UN Security Council Set to Vote Friday on Reimposing Iran Sanctions Before Deadline

On Friday, the 15 members of the U.N. Security Council are expected to vote on whether to stop sanctions on Iran's nuclear program from coming back into force. The vote comes just days before world leaders gather for the annual U.N. meeting, and European officials have been telling Tehran that its time to reach a diplomatic settlement is nearly gone.

The resolution was put forward by South Korea, which holds the council presidency this month. It needs at least nine votes to pass. If it does, it would block the sanctions from taking effect at the end of the month, the timeline set out in Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Diplomats have indicated that, whatever their differing views, there is not enough support to spare Iran from all sanctions without conditions.

The situation exists because France, Germany and the United Kingdom moved last month to trigger the "snapback mechanism." It automatically restores every U.N. sanction that was in force before the nuclear deal: a conventional arms embargo, limits on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel bans and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology. The process is built to be veto-proof. The only way to stop it is for the Security Council itself to vote to do so.

Several weeks of intensified talks between Iran and the three European countries have produced no resolution, and the signs have pointed toward sanctions returning. French President Emmanuel Macron was asked Thursday on Israel's Channel 12 whether snapback was a done deal. "Yes, I think so," he said, "because the latest news we had from the Iranians are not serious."

The day before, German and European Union leaders had told Iran in a call that it still had not taken the steps needed to prevent the sanctions. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in a statement that the window for a diplomatic solution was closing fast. She said Iran must show credible steps toward meeting the demands of France, the U.K. and Germany, which means full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and inspections of all nuclear sites without delay.

Hours later, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi again said that reimposing U.N. sanctions lacked any legal or logical justification. He also pointed to a recent agreement between Iran and the IAEA, mediated by Egypt, that would give the agency access to all Iranian nuclear sites and require Tehran to report where its nuclear material is.

The details of that agreement have not been made public. Last week, IAEA Director Rafael Grossi told the agency's board of governors in Vienna that the document gives a clear understanding of how inspection notifications will work and be carried out. He said it covers all facilities and installations in Iran, and requires reporting on the attacked facilities, including the nuclear material at them. It will, he said, open the way for inspections and access, though he did not say when they would happen.

The stakes are heightened by June's 12-day war, which Israel launched against Iran. Israeli and American forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites, leaving the status of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched nearly to weapons-grade unclear. Iran is also contending with a decades-long financial crisis.

Reimposing sanctions will likely raise tensions between Iran and the West, and how Tehran will respond is unclear. Iranian officials have in the past threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which could put Iran on the path of North Korea, which left the treaty in 2003 and went on to build atomic weapons. After Friday's vote, the thing to watch is whether the IAEA gets the access the Egypt-mediated agreement promises.