US Carrier Carl Vinson Docks in Busan as North Korea Readies Third Satellite Launch Attempt

A carrier at the dock, a launch window days away
The Carl Vinson arrived in Busan the day before North Korea's announced satellite launch window opened.
Mark

Why does a carrier arriving in Busan matter on this particular day?

Mimi

Because of the calendar. Japan's Coast Guard says North Korea plans a satellite rocket launch between November 22 and December 1, and the carrier docked on November 21.

Luke

Careful, though. The report places the two events side by side. It doesn't say the visit was arranged because of the launch notice.

Mark

Fair. What did South Korea actually say about it?

Mimi

Rear Admiral Kim Ji-hoon called it evidence of a strong combined defence posture and a determined willingness to respond to North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats.

Luke

That's the navy's characterisation. It's a statement of intent, not a description of any specific plan.

Mark

And the launch itself?

Mimi

It would be North Korea's third spy satellite attempt this year, with the rocket headed toward the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.

Luke

Worth noting the launch is planned, per Japan's Coast Guard. It hasn't happened. And the piece gives no detail on the first two attempts.

Mark

So what's confirmed?

Mimi

The carrier is in Busan, and the launch window is announced.

Luke

Everything beyond that, including how the alliance responds, is still unknown.

  • A U.S. carrier pulls alongside the dock at Busan, its fighter jets parked on deck as a visible answer to North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
  • Japan's Coast Guard has flagged a rocket launch window opening November 22 and closing December 1, with the trajectory aimed over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.
  • South Korea's navy calls the visit a strong combined defence posture, leaning on the promise of American extended deterrence to shield its ally.
  • If Pyongyang fires, it would be a third spy satellite attempt this year, and Seoul and Washington now wait to see whether the window produces a launch.

On a Tuesday in late November, the American aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson eased into the harbour at Busan, its deck crowded with fighter jets, a sight meant to tell a long-divided peninsula that the alliance with the United States still stands behind South Korea. The arrival follows a warning from Japan's Coast Guard that Pyongyang intends to fire a rocket carrying a satellite within a ten-day window, an attempt that would be its third at spy satellite capability this year. It is one more chapter in an old and uneasy story, in which each display of force and each launch notice are read as moves in a game whose ending no one can yet see.

The USS Carl Vinson, a United States aircraft carrier, pulled into the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday, November 21, 2023. Photographs carried by Yonhap show fighter jets lined up on its deck as the ship came alongside. South Korea's navy announced the arrival as a show of extended deterrence, the American pledge to bring its full military weight to bear in defence of its ally, aimed at North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

The visit comes against a backdrop of warnings from Japan's Coast Guard, which says North Korea plans to launch a rocket carrying a satellite at some point between November 22 and December 1. The rocket would be fired toward the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. If it goes ahead, it would be Pyongyang's third attempt this year to place a spy satellite in orbit.

Rear Admiral Kim Ji-hoon, speaking for the navy, said the carrier's presence showed a strong combined defence posture and a determined willingness by the alliance to respond to North Korea's advancing threats. The reporting links the carrier's arrival and the launch notice closely, but does not claim the visit was timed as a direct response. What is clear is the sequence: a carrier at anchor in Busan, and a launch that may come within days. Attention now turns to whether the window produces a launch, and how Seoul and Washington answer if it does.

The USS Carl Vinson, a U.S. aircraft carrier, pulled into a port in the South Korean city of Busan on Tuesday, November 21, 2023. Photographs distributed through Yonhap show fighter jets parked on its deck as it came alongside. South Korea's navy announced the arrival and described it as a show of extended deterrence aimed at North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

The timing is tied to what Pyongyang has signalled it intends to do next. According to Japan's Coast Guard, North Korea plans to launch a rocket carrying a space satellite sometime between November 22 and December 1. The Coast Guard said the rocket would be fired in the direction of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.

If the launch goes ahead, it would be the third attempt this year by the nuclear-armed North to put a spy satellite into orbit. The source does not detail the earlier two attempts, only that this one would follow them in the same calendar year.

South Korean Rear Admiral Kim Ji-hoon spoke for the navy in a statement on the carrier's arrival. He said the visit demonstrated a strong combined defence posture and a determined willingness by the South Korea-U.S. alliance to respond to North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats. The phrase extended deterrence, used by the navy, refers to the American commitment to bring its military power to bear in defence of its ally.

The reporting draws a close line between the two events, but it stops short of saying the carrier's visit was scheduled in response to the launch notice. What it does establish is the sequence: a U.S. carrier is docked in Busan, and within days North Korea may fire a rocket in the waters to the west and south of the peninsula.

What to watch now is whether the launch window, which opens on November 22 and closes December 1, produces an actual launch, and how Seoul and Washington respond if North Korea proceeds.

The arrival showed a strong combined defence posture and a determined willingness to respond to North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats.
— Rear Admiral Kim Ji-hoon, South Korean navy
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