UN warns of 'supersized' El Niño as global economies brace for extreme weather

The world is entering what United Nations officials are calling a danger zone of extreme weather. The World Meteorological Organization has released data showing that El Niño—a natural shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures and wind patterns—could become the strongest recorded in more than seven decades, persisting through at least February 2027. António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, described the phenomenon bluntly: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have climbed well over 2 degrees Celsius above average in recent weeks, with forecasts suggesting they could approach 4 degrees above normal—a threshold that would make this event the most powerful since at least 1950. Below the surface, temperatures in some places have spiked more than 8 degrees above average.

El Niño works by allowing warm water to spread eastward across the Pacific, releasing heat into the atmosphere and disrupting weather patterns globally. Some regions face severe drought; others brace for intensified typhoons and flooding. The phenomenon arrives on top of long-term warming driven by human activity, potentially amplifying the damage. Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the WMO, warned that El Niño has the capacity to inflict massive harm on communities and economies worldwide. The organization has launched what it describes as a major mobilization effort to circulate forecasts of potential extreme weather to as many communities as possible.

The economic consequences are already materializing. The Panama Canal, through which roughly 14,000 ships pass annually and which generates about $3 billion in annual revenue for Panama, will reduce vessel traffic by more than 10 percent in anticipation of reduced rainfall. Indonesia is battling wildfires that have consumed more than 107,000 hectares of land during this dry season, which forecasters expect to be longer than usual. Residents in Central Kalimantan reported experiencing wildfires for more than a month, with smoke thick enough to sting eyes and burn throats. The government has deployed cloud-seeding aircraft to trigger rain and extinguish fires, while also arresting dozens of people suspected of using fire to clear land.

In the Western Pacific, China is bracing for seven typhoons to make landfall this year—a frequency experts attribute to the super El Niño. July alone brought three typhoons: Bavi, Noul, and Maysak, which killed dozens. In August, Typhoon Dolphin forced more than a million people to evacuate their homes as it delivered heavy rains and destructive winds. Peru faces particular vulnerability because its coastline borders the eastern Pacific, where El Niño's effects are most pronounced. The country, along with Ecuador and parts of Brazil, has historically experienced flash flooding and landslides when El Niño brings excess rainfall, especially in urban areas where drainage systems are inadequate. The US has announced it will deploy the USNS Comfort to the Peruvian coast to provide medical assistance and technical equipment as the phenomenon intensifies.

Australia's marine ecosystems face acute risk. The country has endured repeated marine heatwaves in recent years driven by climate change, causing widespread coral bleaching and algae blooms that scientists describe as unprecedented in their damage. Alistair Hobday, chief researcher at Australia's science agency, noted that while the Great Barrier Reef may be spared the worst conditions this time, southern Australia is facing a harder hit. The region experienced an algal bloom last year, is now dealing with bird flu, and forecasts indicate marine heatwaves will intensify there this summer. Previous marine heatwaves in South Australia and Tasmania produced starving penguins, mass fish kills, suffocating algae outbreaks, and jellyfish invasions. Australia has recently introduced early warning systems for marine crises, allowing time to establish financial relief for fisheries, relocate critical species, and increase coral monitoring. Hobday acknowledged he is quite worried about what lies ahead.

Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern South America, raising the risk of droughts and wildfires. Wetter-than-average weather is expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil, and the southern United States, increasing flooding chances. Miguel Aréstegui, climate resilience lead at Practical Action, an organization that helps countries prepare for extreme weather, emphasized that concern must translate into preparedness rather than alarm. His organization has worked with partners to improve public access to early warning systems, including information on river levels, flood risks, and weather forecasts. Yet Aréstegui also pointed to deeper structural vulnerabilities that amplify these disasters: housing in exposed areas, fragile water and sanitation systems, and weak healthcare infrastructure. These problems, he noted, take far longer to resolve than responding to any single weather event. Governments worldwide are strengthening early warning systems and pre-positioning medical assistance, but the scale and intensity of this El Niño event—potentially the strongest in three-quarters of a century—has raised serious concerns for vulnerable populations across multiple continents.