Every election turns on the quiet arithmetic of who shows up, and this winter that arithmetic has come to rest on a community that has long been hard to count. In Michigan, Arizona and Georgia, Arab and Muslim American voters, many of whom stood with Joe Biden in 2020, are now weighing whether their anger over the war in Gaza will keep them from the polls or push them toward other choices. The story is less about voters crossing over to a rival than about a loyal bloc slipping away, and the margins of a few states could hinge on that quiet absence. It reminds us how a nation's politics can dep
Undercounted Arab American and Muslim Voters Could Decide 2024's Closest Swing States
The risk to Biden is subtraction, not conversion
Mark
Why does a group that's about 1% of the country matter so much?
Mimi
Because the margins in swing states are small. Biden won Arizona by 10,457 votes and Georgia by 12,670, and the author says lower turnout in these communities alone could nearly erase those.
Luke
Careful, though. That's a scenario, not a forecast. It assumes a 50% drop in votes from 2020, which the author calls possible, not likely or measured.
Mark
And the polling numbers, 59% down to 17% for Arab Americans?
Mimi
Those are striking, and Muslim Americans fell from 70% to about 10%. It would end nearly 30 years of Democratic preference among Arab American voters.
Luke
But they come from one advocacy group, the Arab American Institute, and the article doesn't describe the sample or method. Treat them as one source's figures, not settled fact.
Mark
Does leaving Biden mean voting for Trump?
Mimi
Not necessarily. Trump's 2017 order, the so-called Muslim ban, hurt him badly with these voters, and he's promised to bring it back. The more likely loss is staying home or a third-party vote.
Luke
Which is hard to verify, since the data is thin. Federal rules classify Middle Eastern and North African people as white, and the government doesn't record religion.
Mark
So the community is both pivotal and hard to see.
Mimi
Yes, and that's why groups like Emgage matter. They collected turnout data in a dozen states in 2020.
Luke
Still, even that is pieced together from several sources. What's unknown is whether anger now becomes absence in November.
Der Puls
- Polling suggests Arab American support for Democrats has collapsed from 59% to 17%, and Muslim American support from 70% to about 10%, in just a few years.
- Leaders in these communities are urging members to abandon Biden, turning a foreign war into a domestic electoral alarm.
- Analysts warn that a 50% drop in turnout could erase Biden's slim 2020 margins in Arizona and Georgia and eat a third of Michigan's lead.
- Because federal rules count these groups as white and the U.S. does not record religion, campaigns are navigating in the dark, with the swing-state turnout numbers as the only clear signal to watch.
Every election turns on the quiet arithmetic of who shows up, and this winter that arithmetic has come to rest on a community that has long been hard to count. In Michigan, Arizona and Georgia, Arab and Muslim American voters, many of whom stood with Joe Biden in 2020, are now weighing whether their anger over the war in Gaza will keep them from the polls or push them toward other choices. The story is less about voters crossing over to a rival than about a loyal bloc slipping away, and the margins of a few states could hinge on that quiet absence. It reminds us how a nation's politics can depend on people its own systems have struggled to see.
In 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes. Within that state live more than 200,000 registered Muslim voters and roughly 300,000 people with Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, and the two groups overlap. Now their loyalty is in question, and with it a piece of the reelection effort.
The strain began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the war in Gaza that followed. Many in these communities have watched the death toll climb while the Biden administration continues to back Israel, and some community leaders have urged their members to abandon Biden in November.
The polling is sharp. Arab American support for Democrats reportedly fell from 59% in 2020 to 17%, and Muslim American support from 70% to about 10% by late 2023. Yet the shift does not clearly favor Republicans. Many of these voters remember Donald Trump's 2017 travel order, which critics called the Muslim ban, and his promise to revive it keeps that memory alive.
The author argues that Biden's greater danger is subtraction rather than conversion: voters staying home or backing third parties. A 50% drop in this bloc's votes could cost him about 55,000 votes in Michigan, and could erase his narrow margins in Arizona and Georgia. Measuring the effect is difficult, since federal classification places these Americans among white voters and the government does not track religion. Still, the stakes are clear, and the turnout in those three states will show whether a small community can decide a national result.
In 2020, Joe Biden carried Michigan by 154,000 votes. Inside that state live more than 200,000 registered Muslim voters and some 300,000 people who claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa, with the two groups overlapping. Those figures now sit at the center of a question facing Biden's reelection effort: what happens if a community that backed him overwhelmingly in 2020 stays home or looks elsewhere?
The pressure traces to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and the war that followed. Members of Middle Eastern and Muslim American communities have watched the death toll in Gaza climb as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's forces continue to bombard the enclave, with the backing of the Biden administration. Numerous leaders in these communities have urged their members to "abandon Biden" in the coming election.
The polling the author cites is stark. The Arab American Institute, an advocacy group, reports that Arab American support for the Democratic Party has dropped from 59% in 2020 to 17%. Among Muslim Americans, the fall is steeper: from 70% in 2020 to about 10% at the end of 2023. If those numbers hold through November, it would be the first time in nearly 30 years that Democrats were not the preferred party of Arab American voters.
That does not mean the voters are headed to Republicans. Donald Trump was an unpopular choice among Arab and Muslim Americans in 2020, largely because of executive order 13769. Signed Jan. 27, 2017, it barred entry of immigrants from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, and critics called it the Muslim ban. It survived numerous legal challenges but was overturned by Biden soon after he took office in January 2021. Trump has promised on the campaign trail to reinstate it.
The author, a social scientist who studies how race, ethnicity and religion shape U.S. political outcomes, argues that the real risk to Biden is subtraction rather than conversion. It is plausible, the author writes, that votes cast by Middle Eastern and Muslim Americans for the two major candidates could fall 50% from 2020 as voters stay home or choose third-party candidates. In Michigan, that would cost Biden about 55,000 votes, roughly a third of his 154,000-vote margin.
Other states look exposed too. Reduced turnout in these communities alone could wipe out Biden's 2020 margin of 10,457 votes in Arizona and nearly erase his 12,670-vote margin in Georgia. Virginia and Pennsylvania are also among the swing states where these communities are concentrated. Nationally the group is small: the 2020 census, the first to record such data, counted 3.5 million Americans of Middle Eastern and North African descent, about 1% of a population of nearly 335 million.
Measuring these voters is hard. Since 1977, the federal Office of Management and Budget has classified people with ancestral ties to the original peoples of Europe, North Africa or the Middle East as white, a rule that carries into census reports and leaves the community largely invisible in administrative data and polls. Muslims are not captured either, because the U.S. does not record citizens' religious affiliation. Surveys that ask about religion usually file Muslims under "other non-Christian," while Catholics, Protestants and white evangelicals are polled often.
Some data exists. Emgage, a Muslim advocacy nonprofit, gathered figures on eligible voters and turnout in a dozen states in 2020. Combined with AP VoteCast, the Cooperative Election Survey and the Council on American-Islamic Relations, they allow general conclusions. The author notes that Arab Americans are not the only voters who may penalize Biden over foreign policy, but concludes that even alone they show how a presidential election could turn on a lesser-known bloc. Turnout in Michigan, Arizona and Georgia is the place to watch.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Numerous Middle Eastern and Muslim American leaders have called on their communities to abandon Biden in the upcoming election.— The Conversation analysis
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