yazidis, and Kurdish communities now face what analysts describe as heightened predation from both regional powers and domestic armed groups, with no clear buffer to replace the American military presence.
- Washington and Baghdad are attempting to reframe their relationship around economic and commercial ties, but US officials have conditioned deeper cooperation on Iraq achieving a secure environment — one that does not yet exist.
After more than two decades of military entanglement beginning with the 2003 invasion, the United States has completed its withdrawal from Iraq, removing its final 2,500 troops by September 30, 2026, and formally closing Operation Inherent Resolve. Baghdad marks the moment as a restoration of full sovereignty, yet the departure leaves unresolved the deeper questions that have shadowed the region throughout: who holds the weapons, who protects the vulnerable, and what order fills the space that foreign boots once occupied. History rarely ends cleanly at a deadline, and Iraq's next chapter will be written amid the competing loyalties of armed factions, the anxieties of minority communities, and a geopolitical neighborhood still very much in motion.
On September 30, 2026, the United States removed its final 2,500 troops from Iraq, ending twelve years of Operation Inherent Resolve and closing a military chapter that began with the 2003 invasion. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi declared October 1 a new day for Iraqi statehood, with Baghdad marking the occasion as a kind of independence — four public holidays and the language of recovered sovereignty.
Yet the withdrawal arrives in a landscape far from settled. Turkey still maintains forces in northern Iraq, and the Iran-backed militias that have long operated alongside — and sometimes against — the Iraqi state show little intention of laying down their weapons. The government's original plan to link the US departure to militia disarmament has already unraveled; the new deadline is June 2027, and even that is widely doubted. Groups like Kata'ib Hezbollah have given no signal they will integrate into state structures, and analysts note that Iraq's political movements are so intertwined with armed organizations that clean separation may be structurally impossible.
The consequences fall hardest on Iraq's minorities. With US air defense systems removed from Erbil, the Kurdish region has lost a critical shield against Iranian missile and drone attacks. Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani has already appealed to Baghdad for protection. In the days surrounding the withdrawal, drones struck a camp linked to Iran's Kurdish opposition inside Iraq. Christians, Yazidis, and Kurdish communities now face what one Atlantic Council fellow described as the end of an era in which foreign forces provided a buffer against both central and regional predation.
Washington and Baghdad have agreed to reorient their relationship toward economic and commercial cooperation, moving away from the security framework that defined two decades of interaction. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with al-Zaidi in July and outlined the vision — but attached a condition: a stable environment free from terrorist coercion. That environment, as of the withdrawal's completion, remains elusive.
On September 30, 2026, the United States will have removed its final 2,500 troops from Iraq, closing the book on twelve years of Operation Inherent Resolve—the military campaign launched to counter the Islamic State group as it swept across Iraqi and Syrian territory. The withdrawal represents the end of more than two decades of American military presence in the country, beginning with the 2003 invasion, continuing through a 2011 departure, and resuming in 2014 when ISIS resurged. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has framed the moment as a threshold into a new era. "October 1 will be a new day in the course of the Iraqi state, with the country free of any foreign military presence and the completion of national sovereignty over its territory," he said in a statement. Baghdad is marking the occasion with four official public holidays, treating it as an Independence Day of sorts.
Yet the withdrawal does not mean Iraq will be alone on the regional stage. Turkey maintains a military presence in the country, though Ankara announced this week it would gradually hand over a base in northern Iraq to Baghdad's control. The departure of American forces also signals a shift in how Washington and Baghdad will relate to each other. In 2024, the two countries negotiated what they termed a normalized relationship, moving away from the security-focused arrangement that had defined their interaction for more than two decades. Renad Mansour, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle that Baghdad's political aim is now to demonstrate its continued alliance with Washington. But Mansour also noted a deeper concern: Iraqi leadership worries that the United States might view Iraq and its Iran-backed militias as too aligned with Tehran, particularly given that Washington and Israel are currently at war with Iran.
The most immediate security challenge facing Baghdad is the disarmament of Iraq's armed groups and militias. When the government initially linked the end of the US military mission to militia disarmament, it set an ambitious timeline. That plan has now slipped. Prime Minister al-Zaidi announced last week that the new deadline for disarmament is June 30, 2027. The revised framework includes a ninety-day period in which armed groups would refrain from attacks in exchange for assurances that US forces would not target them, followed by a gradual handover of weapons stretching to mid-2027. The structure reflects the political reality that forcing rapid disarmament could destabilize the government itself—many of Iraq's political movements are directly associated with armed organizations, making clean separation difficult.
But several of the most powerful armed groups have already signaled resistance. Kata'ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada have given no indication they intend to surrender their weapons to the state or integrate into Iraq's armed forces, according to Alina L. Romanowski, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Mansour told DW he was unsurprised by the deadline extension, given Iraq's fractured political landscape. The country has endured more than eight years of war, the rise and fall of ISIS, and the turbulence of American withdrawal and return. "Even next year, many armed groups will continue to remain free of the central government," Mansour predicted.
The withdrawal carries particular consequences for Iraq's vulnerable populations. The departure of US troops includes the removal of American air defense systems from Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq. Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani has already requested protection from Baghdad against missile and drone attacks originating from Iran. Since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February, attacks by Iraq's Iran-backed armed groups on US-linked targets in Erbil have intensified, while Iranian strikes on infrastructure belonging to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq have also increased. On Monday, Kurdish officials reported that three drones struck a camp affiliated with Iran's Kurdish opposition; local authorities said the drones were Iranian-made, though responsibility was not independently confirmed.
Yerevan Saeed, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative and director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace at American University, expressed concern that Iraq's ethnic and religious minorities—Christians, Yazidis, and Kurdish communities—face heightened exposure from October 1 onward. "The withdrawal signals the end of an era in which foreign boots provided a buffer against central and regional predation," Saeed said. The question of what replaces that buffer remains open. Mansour notes that US-Iraqi ties will not simply end but will shift toward economic and commercial cooperation rather than security-focused engagement. In July, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister al-Zaidi and discussed how a sovereign, stable Iraq could enable mutually beneficial commercial and defense cooperation. Yet Hegseth also emphasized a condition: "Building a normal US-Iraq bilateral defense relationship requires a secure environment free from terrorist coercion." That secure environment remains uncertain.
Notable Quotes
October 1 will be a new day in the course of the Iraqi state, with the country free of any foreign military presence and the completion of national sovereignty over its territory.— Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi
The withdrawal signals the end of an era in which foreign boots provided a buffer against central and regional predation.— Yerevan Saeed, Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative
Want the full story?
Read the original at Deutsche Welle ↗